On July 24, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, the heads of the European Fee and the European Council respectively, will probably be in Beijing for a summit to mark the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union. They may most actually speak about U.S. President Donald Trump and his latest announcement of a 30 % tariff on EU imports.
This go to comes on the heels of the Munich Safety Convention in February, the place Washington and China supplied starkly contrasting messages to Europe. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance denounced Europeans’ penchant for, in his view, “shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting folks out of the political course of.” Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, for his half, gave a speech praising the virtues of multilateralism, open commerce, and the rules-based international order. With out explicitly mentioning Trump or america, his message to Europeans was: Look, we’re in the identical boat and may due to this fact stick collectively.
On July 24, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, the heads of the European Fee and the European Council respectively, will probably be in Beijing for a summit to mark the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union. They may most actually speak about U.S. President Donald Trump and his latest announcement of a 30 % tariff on EU imports.
This go to comes on the heels of the Munich Safety Convention in February, the place Washington and China supplied starkly contrasting messages to Europe. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance denounced Europeans’ penchant for, in his view, “shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting folks out of the political course of.” Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, for his half, gave a speech praising the virtues of multilateralism, open commerce, and the rules-based international order. With out explicitly mentioning Trump or america, his message to Europeans was: Look, we’re in the identical boat and may due to this fact stick collectively.
One would possibly assume Wang’s line would resonate amid European frustrations with Washington. However the actuality is, Trump’s ascent doesn’t imply a lovefest between Europe and China. Von der Leyen and Costa’s mission is to handle battle, to not pitch a shiny new partnership with Beijing. The actual fact that the summit shouldn’t be going down in Brussels and that massive weapons comparable to French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will probably be absent speaks volumes in regards to the myriad issues bedeviling Sino-European ties. From commerce and know-how to Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, the listing is turning into even longer.
Each European and Chinese language leaders desire a practical relationship, as their assembly in Beijing exhibits. However such efforts shouldn’t be taken as proof that Europe is popping to China out of frustration with america.
First, financial relations between the EU and China have change into contentious. European companies used to see China as a promised land as they arrange store there. Within the 2000s, following its entry into the World Commerce Group, China accounted for as much as 40 % of Volkswagen’s international gross sales and a related share of BMW’s. However today the tables have turned. After dropping market share in China, now German carmakers face competitors on their residence turf. Chinese language manufacturers comparable to BYD are establishing a foothold as Europe is poised to shift from inner combustion to electrical automobiles within the 2030s as a part of its effort to decarbonize. Unfair practices comparable to state subsidies give these corporations an edge in opposition to European rivals.
The EU is watching with unease. In a latest speech earlier than the European Parliament, von der Leyen famous that China had “distinctive devices at its disposal to play outdoors the principles,” permitting it “to flood international markets with backed overcapacity—not simply to spice up its personal industries however to choke worldwide competitors.” Again in 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Fee chief known as China a “competitor and a rival” and has been a distinguished advocate of “de-risking” from dependency on the Chinese language economic system.
Now, for all of the diplomatic niceties, the Europe-China rivalry is heating up, with China making worrying inroads on European markets. Final 12 months, the EU slapped hefty tariffs on Chinese language EVs, alleging unfair competitors. BYD continues to be constructing a producing base in Hungary in addition to Turkey—which has unfettered entry to the EU due to the customs union in place. Worse, from Europe’s perspective, China controls the uncooked supplies important for inexperienced know-how, from batteries to photo voltaic panels. European EV builders should still be depending on Chinese language-made batteries, for instance, and Beijing is aware of how one can leverage that. China just lately imposed restrictions on uncommon earths’ export to the EU as a tit-for-tat of excluding Chinese language medical tools from public procurement.
From Europe’s financial perspective, tensions between China and america would possibly truly make issues worse. The concern on the continent is that the products diverted from the U.S. market will probably be dumped on European shoppers. Europe’s commerce deficit with China surpassed 300 billion euros in 2024. Trump’s tariffs coupled with China’s overcapacity will probably be a serious headache for Eurocrats and companies alike. Because of this, the EU is vowing to launch additional probes into Chinese language malfeasance, much like the EV investigation.
China is insisting that the 2020 Complete Settlement on Funding (CAI) with the EU continues to be very a lot on the agenda. However the European Parliament nonetheless refuses to ratify the deal over considerations about human rights. China skepticism has now taken maintain in key EU capitals, too, and the summit won’t make it disappear.
Tensions are rising within the safety realm as effectively. Early in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europeans had a motive to see Chinese language President Xi Jinping as a moderating affect on his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. For example, the Chinese language management was credited with issuing a behind-the-scenes warning to the Kremlin in opposition to using tactical nuclear weapons in early 2023.
However even these modest grounds for optimism are waning as China comes nearer to open help for Putin’s conflict. At a gathering with EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas this month, Wang reportedly mentioned China couldn’t afford to have Russia lose in Ukraine. Xi’s attendance of this 12 months’s Victory Parade at Moscow’s Purple Sq.—alongside EU leaders comparable to Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, one ought to add—is telling, too. Experiences that China is delivering deadly support to Russia have additional infected Europeans’ anxiousness. Chinese language digital elements additionally feed into Russian navy capabilities, comparable to missiles and drones, which may threaten NATO—even when such elements are additionally utilized by Ukraine’s massively profitable unmanned platforms.
Regardless of these tensions, Europe shouldn’t be searching for to decouple from China. China and Europe are conscious that they want one another and wish to be certain that competitors takes place inside sure bounds.
There are indicators that each side are discovering their manner towards such a modus vivendi. In April, Beijing introduced it might elevate restrictions on a number of EU lawmakers, in hopes of resuscitating the CAI. In distinction with the 2024 NATO summit, there was no hawkish language on China within the communiqué from The Hague final month—largely as a result of Trump wished to maintain it quick.
Dialogue can be persevering with at a number of ranges. On July 14, Teresa Ribera, the European Fee’s inexperienced transition chief, accompanied by three of her fellow commissioners, headlined the Sixth EU-China Excessive-Degree Atmosphere and Local weather Dialogue in Beijing. The U.S. exit from the Paris local weather accord underscores the significance for Europe and China, the 2 key stakeholders, to crew up on chopping emissions. And there are nonetheless EU member states, comparable to Spain and Hungary, that view Beijing as a welcome companion and never a menace.
Lastly, alternatives in cutting-edge applied sciences comparable to synthetic intelligence will proceed to present each side causes to work collectively. The launch of DeepSeek has revived investor optimism about China’s economic system, which has been underperforming post-COVID. The European tech sector additionally welcomed the launch. The AI mannequin’s open-source code has allowed different corporations to tailor the know-how to their wants whereas enhancing it and growing new merchandise. This makes it a public good of kinds and highlights China’s centrality within the international economic system. With Europe lagging behind america on AI, DeepSeek could slim the hole at the least a bit.
Europe will proceed to safe advantages like this from its relationship with China. However Europeans now not consider, as they did by the 2010s, that relations with Beijing are win-win. Furthermore, Europe appreciates that trans-Atlantic ties have to date proved resilient, as illustrated by Trump’s U-turn on NATO and more durable line on Putin. If pressured to select a aspect within the U.S.-China competitors, European decision-makers will—unenthusiastically—aspect with Washington.
Within the meantime, they acknowledge that strategic autonomy additionally entails decreasing extreme reliance on Chinese language assets, commerce, funding, and know-how. The tepid tone on the anniversary get together in Beijing will probably be a testomony to that.
