This Is a story about numbers — “One” “Two” “Three” “Four” “Five” — and what happens when you can no longer trust them. “Six, seven, eight, 10, 11” “Thirty” You see, each year, the U.S. government collects millions of gigabytes of data. You can think of all these numbers like a pair of magical glasses. Put them on, and suddenly, you can see our vast country in detail. [RELAXING MUSIC] At first, the stats might feel scattered — 135,000 cows in Hawaii and 54 ice jams in the last seven months — but keep exploring this data, and you begin to realize how irreplaceable it really is. It allows us to forecast the weather, to navigate our roads. Companies rely on the data to decide how many workers to hire, where to open new stores. It shapes what your kids learn in school — “Reading scores have dropped to their lowest levels in more than two decades” — the medicines that you can take. And more than anything, this data is used to determine where your tax dollars are spent. The truth is, all this data is the closest thing we’ve got to seeing the truth. But right now the Trump administration is at war with these numbers. “Those numbers are made up by Democrats. Can you believe it?” And our ability to see the truth is slipping away. [SUSPENSEFUL MUSIC] Authoritarian regimes impose their authority by insisting that people believe things that are obviously not true. The point is that the regime is more powerful than the truth. By going after the data and inventing his own narrative, Trump is following a familiar pattern. Almost immediately after his second inauguration, Trump’s mass deletion campaign began. The government’s 13 core statistical agencies were stymied, losing over 20 percent of their staff, and entire data sets were discontinued. Cases against Jan. 6 rioters, the Drug Abuse Warning Network, the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program and the Farm Labor Survey — these are just a few of the deleted data sets that informed the public, helped the government do its job and were critical in holding the government accountable. Take what happened a few months ago, when Trump said, “In one year, we have lifted 2.4 million Americans off of food stamps.” Trump claims these people no longer need SNAP, but experts believe that without it, they’ll go hungry. So who’s right? Well, we won’t be able to tell. Because back in September: “The Trump administration is scrapping the annual report on hunger” “claiming they do nothing but fearmonger.” The National Law Enforcement Accountability Database was an internal tool that helped the government track federal police conduct, preventing officers from jumping between agencies to avoid accountability. “A database with information on nearly 150,000 federal officers — gone.” The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System was created in the 1980s, when scientists were trying to figure out why the United States had one of the highest infant mortality rates among developed countries. The data from the program helped establish policies and practices that cut infant mortality nearly in half. But the Trump administration ended the collection of new data, suspended access to historic data and placed the program staff on leave. The website now comes with a disclaimer: “This page does not reflect reality, and therefore, the administration and this department reject it.” [INTRIGUING MUSIC] The Trump administration’s deletion campaign has extended beyond removing data sets. He’s also gone after those who report findings he doesn’t like. Take what happened last summer. “We are a minute and a half away from the July jobs report.” The monthly jobs numbers, often seen as a barometer of the nation’s economic health, were a huge disappointment. “Jobs came in at 73,000. That was lower than the expectation, which called for 110,000 jobs.” Trump was furious. “He is firing the commissioner of labor statistics.” “I believe the numbers were phony. So you know what I did? I fired her.” This February a team of researchers at the Federal Reserve published a study that showed that U.S. firms and consumers were paying nearly 90 percent of the cost of Trump’s tariffs. The finding was hardly surprising. But just look at what Trump’s appointees said with a smile. “It’s, I think, the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve System. The people associated with this paper should, presumably, be disciplined.” By deleting data and punishing the number makers, Trump has cleared the way for his own sort of magic, Trump math, where numbers suddenly fit his political agenda. At times the claims are just bizarre, like when Trump claimed he would lower drug prices by “1,000 percent, 600 percent, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable.” Or when Pam Bondi claimed that Trump saved three-quarters of the country from overdosing. “Your D.O.J. agencies saved — are you ready for this, media? — 258 million lives.” “Bondi is saying that if not for Trump, about 75 percent of Americans would be dead.” Trump wants us to believe his lies, even when they contradict what’s right in front of us. “Inflation is totally neutralized.” “Prices are way down.” “Grocery prices, energy prices, airfares, mortgage rates, rent and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast.” He’s insisting that these problems are not real and therefore that the government doesn’t need to address them. “President’s tariffs are pushing prices higher.” “Highest gas prices in four years.” This is the opposite of what governments are supposed to do. And we already know that this willingness to lie about numbers can be deadly. “I just want to find 11,780 votes.” “This is the United States of America, and we’re watching protesters try to undermine the course of an election through force.” “Four people died on the Capitol grounds.” Look abroad, and there are ample examples of how much more damaging this type of math can be. Officials in Greece spent years lying about the size of the government’s deficit. And when this guy tried to publish the true deficit numbers — “The accounting systems are still in need of improvement.” — he was charged with complicity against the state. The false statistics accelerated the country’s debt crisis. “A country on the brink of collapse.” “Endless lines at A.T.M.s, with withdrawals limited to just $67.” Misrepresented statistics also proved deadly in South Africa at the height of the AIDS epidemic. President Thabo Mbeki woefully underrepresented the scale of the crisis. “Thabo Mbeki has questioned the link between H.I.V. and AIDS.” He cited outdated data and misrepresented findings about lifesaving drugs. Collectively, these policies led to over 334,000 preventable deaths. Imagine what could happen if we allow this to continue in the U.S. Imagine being told that hunger is at an all-time low when lines in your neighborhood go around the block as people line up for food. Imagine not being able to access a medication you need because the government withheld the data that showed its effectiveness. Imagine election officials facing criminal prosecution for announcing the correct results. Accurate and well-reported data is an essential element of a well-functioning democracy. The true victim in the war on numbers isn’t just the data; it’s you.
