There is little that is dull or small in the state of Texas, and certainly not its politics. Next week brings a high-stakes showdown in the Senate Republican primary, one worthy of the state’s long history of colorful political campaigns. John Cornyn, a Bush-era Republican, will try to hold onto his seat against challenges from Ken Paxton, the fiery, Trump-aligned state attorney general, and Wesley Hunt, a two-term congressman and a staunch supporter of the president. The result will signal the direction of the Republican Party in a state that has steadily become more conservative in recent years.
Times Opinion assembled a panel of experts from Texas of various backgrounds and political views for a new installment of The Choice, aimed at guiding voters through the complex issues in this election. This is the first of several panels we will convene in a year of critical midterm races that will serve as a referendum on President Trump’s tenure in office. Texas may provide a clue as to whether far-right ideology has gained an intractable hold on red-state America, or if there are cracks the Democrats can exploit.
The Choice was prepared by Times Opinion editors, based in part on a round-table conversation with the panelists held in Austin, Texas, on Feb. 11.
Our Panel’s Ratings
We asked panelists to rate the three leading candidates on a scale from 0 to 10, and averaged their scores.
Times Opinion
How do you rate the Trump administration’s handling of border security, and how will it resonate in Texas?
James Henson Government professor in Austin
The issue with border security in Texas right now is it’s a dog-catches-car situation. It’s perceived by a lot of people as kind of being solved. We dined out for a long time in terms of reporting our polling data by saying: If you wanted to unify Republicans, talk about border security, and you’d get 50, 60, 70 percent of Republicans agreeing with you.
Now that border security seems to be solved, well, you’ve seen its salience decline. And when you break down the policy applications, it introduces a lot of divisions among Republicans that were not there when the focus was simply: We need to enforce the border.
Brendan Steinhauser Consultant in Austin
In Texas among Hispanic Republican voters, I think the president has lost some of those people because of the government’s tactics. They’re like: Wait, we were for this, not for that.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
Everything that I see from the Rio Grande Valley and those counties that were along the border, those Latinos are staying strong. They stand by Trump’s stance on the border on deportations.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
When the administration first started out, there was stronger support. But now you’re seeing ICE guys shoot people and it becomes this chaotic thing. And polling reflects that. So the Republican Party has to make a decision: Are they going to understand this and find a way to scale it back, or are they just going to keep going full throttle?
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
There is very little disagreement about border security. It’s how you go about it. Having a militarized force — that for all the world looks like security forces in a banana republic — in a place like Minnesota is not the answer.
Suzanne Bellsnyder News publisher in West Texas
Everybody wants a secure border. So that’s not really where the conversation needs to be. Cornyn is probably the one that has the most pragmatic approach to all of it. The other two candidates seem to be more firebrand on that issue.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
None of these guys are going to come out and say ICE raids are bad, Trump is bad — they’re not going to do that. So for primary voters, it comes down to: Are these candidates going to support Trump?
I think a lot of folks nationally still don’t understand that when it comes to what policies they like, what policies they disagree with, there’s not just one thought within the Hispanic community in Texas.
For the general election, that’s where the big question is. But is that going to cause somebody to stay home and vote for the Democrat, who’s going to be branded open borders? Not likely.
Times Opinion
Which of the three candidates do you have confidence in to advocate for Texas on this issue in Washington?
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
I think Ken Paxton is most aligned with President Trump on America-first policies. And when he gets into the Senate, that is going to be his main focus. And that national issue problem is a big issue for us Texans because we don’t look at it as us against Latinos. This is us against the world in a threat to national security.
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
Ken Paxton has built a brand on securing the border. Because if you’re a member of Congress, you can talk, you can make speeches on C-SPAN. But Ken Paxton has actually sued the Obama administration. He’s sued the Biden administration on many issues. I would definitely say that he’s come across very, very tough on that issue.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
It’s obvious all three support Trump. But I think that’s a glaring weakness of Paxton — that he sued on DACA, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy. That’s going to be a big issue that the Democrats are going to bring up, and it’s going to be hard to defend.
I’m worried about Texas staying red. And I’m worried about which Republican candidate will be the weakest when it comes to Talarico attacking and having national money behind him. I’m worried about what Paxton did on DACA.
Morgan Cisneros Eakin Former chair of the Cameron County G.O.P.
I first became a party chairman in the 2010s, and in the years I served in office and being active as a Republican grass-roots member on the border, Cornyn has been down there. In my experience, he always reached out to us.
Ken Paxton’s visits to the area are essentially photo ops, in my view. That says a great deal.
Our experience has been that people who are not actually present at the border have a habit of gaslighting us about what is actually occurring. Why would we expect any different from Attorney General Paxton?
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
A lot of it depends on what is happening when we get to November, obviously. We all know that voters’ memories can be rather short, but I think the border is going to be a sustaining issue, particularly with Latino voters who have been profiled.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
On checks and balances, Ken Paxton is going to do exactly what Donald Trump or the Republican leadership in Washington says.
And while the Republican caucus has largely, if not exclusively, been pretty spineless in terms of assertion of the separation of powers, I think John Cornyn is our best hope.
Ross Hunt Pollster and analyst in Dallas
Cornyn is getting punished because people are trying to say he’s not as close to Trump, even though he has voted with him something like more than 90 percent of the time. But he has at times demonstrated an independence that would allow him some flexibility that does exist even inside the G.O.P. primary electorate.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
And that is where the debate is. We might see that degree of independence as an asset. But if you’re asking the voters: Do you want someone to be truly independent of Trump? A lot of the Republican red voters, that’s exactly what they don’t trust about John Cornyn.
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
When you ask the question, who would most stand with President Trump on that issue in supporting ICE, supporting law enforcement, deporting the illegal immigrants that are here, I think you look at Ken Paxton or Wesley Hunt.
Of those two people, Wesley probably has a little less baggage, but Ken Paxton has a track record of fighting on this issue for many, many years. I just don’t think that the Republican primary voter electorate is going to be with John Cornyn on this issue.
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
As a Democrat, I see the world very differently than many of the Republicans here, but I think the grounding issue is — someone said it a minute ago — that the dog has kind of caught the car. For so long, Republicans in Texas were all down on the border doing their photo ops and creating the boogeyman for everyone to be afraid of. Fear has been very successful for them.
They’ve now taken what had been a winning issue away from themselves.
Democrats fear John Cornyn because he is a person who is seen as more policy-oriented, a person who is more reasonable. But I’m doubtful that he’s the one who’s actually going to make it through.
Times Opinion
Let’s turn to the issue of affordability and the Texas economy. Where does the economy stand and how do you see the candidates approaching it?
James Henson Government professor in Austin
If you look at the macroeconomic indicators, they’re getting better, but people are experiencing the economy in very different ways. They’re most concerned about everyday prices, health care prices and the price of housing.
The economy applies a little bit less to the race we’re looking at, but it’s still going to be in the ether out there. Republican candidates are still going to be able to run on a healthy macroeconomy. But I do think they’re going to have to do some campaigning on affordability by the time we get to the general election.
Ross Hunt Pollster and analyst in Dallas
I think Paxton will fail to communicate on affordability. I don’t know if that’s necessarily a strategic mistake on his part. It’s not the differentiator that voters are looking for right now.
Trump seems to have an instinct for knowing when to pivot back to things, but I don’t see Paxton doing that. And so I think in the fall that’s a potential liability.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
That’s the problem. You can’t differentiate between the candidates. They all talk about what the problem is. But they don’t differentiate what the solutions are. In my view, there is no Texas miracle. There’s some happenstance. If there’s a Texas miracle, it’s that we have more oil than anyone else. We have a large population, a large work force. We have deepwater ports. There’s nothing miraculous about it. But when it comes to affordability, whether it’s renting or purchasing and things like that, nobody really seems to have a solution.
Brendan Steinhauser Consultant in Austin
We’re in the culture war aspect of the campaign. It’s what’s on TV. It’s what everybody’s talking about nationally. It’s who’s fighting, how angry are they, how closely are they standing with the president. But I do feel confident that if John Cornyn wins the nomination, he’s going to pivot to talk about the economy. Paxton may not. That’s not in his DNA.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
The other side is going to bring it up. That’s what matters.
Morgan Cisneros Eakin Former chair of the Cameron County G.O.P.
Texas is a huge state. So when it comes to the ability to feed our families, they’re really going to have to discuss the gamut of humanity if they’re going to be appealing to as many Texans as possible.
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
The cultural issues are really what young people care about the most. Who’s the most pro-life, who is standing most closely with President Trump, who is the boldest fighter against illegal immigration?
And from everything I’m seeing, it appears to be that Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt’s support among young people is pretty rock solid.
Ross Hunt Pollster and analyst in Dallas
Christian makes a really good point that the culture war is a big draw for people who are inside the G.O.P. Everyone’s competing on that. One of the ways in which the economy and affordability could show up in the Republican primary is in terms of turnout — by voters not showing up.
You could have independent voters who are trying to figure out, OK, who cares about me, who cares about my issues — if their issue is affordability and the economy is not being addressed, maybe they vote for Talarico or Crockett if they’re an independent.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
The economy is not going to be a driving factor in this primary election. It’s a culture war. What does it mean to have a house when you don’t have a country?
Suzanne Bellsnyder News publisher in West Texas
I live in a county that’s bright red. I also work in a county next to me that’s just as red. I recently went to a candidate forum there and I asked the question: Do you feel the Senate candidates are speaking to the issues that matter in communities like ours? Not a single person raised their hand.
They said there is a complete disconnect between Senate messaging and our lived experiences.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
We can sit here and talk about the primary. But when it comes to the general, the Democrats are going to focus on affordability because they’re focusing on Trump. Democrats are sending money to so many races in Texas. Texas would be the craziest win for them. So we’ve got to look at our candidates and say: What happens if President Trump doesn’t focus on affordability? What happens in the general in a tight race if President Trump has another message?
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
Sitting from my perspective, I think most voters think about which one of these candidates fits most on the culture war and takes the side of President Trump. And if that’s the case, it’s very likely that someone will be elected who will have a harder time in the general election.
Times Opinion
Is character an issue in this race? And if so, does that favor one of the candidates?
Brendan Steinhauser Consultant in Austin
It doesn’t seem to matter to the voters. There’s plenty of evidence of that. It should, in my opinion. In reality, it doesn’t.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
Intrinsically, character always matters. In every endeavor. But you’re right. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to much matter at the very highest level. In the Senate race, it’s ideological purity.
Suzanne Bellsnyder News publisher in West Texas
I get the sense that character does matter. What I think is different about the Paxton issue is that it’s character coupled with what I consider abuse of office. And as that message penetrates a little bit, then maybe it becomes a disqualification for him. My own little focus group, the entire messaging that they’re getting is about character. They’re getting no messaging on policy. And I got a lot of thumbs down on Paxton.
We all go to church every Sunday. I mean, this stuff does matter to us. Now, is it enough to make a difference in this race? I don’t know. But to say that character doesn’t matter — I think it’s a shortcoming.
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
I think that character does matter to voters. That being said, though, if you’re propping yourself up as a seminarian like Talarico, then if you make a mistake, you’re going to be viewed much more harshly. Ken Paxton, he’s not really propped himself up to be a perfect Christian. They’ve tried to impeach Ken Paxton, primary him, there were charges against him and investigations into him. It didn’t work. He’s been able to successfully compare himself to President Trump, of whom he’s very reminiscent, actually.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
The people that I’m hearing from, the ones that are troubled by it are voting for Wesley Hunt. They’re not going to go and vote for John Cornyn. I think that John Cornyn is running a decent campaign — for 2001.
This idea that with Paxton, well, you’re going through a divorce. Or you might be slimy. That doesn’t work in 2025 or in 2026. Donald Trump is not the preacher in chief; that’s not what the primary voters wanted. They wanted a fighter.
Times Opinion
What’s the problem with John Cornyn? He doesn’t have a big scandal.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
I think the Second Amendment vote in that Senate was a big killer in this race today.
The Second Amendment in Texas is huge. I love my guns, and I’m willing to protect my family with them if I ever need to. And to take that away from somebody and even have that on the table, it’s not going to work with Cornyn. Leave Texans and their guns alone.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
People don’t trust John Cornyn when Donald Trump’s not in office.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
Talarico’s broader political strategy is trying to get people to look at character.
And in my opinion, Paxton, who faced impeachment and allegations of adultery, would be a ripe target.
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
If the voters were thinking about electability, it should be really important because, if it does wind up being Talarico and Paxton, character will become a real pivotal issue for the general election.
Times Opinion
It seems like it wasn’t just about the Second Amendment in terms of why people are lukewarm on Cornyn. Do you have a broader theory as to what the problem with him is?
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
Yeah, I think there’s just an anti-incumbency approach with younger voters and Republican primary voters. People want someone that will come in, bring a fresh set of eyes, new blood. And they want somebody that’s a fighter.
The perception among a lot of the primary voters is that when you go to Washington, you might fight each other on Fox News or CNN, but you’re all buddy-buddies behind the scene. It’s like one big club. Primary voters want somebody that’s going to go there, be a brass knuckle fighter, and stand up and codify President Trump’s executive orders.
John Cornyn has voted with President Trump. But that’s not the point. It’s whether you stand with him. There’s a reason why President Trump has not endorsed an incumbent who should have very well gotten the endorsement. He expects loyalty.
James Henson Government professor in Austin
Character is a factor, but it’s already baked in — and in a way that is very different depending on your perspective. When you mention character, half the room thinks of Paxton. But there is another aspect of the character argument that Paxton supporters are likely embracing to the effect of, “no, character is loyalty to somebody else,” and that someone else is President Trump. Coupled with the anti-incumbent, anti-institutional mood in the Republican base, this translates into flipping the character issue against Cornyn.
Ross Hunt Pollster and analyst in Dallas
I think that there are different aspects of anti-incumbency. People are conflating Trump’s brand of anti-incumbency with the most extreme form of ideological extremism on the right, and they’re saying they’re the same thing. And this is just kind of forgetting history.
When Trump ran in 2016, he was not the most ideologically far-right candidate. He appealed to people because he was a fighter, because he was independent of the party apparatus. A lot of people will say: Well, because Texans elected Trump, they don’t care about character. But I think it’s a narrow understanding of what character is. Trump was a fighter, independent, courageous. These are virtues. Does Paxton have those same virtues?
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
Charisma plays a role. And I’ve never heard even the most ardent Paxton supporters state that he’s an exciting, charismatic kind of guy. Trump had that going for him.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
Part of being a fighter today is engaging the media.
You watch what Wes Hunt does on Fox News, on podcasts about men’s issues, that’s the kind of candidate I like. He can take on the left’s talking points, dismantle their arguments and extend an olive branch and say: Why don’t you join us? Cornyn’s not a fighter and Paxton’s not a persuader.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
If you can’t stomach voting for Ken Paxton and you don’t like Cornyn, you’re going to go and vote for Wesley Hunt.
I’ve had him on my show. And each time he comes on, I get more and more people who go: I like that guy. Because he comes across as someone with leadership and he comes across as pro-MAGA.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
West Point graduate, Apache helicopter guy. I think he’s going to be very effective.
Times Opinion
How do you all feel about the direction of the Republican Party here in Texas? Is it charting the right course?
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
Absolutely not.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
Absolutely not.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
No.
We’re tearing our party apart and eating our young.
Suzanne Bellsnyder News publisher in West Texas
We’re not talking about kitchen table issues, stuff that really matters. We’re doing all this culture war stuff. And that’s great for winning elections, but that is not really great for building a long-term strategy for our state.
We have water issues. We have infrastructure issues. We’ve got all this stuff that is not working for people. And so we’re still winning elections, but that will end. There’s a well-funded, yearslong orchestrated effort to build a funded grass-roots organization around people like Ken Paxton and his acolytes. The Republican Party has gone off the rails because of that effort.
Ross Hunt Pollster and analyst in Dallas
I would argue that the rightward shift in the party has been driven, in part, by external forces. Texas is no longer a walled garden, where the forces inside the state are the only ones determining what’s going on. An influx of out-of-state money and influences ranging from billionaires like Jeff Yass to Elon Musk, they’re reshaping the politics.
Morgan Cisneros Eakin Former chair of the Cameron County G.O.P.
I served on the board of directors for the Republican Party of Texas, and I’ve seen firsthand what the influence of Tim Dunn money has done. When you talk about the future of the party and its effects, the state party is no longer representative of Republican voters in Texas.
Brendan Steinhauser Consultant in Austin
I haven’t got a chance to pick on our Democratic friends, but I do think a lot of those cultural issues come from the left; the right is responding to that. And you could say we might be over-responding. We might not be.
That culture war is happening on both sides.
Times Opinion
Given what you just described, who does it favor?
Brendan Steinhauser Consultant in Austin
You would expect it to favor a candidate like Paxton in this Senate race.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
It’s so hard for me to see grass-roots numbers there for Wesley Hunt. I’ve seen the responses from these people at the doors. I’ve seen the data; I think the grass-roots voters will eventually stand behind Paxton. Cornyn has never experienced this type of primary ever, ever.
Christian Collins Founder of Texas Youth Summit
If you have a very tough primary, where John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are really fighting it out in the runoff, I think that plays to the Democrats’ favor in the general election because the Republicans have to come together, and they might not.
Suzanne Bellsnyder News publisher in West Texas
Yeah, Cornyn’s the incumbent. So Paxton’s challenging. He’s the one taking on the division of the party.
Artemio Muniz Lawyer in Houston
When I entered the Republican Party of Texas, I remember the convention having 12,000, 14,000 delegates. The guy at the beginning would say: Welcome to the world’s largest delegate convention. At the last one, only a fraction of the people showed up. The Republican Party in Texas is on life support right now, the actual organization.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
The reason we started winning races in the late ’80s and became absolutely dominant in 1994 was because the Republican Party had a really big tent. Come one, come all. It is barely a pup tent right now.
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
I think what has created a big shift where we have gone through several years now of Republican-controlled redistricting, and where those districts were getting drawn more and more purely Republican, we started seeing that the more extreme factions of the Republican Party in the primaries were winning.
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
You can blame it on whatever you want, but at this point, we have national elections playing out in Texas, where no one is paying attention to what’s happening at the school board or their city council or even the Texas Legislature half the time. It’s all about the White House, and it’s all about what’s happening nationally and who can best go to their side. And if you look at John Cornyn, he’s the guy who can sometimes bring a friend over from the left. Voters don’t want that.
Times Opinion
In other races we’ve covered, alignment with Trump has either been a point of praise or of disqualification. Is that a factor here?
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
It’s not now because there’s such a race to embrace Trump by all the candidates. So there’s no distinction. One of Cornyn’s main talking points is simply that he voted with Trump more than 90 percent of the time.
James Henson Government professor in Austin
It’s so clear that that’s what’s going on. And when you look at the approval, the favorability ratings of Republican leaders, Trump is just always at the top of the heap.
Trump is the third rail of Republican politics here, right? You don’t want to touch it. You want it to propel you.
Times Opinion
There is a Democratic primary happening as well. Wendy, tell us who’s going to win.
Wendy Davis Former state senator from Fort Worth
I wish I knew. I’d put money on it and become rich, but I don’t know. Honestly, it’s truly anybody’s guess right now. Between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, I really don’t know. And I do think a lot of it is going to depend, because Democrats have to think so much more about electability. Some people think that Jasmine is more electable because they believe that churning up the base is going to help us win in a general election.
There are some people who think that’s kind of fantasy thinking and that we’ve really got to bring over some folks who are moderate Republicans and independents, who think things have just gotten too extreme on the Republican side. And that if that’s the case, James is going to be the better person.
Leah Hagan Consultant in Houston
Crockett and Talarico’s styles of campaigning are completely different. You’ve got Jasmine Crockett, who does want to take the gloves off and hit it right in the face. Feels like you have to go that way with the rhetoric that’s out here nowadays.
And then you’ve got James Talarico, who is kind of that old-school politician. He’s well rounded and he’s very well spoken, soft-spoken. They want the same things, but their styles of campaigning are completely different.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
Ultimately, I think the Republican is going to win.
But I think that Republicans are going to come together and ask voters: Do you want open borders? Do you want woke? Do you want all this? Remember what we talked about during the Biden years? They represent that. Is that what you want?
Chad Hasty Radio talk-show host in Lubbock
The Democrats want a fighter. The Republicans want a fighter.
Kel Seliger Former state senator from Amarillo
We don’t disagree, but the Democrats at some point are going to have to think about, besides who’s the fighter, who’s going to actually win a race?
About our panel The 11 panelists assessed the candidates independently, not on behalf of their organizations.
Suzanne Bellsnyder writes the Texas Rural Reporter newsletter and is the editor and publisher of two newspapers in rural Texas. She also runs a public affairs firm and previously worked for Republicans in Austin. She lives in the Panhandle.
Christian Collins runs Texas Youth Summit, a nonprofit group that hosts an annual conference promoting conservative activism and civic leadership programs for students and young professionals. He is also a political consultant and ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2022. He lives in Montgomery County, near Houston.
Wendy Davis represented parts of Tarrant County in the State Senate from 2009 to 2015, where she supported consumer protections and reproductive rights. She was the Democratic nominee for governor of Texas in 2014. She consults for Democratic candidates and causes in the state. Ms. Davis supported and donated to Colin Allred’s run for Senate, which he ended in December.
Morgan Cisneros Eakin served as chair of the Cameron County Republican Party in the Rio Grande Valley from 2015 to 2024 and represented the area on the Texas State Republican Executive Committee. During her tenure, she focused on voter turnout and education.
Leah Hagan consults and strategizes for Republicans, focusing on community engagement, local leadership development and state politics. She lives in Sugar Land.
Chad Hasty hosts “The Chad Hasty Show,” a radio talk show, which is syndicated throughout Texas on Townsquare Media stations. A native of Grand Prairie, Mr. Hasty is a lifelong Texan and lives in Lubbock.
James Henson teaches government at the University of Texas at Austin, where he directs the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project, providing research on public opinion and policy. He served on the City of Austin Ethics Review Commission from 2009 to 2012.
Ross Hunt runs a Republican political data and consulting firm in Dallas that does survey research and modeling in state and federal elections. He has polled for state races across the country and in Texas.
Artemio Muniz is the chairman of the Texas Federation of Hispanic Republicans, which supports Hispanic Republican candidates. He is a lawyer and a strategist who focuses on immigration policy and voter engagement. He lives in Houston.
Kel Seliger represented a West Texas district covering parts of the Panhandle, South Plains and the Permian Basin in the State Senate from 2004 to 2023. As a legislator, he supported public education, including issues such as funding and career training. He also served as mayor of Amarillo for four terms.
Brendan Steinhauser runs a political consulting firm in Austin. He was the campaign manager for Senator John Cornyn’s re-election campaign in 2014. He also directs the Alliance for Secure AI, a group that advocates education on artificial intelligence. He is a native of Flatonia, Texas.
