On Aug. 5, 2024, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, going through large protests in opposition to her authorities, fled the capital of Dhaka for India, the place she stays in exile. She faces severe prices in Bangladesh, together with crimes in opposition to humanity, corruption, and contempt of courtroom. The nation’s interim authorities has sought her extradition and revoked her passport; India, which thought of Hasina an ally, has not responded to Bangladesh’s request.
College students and activists marched within the streets all through the summer season of 2024—initially opposing the Excessive Court docket reinstatement of quotas for presidency jobs for the descendants of Bangladeshi freedom fighters, which have been successfully state patronage for kids of supporters of the Awami League, Hasina’s celebration. In a rustic with excessive youth unemployment, college students resented that.
However Hasina did not learn the temper of the nation. She ridiculed the protesters, calling them razakars, a pejorative time period for many who collaborated with the Pakistani armed forces throughout Bangladesh’s independence battle in 1971. The protests in opposition to Hasina grew, and the police and paramilitary used disproportionate drive in opposition to demonstrators; a whole lot of individuals died, and there have been large human rights violations.
The political transition in Hasina’s wake has been chaotic. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, an 85-year-old economist identified for pioneering microcredit (and likewise condemned by Hasina), took over because the chief advisor of the interim authorities. He assembled a coalition of civil society activists, technocrats, directors, and politicians to control the nation. There was some optimism within the nation as a result of folks had actual hope for political change.
For many years, political energy in Bangladesh has oscillated between two dynasties: that of Hasina, whose Awami League led the nation from 1996 to 2001 and once more from 2009 till final 12 months, and her father, independence chief Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who ruled from 1972 to 1975 (that 12 months he was assassinated in workplace as president); and that of the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP), whose chief Khaleda Zia was prime minister from 1991 to 1996 and once more from 2001 to 2006 and earlier than that, her husband, Ziaur Rahman, as president from 1977 to 1981, when he too was assassinated in workplace. Bangladeshis have lengthy yearned for a so-called minus-two answer: a authorities with out both the Awami League or the BNP on the helm.
Since Yunus took workplace a 12 months in the past, the temper in Bangladesh has soured. Human rights abuses proceed, and a few of his political opponents are in jail. Fundamentalist Islamism has resurfaced as a risk to liberal democracy and ladies’s rights, financial development has faltered, and U.S. tariffs threaten the nation’s garment exports. The interim authorities has delayed elections, which can now happen between February and April 2026. With the Awami League banned and doubtless unable to compete in elections, it can possible be a lopsided contest.
To make sure, Bangladesh has suffered years of misrule. Hasina had an extended stint as prime minister, however solely her 2009 electoral victory was free and truthful. Widespread allegations of vote rigging plagued the authorities within the three elections that adopted, two of which have been boycotted by the principal opposition events. Corruption hollowed out establishments, and unemployment rose.
Bangladesh’s politics are exceptionally divisive. The nation is dominated by two events that detest one another and are unable to perform in a bipartisan method. After a decade and a half of Awami League rule, many opposition politicians need revenge. Certainly, Bangladeshi prosecutors have filed crimes in opposition to humanity prices in opposition to Hasina over final summer season’s violence in a particular tribunal. Hasina has no plans to return to the nation to face prices, and India isn’t about handy her over; if the trial proceeds, it is going to be in absentia and thus lack legitimacy.
When Hasina was ousted, there was a palpable sigh of reduction in Bangladesh. Human rights defenders thought that they might have the ability to function extra freely, that an inquiry fee would discover solutions about—and launch—folks detained for years with out trial and that the households of many individuals who had been disappeared would get some closure. Yunus had assist from civil society, and it appeared that the rule of regulation would prevail and Bangladesh’s unrestrained paramilitary forces could be held accountable—and safety sector reforms could be initiated.
Although some folks expressed worry that Islamist fundamentalists would assault non secular minorities in Hasina’s absence (she had drawn assist from Hindus and others), there was additionally hope that Yunus would take care of fundamentalism firmly. Many individuals additionally anticipated the interim authorities to crack down on corruption and attempt to deliver again a number of the wealth siphoned away from banks by influential politicians and businesspeople.
However the final 12 months has been disappointing on a number of fronts, and the aspiration that the democratic clock would reset stays simply that. Although undoing the mess of 15 years of Hasina’s rule will take time, the Yunus administration has proceeded at a torpid tempo. Studies to revitalize the paperwork lie unattended. Democratic reforms have been sluggish, and activists worry that non secular fundamentalists will impose their will to roll again ladies’s rights if the once-outlawed Islamist celebration Jamaat-e-Islami considerably will increase its seats within the parliament and turns into influential within the new elected authorities.
Ladies’s empowerment has been an achievement of successive Bangladeshi governments, and the nation abounds with organizations which have championed ladies’s rights. Feminine literacy is on the rise, and girls’s labor drive participation price has elevated in contrast with neighboring India. However these beneficial properties are in danger as fundamentalist events equivalent to Jamaat-e-Islami and organizations equivalent to Hefazat-e-Islam flex their muscle mass. Members of Hefazat-e-Islam and different Islamists have already been protesting suggestions by a state physique to present equal inheritance rights to ladies.
Jamaat-e-Islami has by no means gained greater than 13 % of the favored vote in Bangladeshi elections, however it’s turning into extra common, holding giant public rallies. In the meantime, members of Hefazat-e-Islam have marched within the streets calling for Islamic legal guidelines. These teams flaunt their bigotry and demand on gender norms which might be at odds with Bangladeshi society.
Such political challenges are greatest addressed head-on by leaders with a political mandate. The officers within the interim authorities could imply properly, however they lack legitimacy. They’ve additionally needed to depend on regulation enforcement officers who’re seen with suspicion due to the violent suppression of scholars and protesters final 12 months. Yunus’s primary job was to steer the nation towards elections, however as a result of progress has been sluggish, anti-democratic forces are regrouping.
Within the prevailing inertia, the BNP and the fundamentalist actions have begun to say themselves. The BNP has allied with Jamaat-e-Islami prior to now. Ought to the Awami League not have the ability to subject candidates, it’s unclear whether or not that alliance will maintain. The Nationwide Citizen Social gathering, fashioned by the coed activists who rose in opposition to Hasina, may additionally be a drive to reckon with. Elections are too distant to know for certain.
Within the meantime, score-settling is taking up. A number of intellectuals, legal professionals, and activists—lots of whom are Awami League supporters and a few of whom had campaigned for stern punishment of Islamist fundamentalists and others who had collaborated with Pakistani forces within the 1971 battle—at the moment are in jail. Some now face outrageous prices, together with aiding genocide.
Whereas the civil society leaders who’ve spoken out for human rights prior to now however who stayed silent throughout the federal government’s violent response to the coed protests must be held accountable, jailing them underneath repressive legal guidelines undermines the interim authorities’s declare to show a brand new leaf from Bangladesh’s tradition of revenge-driven politics. The federal government appears powerless to cease the witch hunt and has contributed to it by detaining many individuals underneath grave prices. They embody an actor and businesswoman, journalists, a number one politician, a filmmaker and human rights campaigner, lecturers, and senior editors.
Most of those folks have been arrested on homicide or tried homicide prices over instances of political violence, based mostly on scant proof drawn from “first info experiences” or complaints filed by these injured throughout violent acts through the protests or in its aftermath or their kin. A few of these arrested are seen as beneficiaries of Awami rule. Prosecutors have argued in opposition to granting the detainees bail, and the courts have complied. Such arbitrary arrests have been the hallmark of Awami League rule; they’re now showing in one other kind.
It’s extensively accepted that regulation enforcement authorities killed no less than 800 folks throughout final 12 months’s protests, and it’s fairly doable that some officers affiliated with the Awami League have been concerned. However there’s little credible proof to counsel that every one the people now in jail are implicated within the violence. Their solely crime appears to be that they supported Hasina’s celebration.
The regression in human rights in Bangladesh is without doubt one of the cruelest ironies of the post-Hasina period. Throughout her rule, the notorious Fast Motion Battalion and different safety companies have been chargeable for a whole lot of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary detentions. The brand new authorities pledged to reform these establishments and maintain perpetrators accountable.
As Mahfuz Anam, the editor of the Every day Star, requested not too long ago: “We repeat, we now have efficiently destroyed Hasina’s power-monopolising and freedom-stifling regime. However what have we changed it with?”
The tragedy of Bangladesh’s present state of affairs is that the political divide is Manichaean. Individuals are sympathetic solely to their very own trigger. So, Awami League supporters are appalled that statues of Mujib, Hasina’s father, have been toppled and his dwelling burned however have little to say in regards to the a whole lot of people that have been killed final 12 months. The Awami League’s opponents solely communicate of these deaths and are unwilling to acknowledge the grievous hurt completed to Bangladesh’s historical past, in searching for to erase Mujib or his legacy.
Bangladesh wants to maneuver past its retributive cycle; yesterday’s victims should not turn out to be immediately’s perpetrators. Justice, not revenge, needs to be the tenet.
Nothing would please Yunus greater than to shift the main focus to much less contentious points, equivalent to economics. Inspired by the soundness he speaks about, multilateral lending companies have resumed loans to Bangladesh. Inflation has fallen prior to now 12 months from almost 12 % to under 9 %. However U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20 % tariffs, that are set to enter impact on Aug. 7, will harm Bangladesh’s garment exports, a couple of fifth of which go to the USA.
Worsening relations with India additionally current an issue for commerce. Throughout Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh loved a heat relationship with India. The longtime chief’s fall offered a quandary for New Delhi, which shortly raised issues with Dhaka about threats to Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Some revenge-seeking teams attacked Hindu property within the days after Hasina fled, and the assaults had as a lot to do with faith because the notion that Hindus had largely backed the Awami League. Regardless, that’s no justification for persecuting a minority. The moderates who hoped to foster a pluralistic and secular Bangladesh now discover themselves on the defensive. Yunus has reached out to China and Pakistan for friendship, which neither India nor the USA will view kindly.
The hardest job for Yunus is to get Bangladesh’s political events to conform to floor guidelines and an election timeline. Political events are multiplying, and the myopic ban on the Awami League might find yourself turning the previous ruling celebration right into a martyr. There may be nonetheless a reservoir of assist for the Awami League, even whether it is much less seen, and stopping the celebration from contesting elections might hand Bangladesh on a platter to deprave or fundamentalist forces. Voters ought to determine how a lot the Awami League needs to be punished. Encouraging youthful supporters of the celebration who could want to make a clear break with the Hasina years to be politically energetic could be the appropriate step for the Yunus administration, however it’s not doable if the celebration is deregistered and stays banned.
The long run needn’t be bleak. Bangladesh’s primary advantage is that the nation operates despite its authorities and never due to it on account of its vibrant civil society. Its resourceful folks know survive and thrive. The street forward for Bangladesh is filled with challenges. The hopes that have been kindled final July could have dimmed, however they haven’t been extinguished. The dream of a democratic renaissance would require greater than the autumn of an autocrat; it can demand a sustained dedication to rebuilding establishments, defending rights of all, and fostering inclusive politics.
Till then, Bangladesh stays a nation in ready—hovering between the shadows of its previous and the delicate promise of a greater future.
