A recent poll indicates strong national support for keeping Alberta and Quebec within Canada amid discussions of separation referendums in both provinces. Nationwide, 79 percent of respondents favor retaining Alberta in Confederation, while 71 percent support the same for Quebec.
Regional Variations in Support
Support levels vary across regions. Ontarians show the strongest backing, with 84 percent voting to keep Alberta and 76 percent for Quebec. Residents in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada also express high support at 83 percent for Alberta and 73 percent for Quebec.
Saskatchewan records the lowest figures, where only 62 percent want to retain neighboring Alberta and 51 percent support Quebec remaining. Within the provinces themselves, 58 percent of Albertans favor keeping Quebec in Canada, and 72 percent of Quebecers want Alberta to stay.
Economic Concerns Over Separation
Canadians anticipate negative economic fallout from either province’s departure. Regarding Alberta’s potential exit, 41 percent predict more negative than positive impacts, and 40 percent foresee overwhelmingly negative effects. For Quebec, 42 percent expect more negatives, with 20 percent viewing it as overwhelmingly harmful.
Just 8 percent in each scenario believe the national economy would experience overwhelmingly positive outcomes.
Perceptions of U.S. Influence
Respondents express significant worry about U.S. intervention in a separated province. For Alberta, 45 percent expect definite political pressure, 44 percent anticipate economic pressure, and 27 percent foresee military involvement. Quebec faces lower but notable expectations: 25 percent for political, 27 percent for economic, and 18 percent for military pressure.
Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute, describes the findings as “a tale of two separation narratives.” She notes that Alberta’s discussion centers on its economic contributions and perceived grievances, while Quebec’s revolves around culture, language, and identity.
Even locally, optimism wanes. In Alberta, only 36 percent see net positive economic effects from independence (17 percent overwhelmingly positive, 19 percent more positive). Quebec figures are lower at 24 percent (6 percent overwhelmingly positive, 18 percent more positive).
Kurl highlights U.S. dynamics as a deterrent, especially amid recent political developments. She observes that while some Albertans view closer U.S. ties favorably, the prospect dampens separatist momentum in Quebec due to fears of economic and cultural vulnerability in an English-dominant North America.
Poll Methodology
The survey, conducted February 2-6, involved 3,010 Canadian adults selected randomly. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, 19 times out of 20.
