A decade in the past, Russia gave the impression to be having its second within the Center East. However from at this time’s perspective, that second seems distinctly momentary. To the shock of many, Moscow didn’t step in to stop the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been cautious to seem impartial within the punch-up between Israel and Iran, providing his companies as a peacemaker moderately than concrete assist for Tehran.
Putin’s alternative to take action is pushed by weak point. When the chips are down, Russia has neither the desire nor the capability to intervene in Center Japanese energy politics. But the choice to steer clear additionally displays Moscow’s conflicting motives. Russia’s pursuits require it to navigate a fancy set of relationships with regional gamers, together with Iran’s adversaries and rivals.
A decade in the past, Russia gave the impression to be having its second within the Center East. However from at this time’s perspective, that second seems distinctly momentary. To the shock of many, Moscow didn’t step in to stop the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been cautious to seem impartial within the punch-up between Israel and Iran, providing his companies as a peacemaker moderately than concrete assist for Tehran.
Putin’s alternative to take action is pushed by weak point. When the chips are down, Russia has neither the desire nor the capability to intervene in Center Japanese energy politics. But the choice to steer clear additionally displays Moscow’s conflicting motives. Russia’s pursuits require it to navigate a fancy set of relationships with regional gamers, together with Iran’s adversaries and rivals.
After invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia dramatically improved its relations with Iran. The motive was pragmatic, and Moscow wanted Tehran way more than the opposite approach round. Iranians provided Russia with the Shahed drones and associated know-how that it used to pummel Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Iran additionally shared examined ideas for evading Western sanctions, enabling Moscow’s “ghost fleet” of oil tankers to study from Iran’s expertise. The 2 nations additionally began beefing up rail and port infrastructure with a purpose to strengthen a north-south commerce route by Eurasia.
Russia additionally secured different oblique advantages from its relationship with Tehran. Iran’s assist for Hamas and Hezbollah paved the way in which to the Oct. 7, 2023, assaults in opposition to Israel and the following regional battle. Surging violence within the Center East diverted worldwide consideration away from Ukraine, created unhealthy blood between the West and huge elements of the worldwide south, and injected stress into america’ home politics forward of a crucial presidential election. What’s extra, instability within the Center East often drives up oil costs, which is all the time excellent news for the Russian Federation’s price range.
However Russia has additionally repaid Iran’s assist. Within the instant aftermath of Oct. 7, Russia’s response leaned additional towards the anti-Israel coalition than it might need in any other case. A Hamas delegation arrived in Moscow later in October, ostensibly to barter the discharge of hostages holding Russian citizenship. In January 2024, a Houthi delegation met with Russia’s Deputy Overseas Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. And U.S. intelligence has indicated that Russia’s navy intelligence company, the GRU, was reportedly serving to the Yemeni militia assault Western ships transiting the Crimson Sea.
Extra to the purpose, Putin expressed assist for Iran because it got here below direct hearth from Israel. He reached out to Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to induce restraint following the Israeli strike that killed Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in August 2024. And in contrast to at this time, he didn’t name Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, whereas Israel was making an attempt to seem impartial within the Russia-Ukraine warfare, Moscow signed a safety partnership with Tehran in January 2025.
But Russia’s response to the newest spherical of Iran-Israel combating reveals that its friendship with Tehran has by no means been of the “no limits” selection. To start out with, paperwork affirming the 2 nations’ ties are nonetheless ridden with obscure, aspirational phrases. Within the 5 months since signing a safety partnership with Tehran, Russia didn’t ship any significant navy help, akin to air protection missile methods to make use of in opposition to Israeli jets. The superior Su-35 fighters that Tehran bought in 2023 haven’t been transferred but, leaving Iran to depend on U.S. planes bought within the Seventies.
Moscow’s stance displays a deeper ambivalence towards Iran. Certain, Putin has condemned the Israeli strikes and accused america of “bringing the world to a really harmful level” with its personal assaults. And the prospect of a regime change in Tehran is actually troubling for the Kremlin, given its die-hard rejection of interventionist crusades. However then once more, a nuclear Iran isn’t in Russia’s curiosity both, as demonstrated by Moscow’s assist for U.N. Safety Council sanctions in opposition to Iran in 2010. Tehran’s utility as an ally is receding as effectively. In spite of everything, Shaheds are actually manufactured in Russia, full with key upgrades akin to jet engines and Starlink-enabled navigation elements.
Russia’s resolution to primarily sit out the Israel-Iran warfare could seem stunning in mild of its latest ties with Iran, however it matches with Moscow’s historic habits within the area. Ever because it intervened in Syria in 2015, Russian forces and their anti-aircraft missiles have stood by whereas Israel hit Hezbollah and different Iranian proxy property. A Russian aircraft did get shot over Latakia throughout an Israeli raid in September 2018—however that was an accident attributable to Assad’s air defenses. Moscow’s coverage was to leverage its newly acquired place in Syria with a purpose to have interaction Iran’s rivals, together with Turkey; Saudi Arabia; and in addition, to a lesser diploma, Israel.
The Kremlin definitely rolled the cube when it selected to deploy troops to Syria. However subsequently, in making an attempt to money in diplomatically, it crafted a comparatively balanced method. Moscow sought to circumvent native rivalries by speaking to all regional stakeholders: Iran and Israel, Assad and the Syrian opposition, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Kurdistan Staff’ Occasion (PKK), to call a simply few. Now, after its wartime pivot towards Iran, Russia is looking for to revive this equilibrium.
If Moscow is ambivalent towards Tehran, then Russia’s management and society at giant have a love-hate relationship with Israel. The propaganda emanating from Moscow usually paints Israel as an extension of the U.S. hegemony. What’s extra, antisemitism has deep roots in historical past and society throughout Japanese Europe, and definitely in Russia.
However these attitudes coexist with a deep Israel-philia—typically hid however usually very a lot specific. Many Russians admire Israel’s muscular international coverage and penchant to deploy navy power to create faits accomplis in defiance of worldwide rebuke. Russian ultranationalists on Telegram reward Israel’s navy prowess and argue that, had it not been for the nation’s corrupt elite, Russia might have confirmed the identical energy. Lastly, the presence of a big Russian diaspora in Israel creates a robust bond between the 2 nations.
Just lately, Putin declared that “nearly 2 million individuals from the previous Soviet Union and the Russian Federation dwell in Israel. As we speak, it’s nearly a Russian-speaking nation.” The rhetoric could also be extravagant, however the sentiment is actual.
Russia’s course in the end displays its personal restricted clout within the Center East. As a lot because it envies Washington, Moscow is in no place change america as a linchpin of the regional order. Nor will it ever have as a lot pores and skin within the recreation as native states. Russia’s precedence stays subjugating Ukraine and sustaining primacy within the post-Soviet house. This leaves it each opportunistic and considerably danger averse within the Center East.
Because of this, Russia will proceed to do enterprise with all regional gamers, Israel included. The Iranian management is aware of this all too effectively.
