There may be new hope for a cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel that would see all the remaining hostages in Gaza returned and probably result in long-term peace. However rather a lot stays up within the air, and there are main gaps between either side on key points.
Whereas U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism that the conflict might quickly be over, nothing is ready in stone but and negotiators are at the moment in Egypt hashing out the main points of a possible settlement.
Right here’s a breakdown on how we bought right here and what we all know—and don’t—about the place issues stand.
How We Obtained Right here
Trump final Monday unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace plan on the White Home whereas internet hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The plan requires Hamas to launch the 48 remaining hostages in Gaza, of whom 20 are nonetheless believed to be alive, in trade for Israel releasing 250 Palestinian prisoners dealing with life sentences and 1,700 Gazans detained for the reason that conflict started. Underneath the plan, Israel would withdraw its forces in Gaza to an agreed-upon line to facilitate the trade, earlier than ultimately finishing up a phased withdrawal from the coastal enclave.
Amongst different steps and provisions, Trump’s plan additionally states that Hamas should disarm and stipulates that the group will play no position sooner or later governance of Gaza. The proposal envisions day-to-day providers in Gaza being overseen by a transitional, technocratic committee of Palestinians. A world transitional physique, chaired by Trump, would oversee this committee in addition to Gaza’s redevelopment, and the US—working with Arab and worldwide companions—would instantly deploy a brief Worldwide Stabilization Drive within the territory.
Although Trump beforehand known as for Gaza to be emptied out and for the US to take over, this plan states: “Nobody might be compelled to depart Gaza, and those that want to go away might be free to take action and free to return.”
Although the plan incorporates particulars that run counter to Netanyahu’s said targets in Gaza, corresponding to providing Hamas members amnesty in the event that they decide to peace and lay down their arms (Netanyahu has mentioned he desires to destroy Hamas), the Israeli prime minister final Monday introduced that he accepted Trump’s plan.
The backlash that Israel confronted over a strike focusing on Hamas leaders in Doha final month reportedly helped open a door for Trump to lift strain on Netanyahu to just accept the plan. Netanyahu was additionally pressured by Trump into apologizing to Qatar over the failed and controversial strike.
What We Know
After Trump warned Hamas final week that it had till this previous Sunday to succeed in an settlement, the militant group on Friday introduced that it had accepted facets of Trump’s proposal. Hamas mentioned it was prepared to launch all of the remaining hostages if “the sphere situations for the trade are met.” Hamas additionally mentioned it was prepared at hand over administration of Gaza to a technocratic physique.
Hamas has made earlier provides alongside the identical strains, and its assertion was vaguely worded and didn’t tackle main elements of Trump’s plan.
However Trump responded positively to Hamas’s assertion. “Based mostly on the Assertion simply issued by Hamas, I consider they’re prepared for an enduring PEACE. Israel should instantly cease the bombing of Gaza,” Trump mentioned in a publish on Fact Social.
Behind the scenes, Netanyahu was reportedly stunned by Trump’s response and seen Hamas’s assertion as a rejection of the 20-point plan, which reviews counsel prompted frustration from the U.S. president towards his Israeli counterpart.
However in public, Israel has expressed help for shifting ahead with the preliminary section of Trump’s plan. In a press release on Friday, Israel additionally mentioned it was prepared to maneuver ahead with the “first section” of Trump’s plan for the “quick launch of all hostages.” However Israel made no agency commitments to a cease-fire.
Israel additionally mentioned it will deal with defensive operations in Gaza and halt the trouble to take over Gaza Metropolis. Trump on Saturday expressed appreciation that Israel had “quickly stopped the bombing.” However Israeli strikes have reportedly continued in Gaza, and dozens have been killed within the territory since Friday, in accordance with Gaza’s Well being Ministry.
Oblique talks at the moment are being held between Israel and Hamas in Egypt to iron out the remainder of the main points. Trump mentioned these discussions might take “a few days,” and he has continued to strain either side to wrap negotiations up shortly.
The talks are being held on the Purple Sea resort metropolis of Sharm el-Sheikh. Israel’s negotiation group is being led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, whereas the Hamas delegation might be led by chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. Worldwide mediators from the US, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey are additionally anticipated to be current.
Trump has despatched U.S. particular envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former senior advisor, to take part within the talks. Kushner, who served in a extra formal and public-facing position within the first Trump administration however continues to carry sway in an unofficial capability, helped craft the 20-point peace plan with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Although Trump’s plan for Gaza is sort of broad and delves into many future points, the talks in Egypt are anticipated to start by specializing in an preliminary section of a cease-fire, together with a hostage trade and the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops.
What We Don’t Know
The largest unknown is whether or not the negotiations in Egypt, which started on the eve of the second anniversary of the beginning of the conflict (Oct. 7), will end in a deal.
Worldwide mediators have tried and failed for months to succeed in a brand new settlement after a two-month cease-fire collapsed in March and Israel resumed airstrikes. Although each Israel and Hamas have blamed the opposite for the deadlock, the truth is that either side have performed a task in blocking progress on a brand new truce and hostage-exchange settlement.
However there’s important momentum surrounding these talks in comparison with previous negotiations, with Trump elevating strain on each events to wrap up the conflict. Nonetheless, neither aspect seems wanting to make the primary transfer.
Despite the fact that Dermer was tapped to guide Israel’s delegation, he has apparently not but traveled to Egypt and reportedly won’t go till a “later stage.” This might point out that Israel desires to see whether or not there are preliminary breakthroughs earlier than sending Dermer in.
Israel has additionally signaled that it’s able to ramp up the conflict if the hostages are usually not launched. “If Hamas refuses to launch the hostages, the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will once more improve the depth of fireside till Hamas is defeated and all of the hostages are launched,” Protection Minister Israel Katz mentioned on Sunday.
That mentioned, the U.S. is cautiously optimistic concerning the prospects for a deal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday mentioned that that is “the closest we’ve come to getting all the hostages launched.”
However there are a lot of particulars to work out, together with exactly how the hostages might be returned. Rubio on Sunday conceded that the logistics of this are tough, significantly as Gaza is a conflict zone that’s been devastated by two years of combating. It’s unclear if Hamas even is aware of the place all the hostages, whether or not alive or useless, at the moment are. Hamas has mentioned that some our bodies of hostages could be buried below rubble.
There are additionally prone to be disagreements over the Israeli withdrawal line in Gaza, in addition to the timeline for the pullout. To date, solely obscure particulars have been supplied on what an Israeli withdrawal will appear to be.
Trump on Saturday shared a publish on Fact Social with a map displaying the preliminary withdrawal line Israel has agreed to, which he mentioned has been shared with Hamas. He mentioned that after a cease-fire begins and a hostage and prisoner trade takes place, the situations for the subsequent section of the withdrawal might be created.
Hamas desires Israeli troops out of Gaza, however Netanyahu has signaled {that a} full withdrawal isn’t up for dialogue—making this among the many many points that would throw chilly water on the negotiation course of.
We additionally don’t know whether or not Hamas will log out on an settlement that requires it to disarm and play no position in Gaza’s future governance. Hamas didn’t tackle laying down its arms in its Friday assertion on Trump’s plan. Although Hamas mentioned it was prepared at hand over energy to a technocratic physique, it additionally didn’t rule out enjoying a task in Gaza’s postwar authorities.
If Hamas is unwilling to compromise on these points, it might upend negotiations and derail Trump’s plan. Israel and the US have constantly maintained that Hamas can not retain energy in any type and should be eliminated as a menace.
Trump over the weekend conceded there are prone to be “some adjustments” to the plan in the midst of negotiations, however he additionally mentioned that Hamas will face “obliteration” if it doesn’t hand over energy.
The query of Palestinian statehood additionally stays up within the air. Netanyahu has repeatedly mentioned Israel opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, characterizing it as a hazard to Israel. However the Trump plan, in concept, leaves the door open for a two-state answer. The negotiations in Egypt are centered on addressing a hostage trade and cease-fire first, however points like this are indicative of the key tensions enveloping the discussions—with the potential to throw a wrench in the whole course of.
It’s additionally unclear what a deal will imply for Netanyahu’s political future. Netanyahu leads a flimsy coalition authorities, and a few far-right members have repeatedly threatened to depart the federal government if he strikes ahead with a plan to finish the conflict. However opposition chief Yair Lapid has mentioned that he’s supplied to supply Netanyahu with the mandatory political help to see this plan via if the prime minister agrees to set a date for elections. In the meantime, Netanyahu can be on trial over corruption costs.
For over a yr, Netanyahu has been dogged by allegations of constant the conflict in Gaza for private causes and his political survival. If he doesn’t transfer ahead with Trump’s plan, Netanyahu might face important public backlash in Israel—polling exhibits a majority of Israelis need the conflict over and the hostages residence.
The conflict in Gaza has additionally made Netanyahu a global pariah. There’s an Worldwide Prison Courtroom warrant out for Netanyahu’s arrest for alleged conflict crimes in Gaza. Underneath his management, Israel has grow to be more and more remoted from the worldwide neighborhood because it’s confronted worldwide criticism over its dealing with of the conflict—together with widespread accusations of genocide. Whereas the US stays a detailed ally of Israel, Trump has clearly misplaced persistence with Netanyahu. Polling exhibits that Individuals more and more have unfavorable views of Israel because the conflict in Gaza continues.
Netanyahu is dealing with strain from all sides—and is backed right into a nook. However he’s additionally the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s historical past and a confirmed political survivor. Nonetheless, it stays an open query whether or not his prime ministership and Trump’s peace plan can each survive.
