Our annual survey of journey sentiment holds just a few surprises in 2026.
When 2025 started, airways have been warning of a drop in bookings — particularly at the back of the aircraft. That led to profitability considerations or schedule reductions from main U.S. carriers. However in the long run, 2025 turned out to be a fairly good 12 months for airways and the journey business as a complete, regardless of a steep drop in worldwide guests to the U.S.
The variety of passengers that flew in 2025 (over 906 million) barely eclipsed 2024 totals, in accordance with Transportation Safety Administration information.
And through the remaining months of 2025, the spike in journey was extra notable: About 1.9% extra passengers handed by TSA checkpoints between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1 (the fourth quarter) than in 2024. That included an all-time file of three million-plus flyers on Nov. 30, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
Thus far this 12 months, the outlook has remained pretty optimistic. We have seen airways including attention-grabbing, new routes, and two of the highest U.S. carriers have predicted a surge in income this 12 months.
Equally, latest polling commissioned by TPG from YouGov reveals little decline in journey sentiment. In actual fact, many Individuals plan to journey extra this 12 months, in accordance with our findings.
There are some regarding tendencies within the information, too: The quantity of people that will journey much less and spend much less on that journey is ticking up 12 months over 12 months.
We even have some fascinating, new polling on elite standing to share with you — however let’s begin with journey sentiment.
Most Individuals are planning to journey the identical or greater than final 12 months
The brand new YouGov survey discovered that simply over half of Individuals (56%) plan to journey extra or the identical quantity in 2026 than they did up to now two years.
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Almost all (94%) of these planning to journey in 2026 (i.e., “vacationers”) intend to journey domestically, whereas 36% plan to journey internationally.
In actual fact, a couple of quarter of Individuals (24%) say they plan to journey extra in 2026 than they did up to now two years, whereas 32% plan to journey about the identical.
But it surely’s not all excellent news relating to traveler sentiment.
Fewer individuals report they are going to journey this 12 months than final, and extra report they are going to spend much less on journey this 12 months.
13% of Individuals say they are going to journey lower than they did up to now few years, whereas 19% of vacationers say they are going to spend much less on journey this 12 months.
That is up a number of proportion factors since our final journey sentiment survey again in Might 2025. Keep in mind that in Might of final 12 months, many shoppers have been very anxious concerning the state of the economic system. So, it is a bit regarding that fewer individuals are reporting they are going to journey now — undoubtedly one thing to look at because the 12 months rolls on.
The significance of elite standing
TPG and YouGov additionally received a pulse on elite standing, as many people at TPG debate the query, “Is elite standing price it anymore?”
In an period of fewer upgrades, longer improve lists, fewer perks, costlier mileage redemptions and common devaluations, it is a query we’re all grappling with. It additionally comes as airline standing has gotten more durable and costlier to earn.
We requested whether or not vacationers at present have elite standing with any airline (e.g., AAdvantage Gold within the American Airways AAdvantage program, Silver Medallion within the Delta SkyMiles program, Premium Silver within the United MileagePlus program, and so forth.). A whopping 73% of vacationers reported having no airline elite standing, whereas solely 9% have some sort of elite standing. I am keen to guess, although, that if we polled solely TPG readers, these numbers can be fairly totally different.
We additionally requested, “Enthusiastic about airline elite standing advantages, how, if in any respect, do you suppose they’ve modified up to now two years?”
Of these surveyed, 31% of flyers with elite standing stated elite standing advantages have improved, whereas 59% stated they’ve stayed the identical or gotten worse. That is not what I anticipated, as the advantages of elite standing proceed to be watered down (fewer upgrades are given, mileage redemptions are costlier and so forth).
We additionally particularly requested concerning the worth of factors and miles over time, which aligned higher with expectations. Solely 8% of all flyers stated the worth had elevated up to now few years; 25% stated the worth stayed the identical, and 18% stated it had dropped.
That is a warning signal for airways and banks that depend upon shoppers to maintain shopping for into the worth proposition of incomes factors and miles.
There’s some excellent news for 2026. The key airways have left their present incomes standing thresholds intact after elevating necessities over the previous a number of years. Delta Air Strains raised its Delta Medallion standing necessities by steep margins just a few years in the past, and United Airways raised its incomes necessities simply final 12 months.
Solely time will inform if this stays the case as we get additional into 2026.
Backside line
It is a captivating time in journey, with few indicators of letup in demand. Our new TPG and YouGov polling finds that the majority Individuals plan to journey as a lot or much more than they did up to now few years. Nonetheless, there are some warnings within the information, and you’ll guess we’ll be watching fastidiously for any indicators of a journey slowdown — and what that would imply for you as a traveler.
Associated studying:
The Factors Man commissioned YouGov Plc to conduct the survey. All figures, until in any other case acknowledged, are from YouGov Plc. The full pattern dimension was 2,503 U.S. adults, amongst whom 1,728 plan to journey in 2026. Fieldwork was undertaken between Jan. 9 and 13. The survey was carried out on-line and meets rigorous high quality requirements. It gathered a nonprobability-based pattern and employed demographic quotas and weights to raised align the survey pattern with the broader U.S. inhabitants.
