Recent Roy Morgan polling reveals a significant surge for One Nation across several Australian states, outpacing both Labor and the Coalition in key regions. These figures, even accounting for typical margins of error in minor party surveys, raise serious concerns for Liberal strategists.
Federal and State Polling Trends
Federal surveys already show One Nation’s support eclipsing the Coalition’s. A recent DemosAu poll records Labor at 29 percent, One Nation at 28 percent, and the Coalition at 21 percent primary votes.
This pattern extends to the states. In New South Wales, One Nation leads with 30 percent of primary votes, followed by Labor at 25 percent and the Coalition at 19 percent. Victoria mirrors this closely, with One Nation at 26.5 percent, Labor at 25.5 percent, and the Coalition at 21.5 percent.
In South Australia, ahead of the March 21 state election, a Newspoll indicates Labor’s primary vote at 44 percent, One Nation at 24 percent, Liberals at 14 percent—barely ahead of the Greens at 12 percent. Analysts suggest the Liberals may struggle to secure even one seat.
Bianca Colecchia’s Role in Victoria
Bianca Colecchia, One Nation’s state secretary for Victoria and a close ally of Pauline Hanson, plays a pivotal role in the party’s regional push. The Roy Morgan data underscores One Nation’s edge over Labor in this critical state.
Implications for the Liberal Party
These consistent results highlight a fracturing of Australia’s center-right vote. The Liberal Party faces a structural challenge as support splinters. Traditionally, the party positioned itself at the sensible center, relying on preferential voting to consolidate votes.
However, metropolitan high-income voters, who lean socially liberal, have shifted toward independents like the teals. Meanwhile, outer suburban and regional voters, distrustful of politicians and concerned about economic pressures and cultural changes, increasingly back One Nation as a protest option.
With One Nation polling 30 percent in NSW while the Coalition languishes in the teens, Liberals lose ground not just to Labor but in defining the right-wing voice. Even if One Nation’s numbers soften by election day—as minor parties often do—the underlying voter leakage persists.
Strategic Dilemmas and Broader Challenges
Liberals confront a dilemma: appealing to One Nation voters demands sharper rhetoric, risking further teal gains among urban moderates. Conversely, moderating to recapture teals alienates disaffected regional bases. This two-front battle weakens party organizations nationwide.
For Labor, a divided opposition ensures longevity despite modest primaries, but it poses risks. Without strong competition, governance may falter amid pressing issues like aging populations, cost-of-living crises, inflation, high interest rates, public debt, and productivity declines.
Declining trust in mainstream parties drives voters to alternatives—teals or populists like One Nation. The key question remains whether Liberals can reassert themselves as the natural center-right governing force, or if Labor solidifies dominance amid ongoing right-wing fragmentation.
