In the 12-team College Football Playoff, only 33 teams have a path to the postseason.
Move that to a 24-team model, and suddenly 42 programs are alive. The dream stays alive longer — chaos thrives deeper into November.
Every weekend from here on out is a knockout round, as the committee cuts pretenders from contenders. But in a 24-team CFP, a hot finish could erase a slow start. Win late, and you’re in.
Believe it or not, in that expanded world, Arizona, Wake Forest, and even Hawaii could still crash the bracket alongside Ohio State and Texas A&M.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the query: How would the 24-team CFP look if the event started immediately?
In my evaluation of a 24-team format, 32 Energy 4 packages — together with 9 from the SEC, eight from the Massive 12, eight from the ACC, seven from the Massive Ten — would nonetheless have a path to the postseason. And that’s earlier than factoring in Notre Dame or the Group of 6 contenders.
Heading into Week 12 of the season, groups which have confirmed themselves in convention play nonetheless have simply as a lot alternative to win all of it as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s an enormous win for the game. It creates a extra democratic system for figuring out the most effective workforce, with much less debate and extra certainty.
The scoreboard has extra company.
And followers have the most effective probability within the sport’s historical past to see their workforce play for — and win — a nationwide title.
This is the way it works:
This 24-team format options 18 computerized qualifiers
I’ve set it as much as appear to be what you’ll learn under and stand in to characterize the Faculty Soccer Playoff choice committee.
The highest 4 groups from every of the Energy 4 conferences, based mostly on convention standings, mechanically qualify for the CFP. The 2 highest-ranked Group of 6 groups — not essentially convention champions — additionally obtain computerized bids. The remaining six at-large spots are stuffed on the choice committee’s discretion.
Groups are seeded by the choice committee
Because the personification of the choice committee, I’m inspired to take note of head-to-head matchups, energy of report, teaching, personnel and high quality of out-of-conference play when seeding groups.
Successful a convention championship is a robust indicator for a top-seeded workforce.
Successful a convention title doesn’t mechanically qualify a workforce for a better seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s best energy is the addition of two rounds of residence video games
My high 25, which you’ll learn right here, is the premise on which these seedings are assigned.
The primary two rounds of a 24-team playoff would characteristic two rounds of residence video games. The 4 groups that advance via the opening rounds will play their subsequent recreation at a New 12 months’s Six Bowl in a impartial website semifinal.
Groups seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a house playoff recreation. Groups seeded No. 9 to No. 16 every open the event with a house playoff recreation. Groups seeded No. 17 to No. 24 every should play on the street twice to advance to the impartial website quarterfinals.
I have to summarize this, as a result of it’s the most effective facet of the 24-team CFP: 16 totally different campuses host residence playoff video games.
With that, here’s a have a look at the Week 12 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (9-0)
The Buckeyes lead all FBS groups in factors allowed at 65, which is 53 fewer than the following workforce (San Diego State). For perspective, in 2021, Georgia allowed 59 factors via the primary 9 video games of the season.
2. Indiana (10-0)
The Hoosiers have some extent differential of +191 in convention video games, which is the best of any workforce towards convention opponents within the FBS.
3. Texas A&M (9-0)
The Aggies are the one FBS workforce to permit eight or fewer sacks on offense, whereas additionally recording 30-plus sacks on protection.
4. Alabama (8-1)
If the Crimson Tide defeat Oklahoma this weekend, they may grow to be simply the sixth workforce since 1980 to beat 4 AP top-15 opponents inside their first 10 video games of the season— becoming a member of 2019 LSU, 1997 Michigan, 1988 Miami, 1984 Texas, and 1980 Notre Dame.
5. Oregon (8-1)
The Geese are considered one of simply three FBS groups to common 38-plus factors per recreation and permit fewer than 14 factors per recreation, together with Indiana and Texas Tech.
6. Georgia (8-1)
Since 2017, the Bulldogs are 51-2 at residence and 13-1 vs. AP ranked opponents in that span.
7. Ole Miss (9-1)
The Rebels will likely be favored of their final two video games of the season towards Florida and Mississippi State. In the event that they win each video games, their 11-1 report could be the third-best regular-season report in class historical past— trailing solely a 9-0 report in 1962 and 9-0-1 report in 1960.
8. Texas Tech (9-1), Beforehand Ranked: 9
The Crimson Raiders are 9-1 or higher for simply the second time since 2000 (they began 10-0 in 2008).
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. BYU (8-1), Beforehand Ranked: 8
The loss to Texas Tech doesn’t eradicate the Cougars from CFP competition — one thing which may occur in a 12-team subject. In the event that they win out, they will nonetheless attain the Massive 12 title recreation. In a 24-team playoff, it’s laborious to think about any Energy 4 workforce that makes its convention championship lacking the CFP.
10. Texas (7-2, at-large)
Texas’ showdown with Georgia on Saturday may make or break its season. In a 12-team CFP, a loss would possible finish the Longhorns’ hopes in a crowded race for an computerized bid. However in a 24-team playoff, their closing stretch — at Georgia, vs. Arkansas, and vs. Texas A&M — may all however safe a postseason berth as a substitute of shutting them out.
11. Oklahoma (7-2, at-large)
Oklahoma has an actual shot to do what no SEC workforce has finished this season — knock off Alabama. A win may even put the Sooners forward of Texas, regardless of that head-to-head loss, even when the Longhorns take down Georgia.
Nonetheless, Oklahoma would possibly wind up because the cutoff level for groups lacking the 12-team CFP, even with 9 wins towards a brutal slate. In a 24-team format, although, that type of season would most likely earn the Sooners a house playoff recreation.
12. Notre Dame (7-2, at-large)
The Combating Irish have performed like a workforce anticipating to return to the nationwide title recreation over their final seven contests. However losses to Texas A&M and Miami nonetheless loom massive as Notre Dame faces one other must-win take a look at towards a top quality opponent in Pittsburgh.
13. Vanderbilt (8-2, at-large)
The Commodores’ losses have come towards two top-25 groups, considered one of them undefeated in convention play (Alabama). That continues to be true, however needing time beyond regulation to beat an Auburn squad lacking its head coach and having benched its beginning quarterback for a lot of the season isn’t ultimate. And in comparison with Texas and Oklahoma, Vanderbilt’s remaining schedule isn’t almost as demanding.
In a 12-team format, Vandy would possibly lose out in a résumé contest. However in a proposed 24-team CFP, there’s sufficient room for the Commodores to stumble and nonetheless have a path not solely to make the playoff however probably host a first-round recreation.
14. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Georgia Tech’s 48-36 loss to NC State leaves the ACC vast open and means the one assured path to the CFP is profitable the ACC championship recreation. With 4 groups tied for first place, the league is simply too aggressive to get only one workforce within the playoff — however that’s possible the truth in a 12-team playoff.
15. Michigan (7-2, at-large), Beforehand Ranked: 17
The Wolverines are hanging onto an at-large spot in each a 12- and 24-team playoff image after losses to Oklahoma and USC. However a 10-win season capped by a win over No. 1 Ohio State would most likely be sufficient to get them into both postseason event.
16. Pittsburgh (7-2), Beforehand Ranked: 20
Pitt has an opportunity to earn its finest non-conference win of the season when it faces Notre Dame on Saturday, whereas nonetheless protecting its path to the ACC championship recreation alive with two wins to shut out the yr. A loss for Notre Dame would nearly actually go away the Panthers on the surface trying in underneath the 12-team format. Nevertheless, it’s conceivable that each groups may make the 24-team CFP if this recreation is shut and every wins their remaining video games.
ON THE ROAD
17. Utah (7-2, at-large), Beforehand Ranked: 21
at Pittsburgh
The Utes have losses to the highest two groups within the Massive 12 — Texas Tech and BYU — however may nonetheless climb to the highest of the league if both of these groups drops two of their closing three video games, opening the door for a 10-win Utah workforce to succeed in the convention title recreation.
18. Virginia (8-2), Beforehand Ranked: 15
at Michigan
With quarterback Chandler Morris leaving the sport early after taking successful to the top, the Cavaliers turned a one-dimensional workforce of their loss to Wake Forest. Maybe it was an Icarus second for a program that also has a lot to show earlier than it may be thought of a real nationwide title contender.
19. USC (7-2), Beforehand Ranked: NR
at Georgia Tech
The Trojans picked up a much-needed win over Northwestern on Friday evening. With Iowa and Oregon nonetheless left on the schedule, USC may end as one of many Massive Ten’s high 4 groups.
20. North Texas (8-1), Beforehand Ranked: 23
at Vanderbilt
North Texas’ solely loss is to South Florida — a workforce that has been ranked at one level or one other by each main ballot — and the Imply Inexperienced nonetheless have a transparent pth to the American Convention Championship, with solely UAB, Rice and Temple remaining on the schedule.
21. James Madison (9-1), Beforehand Ranked: NR
at Notre Dame
The Dukes are undefeated in convention play and have scored not less than 35 factors in every of their final three video games.
22. SMU (7-3), Beforehand Ranked: NR
at Oklahoma
The Mustangs’ spectacular upset of Miami put them again within the ACC title race, and so they obtained extra assist with Virginia and Louisville taking up losses over the weekend.
23. Cincinnati (7-2), Beforehand Ranked: 24
at Texas
Cincinnati has a troublesome path to the CFP in a 12-team playoff, with three groups forward of it within the Massive 12 standings. However in a 24-team format, the Bearcats would have a a lot clearer path to a CFP berth — and probably, the nationwide title recreation.
24. Houston (8-2), Beforehand Ranked: NR
at BYU
The Cougars had been helped by BYU’s loss to the Crimson Raiders, and in addition by TCU’s loss to Iowa State over the weekend. There’s little room for error, although, for the rest of the season.
Above is how the CFP would look if it ended immediately, however there will likely be modifications and groups not included within the bracket that also have an opportunity to earn entry into the event.
Groups on the bubble have taken on losses, however not sufficient losses for them to not crawl into the highest quarter of their convention, and, with 10 and even simply 9 wins within the common season, may discover themselves into an computerized qualifier spot.
Each recreation issues. Rivalry video games matter extra.
Nobody in Columbus, Ohio, must be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t received “The Sport” since 2019, and a win for a Michigan workforce that has received eight video games heading into “The Sport” this season may nearly actually imply the Wolverines could be within the CFP.
Texas A&M, which hasn’t received a convention title this century or a nationwide title since 1939, should stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what may very well be a spot within the SEC Championship on the road for the Aggies, and a spot within the CFP for the Longhorns.
Good, Outdated-Usual Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this yr makes it conceivable {that a} loss to the Yellow Jackets may see the Dawgs unnoticed of the CFP for the primary time in three years.
The 24-team CFP takes on the most effective facets of the November rivalry: residence and away video games performed on campuses throughout the nation the place environment, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.
RJ Younger is a nationwide school soccer author and analyst for FOX Sports activities. Observe him @RJ_Young.
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