U.S. President Donald Trump’s seeming change of tune on Russia and Ukraine has perplexed his critics, myself included. All through his time in energy, Trump supplied little however reward for Russian President Vladimir Putin, usually defending him within the face of home political furor. In distinction, Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky have drawn solely scorn from Trump, which culminated in an abrupt finish to their assembly on the White Home in February.
That posture appeared to shift final month after a telephone name with Putin that, in Trump’s telling, left him “upset.” Referring to Russia’s continued assault on Ukraine, Trump , “I’m simply saying I don’t suppose [Putin’s] trying to cease, and that’s too dangerous.”
U.S. President Donald Trump’s seeming change of tune on Russia and Ukraine has perplexed his critics, myself included. All through his time in energy, Trump supplied little however reward for Russian President Vladimir Putin, usually defending him within the face of home political furor. In distinction, Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky have drawn solely scorn from Trump, which culminated in an abrupt finish to their assembly on the White Home in February.
That posture appeared to shift final month after a telephone name with Putin that, in Trump’s telling, left him “upset.” Referring to Russia’s continued assault on Ukraine, Trump , “I’m simply saying I don’t suppose [Putin’s] trying to cease, and that’s too dangerous.”
The weeks following that telephone name had the sensation of a liberal internationalist fever dream. The White Home reversed the Protection Division’s choice to halt weapons transfers to Ukraine. Trump, sitting beside the NATO secretary-general within the Oval Workplace, pledged to ship weapons value billions of {dollars} to Ukraine. He even vowed to impose sweeping tariffs and sanctions on Russia except it ended the warfare—a requirement that he first framed as a 50-day ultimatum however then shortened to lower than two weeks.
For as soon as, it appeared, the White Home was placing stress on Moscow relatively than Kyiv. Many people might need been tempted to imagine Trump was lastly—and firmly—standing on the facet of sovereignty, independence, and democracy. In actuality, nonetheless, he was in all probability performing extra out of political crucial than newfound precept. When Putin’s unrelenting assault on Ukraine continued even after Trump’s ultimatum, it made him seem feckless and mocked his pledge to finish the battle on his first day in workplace.
Relatively than bow to an American ultimatum, Putin has as a substitute engineered a entice, one during which Trump will stroll into later this week. For Putin, the Alaska summit—which notably will exclude Zelensky, virtually definitely at Russia’s insistence—is tailored to allow Russia to proceed evading sanctions and tariffs, whereas additionally ending Trump’s extra sympathetic strategy to Ukraine as soon as and for all.
Putin laid the groundwork for his maneuver in a three-hour in Moscow with Trump’s particular envoy Steve Witkoff. The Russian chief put a suggestion on the desk, the small print of which could have escaped Witkoff. But it surely was sufficient for each side to justify a summit between the 2 leaders, which was introduced inside hours of the assembly.
Putin absolutely—and rightly—calculates that Trump is predisposed to be on his facet. An hourslong dialogue, throughout which Putin can reinforce Trump’s misreading of the warfare’s origins, is more likely to go away Trump extra impervious than ever to the Ukrainian and European declare that Russia, and Russia alone, is liable for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Virtually as if to preview what we are able to anticipate later this week, Trump once more advised on Monday—falsely—that Ukraine selected to start out the warfare.
Putin is, by all accounts, ready to place a land-for-peace deal on the desk. Whatever the specifics, it’s more likely to enchantment to Trump’s actual property mogul sensibilities. In spite of everything, Trump has by no means appreciated the normative elements of Russia’s aggression. To the extent he has faulted Putin for the warfare, he has described it when it comes to a land seize relatively than an effort to extinguish Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and nationwide identification. Putin virtually definitely causes that Trump will be predisposed to suppose that land, and land alone, can finish the warfare—giving quick shrift to Ukrainian and European convictions that long-term safety ensures are mandatory to make sure any peace is sturdy.
In the identical vein, Trump’s worldview leaves him sympathetic to Putin’s argument that in the present day’s strains of management ought to type the place to begin for negotiations—not the prewar map from 2022 and even from 2014, when Putin first invaded Crimea and components of japanese Ukraine. Trump has by no means put a lot inventory within the tenets of the rules-based order that emerged from the ashes of World Warfare II, together with the notion which may doesn’t make proper and that greater international locations can’t be allowed to bully their smaller neighbors. As he famously reminded Zelensky throughout their assembly on the White Home earlier this yr: “You don’t have the playing cards.”
As if to place a finer level on it, Trump’s ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, lately mentioned of Ukrainian land: “No huge chunks or sections are going to be simply provided that haven’t been fought for or earned on the battlefield.” That final astoundingly anachronistic phrase—“earned on the battlefield”—reinforces the priority {that a} summit will discover Trump working from the precept that possession is nine-tenths of the legislation. The start line for any territorial talks can be on Putin’s phrases.
Lastly, Putin virtually definitely calculates that the summit is an opportune second to flip the script, portraying the Kremlin because the smart get together engaged in a constructive course of whereas Ukraine, in his telling, stands in the way in which of peace. It didn’t take lengthy for that cynical wager to repay—shortly after information of the summit emerged, Zelensky mentioned, “Ukrainians won’t give their land to the occupier.” It was the type of assertion that, whereas principled and morally sound, led Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance earlier this yr to accuse Zelensky of standing in the way in which of peace.
Zelensky later adopted a extra politically astute strategy, working intently along with his European counterparts to formulate a counterproposal relatively than a flat-out rejection. Nonetheless, the truth that Trump is reverting to Kremlin speaking factors to debate the warfare’s origins means that Putin’s effort to reframe the phrases of the diplomatic course of could have already got had some success with Trump.
To his credit score, Trump has professed to have an open thoughts heading into the summit, calling it a “feel-out assembly.” The problem, nonetheless, is that the assembly itself will present Putin with a structural benefit, simply as he devised it to do. Putin’s engagement in face-to-face diplomacy and his presentation of a concrete supply, whereas one-sided and unjust, might effectively be sufficient for Trump. In Trump’s thoughts, and that of his followers, it can justify reverting again to his default state—praising Putin and pressuring Kyiv.
Certainly, the Kremlin has already purchased a respite from looming sanctions and tariffs. Putin, nonetheless, has greater ambitions in thoughts: He virtually definitely hopes that the summit can carry Trump again to his facet as soon as and for all.
The arc of historical past could also be lengthy, however for Trump, it bends towards accommodating Moscow.
