Analyst Jiang Xueqin, known online as Professor Jiang and dubbed “China’s Nostradamus,” warns that the ongoing US-Iran conflict will persist indefinitely, severely disrupting global food security and endangering six billion lives. He shared this outlook during a recent two-hour discussion on The Diary of a CEO podcast hosted by Steven Bartlett. His YouTube channel, Predictive History, has amassed over 2.5 million subscribers in less than a year, with prior accurate forecasts including Donald Trump’s 2024 election win and the Iran invasion.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Sparks Fertilizer Crisis
The core issue lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital 33-kilometer waterway that Iran has sealed since the conflict escalated. This passage carries a substantial share of global fertilizer shipments, which have halted as insurers decline coverage for transiting vessels.
“The world depends on fertilizer,” Jiang emphasized, drawing from economist Steve Keen’s prior podcast appearance. “Without fertilizers, the world could only sustain at most two billion people.”
This shortfall would leave six billion people without stable food access. “What are the six billion people going to do? Just starve to death? No. They’re going to migrate,” Jiang stated. “And this is going to create a huge global crisis throughout the world.”
Data Backs Warnings of Widespread Hunger
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization notes that one-third of internationally traded fertilizers pass through the strait, with shortages projected to impact harvests through 2027. The World Food Programme estimates 45 million more people will face acute hunger as a result.
Research from Our World in Data highlights the critical role of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, produced via the Haber-Bosch process, which support food needs for nearly half the global population. Removing them could deprive 3.5 to four billion individuals of their main food sources.
Steve Keen, honorary professor at University College London and forecaster of the 2008 financial crisis, cautioned that India might deplete its fertilizer reserves in two to three months. “Food production on the planet could fall 10 to 25 percent and there simply won’t be enough food for everyone on the planet,” Keen said. “Then it’s a question of who’s going to starve.”
Gulf nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE face a stark irony: they export massive fertilizer volumes yet import 80 to 90 percent of their food.
Prolonged Conflict Serves US Interests, Signals Draft Preparations
Jiang views the food and energy disruptions not as side effects but as strategic gains for the US, driving demand for American energy exports and bolstering the dollar’s global role. “This war in Iran benefits America tremendously. So why not have it go on for a long, long time?” he questioned.
Sustaining such a war demands extensive ground forces, prompting draft measures. A bipartisan provision in the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, effective December 18, 2025, mandates automatic enrollment of men aged 18 to 26 into the Selective Service pool by December 2026. Congress would require a separate vote to implement a full draft.
“In order to make sure this war goes on for a long time, you need ground troops. And you need a lot of ground troops. And that’s why you need a national draft,” Jiang explained.
