2025 was a yr of geopolitical tumult, and one individual appeared on the heart of all of it: U.S. President Donald Trump. From tariffs and the commerce conflict to trying to play peacemaker in a number of world conflicts, Trump was ubiquitous within the headlines and within the minds of international leaders making an attempt to determine the way to navigate a really totally different White Home.
On the most recent episode of FP Stay, I appeared again on the yr that was with Peter Baker, the New York Occasions’s chief White Home correspondent. Subscribers can watch the complete dialogue on the video field atop this web page or obtain the FP Stay podcast. What follows here’s a evenly edited and condensed transcript.
Ravi Agrawal: You’ve lined six U.S. presidents, together with Trump in his first time period. However nearly one yr in, this second time period actually feels totally different. As somebody who covers the White Home day by day, how a lot of an outlier has 2025 been?
Peter Baker: Trump 2.0 is Trump 1.0 in some methods however on steroids. A whole lot of the issues that he talked about doing or exploring within the first time period—or tried however didn’t do or was dissuaded from doing—he’s now doing and in spades. One of many issues he realized was that it issues who’s round you. Lots of the individuals he surrounded himself with in his first time period considered their jobs as protecting him from going off the rails, from doing issues they thought have been reckless—or unlawful even. This time period, he’s surrounded by individuals who not solely agree with him however are egging him on, enabling him, and empowering him and wish to serve his needs. So all of the issues that they toy with, he’s now pushing ahead—and with nice depth.
RA: In coverage phrases, which three or 4 challenge areas have emerged as the important thing differentiators between Trump 1.0 and a couple of.0?
PB: The Nationwide Safety Technique drafted by former U.S. Nationwide Safety Advisor H.R. McMaster in Trump’s first time period was a comparatively standard articulation of a great-power world by which we have been in competitors with Russia and China.
This Nationwide Safety Technique, which simply got here out a number of weeks in the past, is radically totally different and but rather more in tune with how Trump thinks, which is that Russia and China are our friends or associates and Europe is the true unhealthy man and that civilizational erasure in Europe is the true problem, not Russian aggression or Chinese language financial hegemony.
RA: The unusual factor there, Peter, is that again when Trump first turned president in 2017, there was a way that Trump was recalibrating U.S. coverage towards China. He noticed Obama as an excessive amount of of a dove on China and wished to appropriate that. It appears as if, after a number of years of hawkishness in D.C. towards China, Trump in 2025 is showing rather more dovish than many people anticipated.
PB: I’d agree with you. If you happen to had me put collectively an inventory of the highest 5 issues that stunned me this yr about Trump’s return to workplace, that’s considered one of them. I assumed he would come again a bit extra weapons blazing at China as a result of it’s been a helpful goal for him in a variety of methods. And in some methods, he helped forge that bipartisan recalibration in Washington, the notion that we’re not going to make China one other United States by integrating them into the world financial neighborhood. That didn’t turn into a profitable technique by way of moderating their conduct and democratizing their nation, and Trump led the way in which, and lots of people on either side of the aisle didn’t agree with all the things he stated or did or how he did it however agreed together with his concept of the case.
Coming again this time period and seeming to put off China has been stunning. Clearly, they’re nonetheless preventing about tariffs. There may be nonetheless some stress within the relationship. However he simply undid a number of the controls that former President Joe Biden put in place on expertise, which stunned individuals, and he has not been utilizing China because the goal of his outrage in the identical approach he did within the first time period.
RA: What else has stunned you masking the White Home this yr?
PB: Frankly, nearly none of it must be a shock. A whole lot of issues which were stunning are nonetheless not stunning. Trump’s reprisals and retribution towards his enemies, his hostility towards NATO and European allies, his prolific use of tariffs, his “on the market” persona—all these are issues we shouldn’t be stunned by.
Folks have been stunned—and I used to be somewhat stunned, I suppose—by how intense and excessive it was at occasions and the way profitable it has been in a variety of methods. He’s carried out extra to perform the issues he wished to do than many individuals imagined he would be capable to: demolishing the U.S. Company for Worldwide Improvement, slicing off NPR and PBS, eliminating Voice of America and Radio Liberty. Conservatives have talked about doing these items for years and by no means actually did. Trump is available in and decides, let’s not trouble with Congress. Let’s simply snap our fingers, signal a number of paperwork, and inform individuals to get out of their places of work. And it was profitable. Lots of people don’t like the thought of it and definitely criticize the substance of it, however as a matter of accomplishment, he’s proved that he can do issues that individuals thought a president couldn’t do.
RA: Round about this time final yr, Ukrainians weren’t notably downbeat about Trump coming to workplace, partly as a result of they’d gotten a bit bored with Biden. They felt as if Biden was giving them sufficient to simply about survive however not win the conflict. They felt that Trump 1.0 gave them javelins and that Trump 2.0 could be extra decisive of their course.
One of many key moments that outlined 2025 was in February, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got here to the White Home and acquired into an argument with Trump on dwell tv. What was it like masking that, and the way a lot of an outlier was it?
PB: It was a rare day. I used to be within the White Home briefing room when it occurred. We didn’t see it dwell as a result of they pretaped it, so when the pool reporters got here again to the briefing room, their heads have been exploding. They have been whispering to us, wait until you see what simply occurred as a result of it was so extraordinary.
Once more, in some methods all the things is stunning and never stunning with Trump. We knew that his fixation with Ukraine went again to his first time period. It acquired him impeached in some methods as a result of he had this concept that Ukraine was towards him. And he purchased into the Russian concept that Ukraine’s probably not a rustic. He even instructed Petro Poroshenko, who was Zelensky’s predecessor as president of Ukraine, as soon as that his nation’s probably not a rustic, which is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s line. We additionally knew that Zelensky has an edgy persona and that Biden and his individuals have been additionally at occasions irritated by Zelensky for not being grateful sufficient. However they didn’t do it in public, and so they definitely didn’t have the open disparagement and badgering and berating that we noticed within the Oval Workplace that day. I’ve by no means seen something like that with a president and a visiting international chief, and I’ve been doing this since 1996.
RA: Proper after that assembly, I wrote an article about how we have been witnessing a actuality TV presidency.
Choosing up on two different TV moments of world leaders coming to the White Home—one is British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who performed it very well by flattering Trump with a letter from the king inviting him to one more state go to to the U.Ok., saying he could be the first-ever individual to return to 2 state visits. Trump was visibly happy. One other chief, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, thought he would be capable to recreation Trump. Reportedly, forward of the assembly, he talked up how he had studied Trump and would be capable to cope with him as somebody who had handled all types of conditions in South Africa and within the area. However he was shocked by Trump, who performed a video alleging that there’s a white genocide in South Africa, and that actually upended that relationship. So leaders have a combined document in making an attempt to determine the way to cope with Trump.
PB: You’re completely proper. If you happen to put collectively a mixtape of all these international chief visits, you must embody the scene of Ramaphosa saying, hey, I didn’t carry you a aircraft, and Trump saying, nicely, I’d have taken it—referring to how Qatar gave him a aircraft price $200 million to $400 million. I don’t know if that beats an invite by King Charles to a state dinner, nevertheless it definitely is taking part in that recreation.
Within the first time period, there was a little bit of one-upmanship with this. The Japanese created a “President’s Cup” that he might preside over and ship when he came visiting, South Korea took him to the Demilitarized Zone, and French President Emmanuel Macron took him to the Bastille Day army parade. Every world chief tried to assume what they might do for Trump that might enchantment to his showman intuition, his ego, his vainness. That’s additionally one thing that I hear ambassadors right here in Washington discuss to one another about, buying and selling concepts and ideas.
RA: You’ve lined so many presidents. How salient has international coverage been on this presidency thus far, vis-à-vis different presidencies, and why?
PB: It’s been somewhat bit greater than individuals anticipated on this first yr of his second time period. For an America First man, he appears to be centered lots on what’s occurring abroad and fixing wars, even when that’s distorted in a variety of methods—he’s undoubtedly centered on getting the Nobel [Peace] Prize. You’d even have to incorporate, on my listing of 5 most stunning issues, his territorial ambitions, although he hasn’t actually adopted by on them, by way of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal—even suggesting that America would take over Gaza, which I can’t think about any American president desirous to have accountability for. His focus abroad has been somewhat stunning for individuals. Even his chief of workers, Susie Wiles, in a now well-known set of interviews with Vainness Truthful, stated she needs him speaking extra about affordability and fewer about Saudi Arabia.
However a variety of second-term presidents, possibly not fairly this early, get lured into the foreign-policy space as a result of it feels extra historic. These are world affairs. This makes you a large when you’re striding throughout the worldwide stage, making peace, and coping with different international leaders. You even have rather more latitude than within the home entrance. There’s a restrict to how a lot you are able to do with out Congress collaborating. Frankly, Trump hasn’t used Congress a lot in any respect this yr to attain home coverage—all of his home coverage has been by government orders. So international coverage is of course interesting for a second-term president, and he appears to have gotten there quicker than a variety of them.
RA: If you happen to needed to provide you with an animating precept for this presidency and what it means for the world, what would that be? Is it a way that Trump actually cares about his legacy? Is it that we’re getting into an period of plutocracy or perhaps a kleptocracy? Is it a race for vital minerals, Western hemispheric dominance, the Monroe Doctrine—what animates Trump?
PB: There’s no query that economics is correct there on the high of the listing, each for the nation and for his personal private household. Definitely, when he talks about Ukraine, he talks about it by way of uncommon minerals and restoring financial relations with Russia. The concept that by by some means restoring financial relations, Russia goes to be transformative or significant to the US financial system is laughable. Anyone who’s spending time in Russia is aware of we didn’t have a lot of an financial relationship with them even when issues have been good.
There’s additionally the profiteering off of the White Home. We’ve by no means seen something fairly prefer it. His household is operating around the globe, making tens of millions of, billions of {dollars} by crypto and offers with the Saudis, the Qataris, and so forth. They pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founding father of Binance, who had been charged with crimes right here in the US. He occurs to be in enterprise with the agency that the president’s household and associates are concerned with. That’s one thing we’ve simply by no means seen earlier than.
However when you’re on the lookout for a bigger overarching doctrine—a Trump doctrine, if you’ll—he doesn’t assume in these phrases precisely. He’s not an mental. However he appears to have a Nineteenth-century Congress of Vienna view of the world: Massive gamers and massive powers resolve huge points, and all people else is secondary. In his view, that’s the US, Russia, and China. It appears as if he believes within the spheres of influences, within the sense that China will be all of the issues it needs to be in Asia; Russia may very well be what it needs to be in Europe, at the least Japanese Europe; and the US will likely be in control of the Western Hemisphere. His strategy to Venezuela suggests a extra aggressive and assertive American dominance than he performs in different components of the world that he doesn’t appear to care an excessive amount of about. With out making an attempt to learn his thoughts, it does really feel as if we’re on this new great-power second.
RA: You lined Putin’s rise in Moscow once you have been a international correspondent there. Listening to you describe Trump’s view of the world, and carving it up the way in which nice powers did and possibly will do, how do you assume somebody like Putin watches that from afar, and what’s his takeaway?
PB: This fits Putin as a result of, in impact, Trump is saying that Russia issues and Ukraine doesn’t. Russia’s a significant energy; Ukraine just isn’t vital. It’s their neighbor—allow them to do what they need there.
Michael Hirsh wrote a chunk for International Coverage saying, in impact, Putin has already gained. Putin appears at Trump and sees a man that he can do enterprise with as a result of Trump isn’t going to offer him grief about democracy, human rights, or asserting himself in Japanese Europe. Trump is risky and unpredictable, which isn’t one thing Putin essentially likes, however I believe Putin feels as if time is on his facet.
RA: You have been additionally based mostly in Jerusalem, and the U.S.-Israel relationship has been one other huge story this yr. What’s Trump’s stance on the Israel-Gaza battle net-net? He stated so many outrageous issues about Gaza, such because the Riviera plan you talked about, however he additionally was instrumental in pushing by the hostage-prisoner alternate and the peace deal, and getting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar’s prime minister for the assault on Sept. 9. All of this comes amid an actual shift in American attitudes towards Israel and Palestine. As somebody who’s masking the White Home everyday, what’s your sense of what Trump means to the U.S.-Israel relationship?
PB: It’s very difficult, clearly. In Trump’s first time period, he introduced himself as Israel’s finest buddy ever. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem, acknowledged Israel’s management over Golan Heights, closed down the Palestinian workplace in Washington, minimize off help to the Palestinians, and mainly produced, by [son-in-law] Jared Kushner, a peace plan that didn’t go wherever however was definitely tilted in Israel’s favor. The Abraham Accords on the very finish moved Israel nearer towards a extra regular diplomatic relationship with its neighbors.
Within the second time period, it’s not fairly as easy. I believe he acquired bored with Netanyahu by the top of his first time period and was actually indignant at Netanyahu when he congratulated Joe Biden after he was elected. That was a no-no in Trump’s ebook. He has been prepared, on this first yr of his second time period, to place strain on Netanyahu often to do issues that Netanyahu may not wish to do or may not have had the flexibleness to do together with his right-wing coalition with out Trump’s strain. The query is how far Trump is prepared to take it. He did dealer that Gaza cease-fire. He stated on nationwide tv that he’s brokered peace for the primary time in 3,000 years within the Center East. Clearly, this isn’t true and overstates the which means of the cease-fire, however the cease-fire was vital after two years of terrible warfare and acquired the final of the hostages out.
The query is the place he takes it from right here. Is there a “Nixon in China” state of affairs by which Trump, who does have credibility with the pro-Israeli neighborhood, can push ahead a extra sustainable peace plan that may truly get the Palestinian-Israeli battle nearer to decision, if not all the way in which there? I don’t know if he needs to or not, and his personal workers is pulling it again somewhat bit—Susie Wiles within the Vainness Truthful interview stated that she thinks he doesn’t perceive that his personal individuals, which means MAGA, aren’t actually joyful once they see him standing subsequent to Netanyahu. In order that’s a brand new stress that didn’t exist within the first time period.
