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We’ll know Wednesday morning if a particular election in Tennessee is really a referendum on nation music, pedal taverns and bachelorettes.
Or, if we are able to divine a deeper political that means from the outcomes of the particular election in Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District.
Democrat Aftyn Behn is making an attempt to tip the scales in favor of her get together in a district which President Trump carried by about 20 factors and former Rep. Mark Inexperienced, R-Tenn., received by an analogous share final fall.
Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It’s a Republican district. However political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weak spot by President Trump, a softness within the Trump coalition, points with the Republican model or early indications of a potential blue wave within the 2026 midterms.
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Relying on who you ask, the race for Tennessee’s seventh congressional district – between Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, former state Division of Normal Providers, and Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state consultant – could also be headed for a photograph end. (George Walker IV/AP Photograph)
It was Behn who proclaimed that she abhorred Nashville a number of years in the past. “I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate nation music. I hate all of the issues that make Nashville apparently an ‘it metropolis,’” complained Behn.
About all Behn disregarded in her animus towards Music Metropolis was dissing The Grand Ole Opry, sizzling hen and Goo Goo Clusters. But when voters go goo goo over Behn Tuesday, Republicans face a cluster of one other type. A Behn victory could sign main issues for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterms.
Behn is characterised because the “AOC of Tennessee,” a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have been certain to boomerang that towards Behn, suggesting she’s not in tune with the district, leans too far to the left and is nearer to the liberal values of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans imagine Behn is only a unhealthy match for Nashville. Sort of like having Unhealthy Bunny carry out on the Ryman Auditorium.
“It shouldn’t even be shut. However it’s,” mused Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., on Fox.
So Republicans are pouring in cash to guard the seat. Democrats are pouring in cash to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off the upset, the get together ought to uproot the goalposts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and dump it within the Cumberland River. Sort of what Vanderbilt followers did final 12 months when the Commodores upset quantity one-ranked Alabama.
Let’s discover what a Behn win would possibly imply for Republicans. It might point out that voters are tiring of President Trump. Or that the GOP model is poisonous. Or maybe it’s the continuation of a development which Democrats loved this fall: close to blowout wins by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger.
However there’s a draw back for Democrats. Sure. They might flip the seat. However a win might also present that the get together is tilting extra to the left. It will be onerous to argue with success if Behn prevails, no matter her progressive streak. However this may increasingly give different liberals concepts that they will win in different crimson or purple districts. Which will work towards Democrats – particularly since each Republican, besides President Trump – has highlighted the left-wing politics of New York Metropolis Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
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Democrats in all probability must run extra centrist candidates in purple areas to regain management of the Home. A Behn victory might open the floodgates for a number of progressive candidates in aggressive Home districts nationwide. Behn’s message – or that of Ocasio-Cortez or Mamdani – received’t work in most locations the place Democrats should be profitable to grab management of the Home.
However what if Republicans maintain the seat and Van Epps wins?
It in all probability relies upon by how a lot.
Sure, there have been 5 particular elections in 2017 – the primary 12 months President Trump was initially in workplace – which Democrats made aggressive. All had been nearer than they need to have been. However Democrats didn’t win any of them. Nonetheless, astute political observers steered there was unpopularity with the president and the GOP agenda. Democrats received 41 seats and gained management of the Home within the 2018 midterms.
So, even when Van Epps wins, look at the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay it as a result of it was a particular election and the customary citizens simply doesn’t prove for particular elections. Particularly one wedged between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
If Republicans maintain the seat, the GOP will argue this was a repudiation of a leftist like Behn and somebody who was out of step. They may also counsel that it’s a GOP seat and Republicans ought to win anyway. That’s what occurred earlier this 12 months when there was consternation earlier than two Florida particular elections. However Reps. Randy Positive, R-Fla., and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., each received in March.
If Van Epps wins, one should nonetheless take note of the margin. The seat, final held by former Rep. Mark Inexperienced, broke for President Trump by over 20% in 2024. (Nicole Hester / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK through Imagn Photos)
Right here’s one other issue which bears watching: the message the press corps and political observers glean from the election outcomes. In any case, particular elections are at all times particular. It’s pure for analysts and journalists to seek for explicit meanings or signposts in these contests. Such was the case with the off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York Metropolis. Generally these observations are spot-on. Different instances, they imply nothing. If something, there’s a tendency to over-illuminate the outcomes of those contests. They’re moments in time. Sort of like listening to a couple bars of a music. Possibly it tells you numerous in regards to the music. Possibly not.
Home Republicans might effectively freak out if Behn is victorious. There’s a number of grumbling amongst Republicans. Some are annoyed by how their management dealt with the federal government shutdown. And others might observe Mark Inexperienced and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and hit the exits early.
It is a fragile time for Home Republicans. That’s one motive why a flip of this seat might imply a little bit bit extra.
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Nonetheless, it’s uncommon to flip seats in Home particular elections. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., received a particular election in a crimson district in Louisiana in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., resigned. However present Sen. Invoice Cassidy, R-La., then received that seat within the common election and served within the Home earlier than shifting to the Senate.
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. However she misplaced reelection that fall.
Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., received a particular election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned simply months into workplace. Garcia held the seat till Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a 12 months in the past.
Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, received a particular election in Hawaii in 2010 towards two Democrats – former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. However Democrats bought the seat again in 2012.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, received a particular election in 2022 to flip Alaska’s at-large district from crimson to blue following the dying of late Rep. Don Younger, R-Alaska. Younger held the seat for practically 50 years. However Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola final 12 months.
Simply because seats are received in particular election upsets, does not imply they’ve completely fallen to the opposite get together. Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, who unseated his Democratic predecessor, former Rep. Mary Peltola – herself a particular election victor – is a main instance. (AP Photograph/Mark Thiessen, File)
In brief, even when somebody flips a seat, it’s uncommon that they’ve the seat for lengthy. Typically, solely by the following common election.
So a phrase of warning as you consider the election outcomes on Tuesday night time. If Republicans maintain the seat, which may be anticipated. If Democrats flip the seat, some will proclaim it’s the second coming of the Music Metropolis Miracle.
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However frankly, it’s in all probability not.
