On July 16, Israel dramatically escalated its navy intervention in Syria. Throughout internecine combating between Druze, Bedouins, and Syrian authorities forces in Sweida province, Israel threw its lot in with the Druze and launched greater than 160 airstrikes in simply 24 hours. It then leveled a number of authorities buildings within the Syrian capital of Damascus. Israeli Protection Minister Israel Katz shared a video of the assault on X and mentioned, “The heavy blows have began,” which means that there could be extra to return.
To justify the choice to pursue battle over cooperation in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that Israel had no selection however to behave and “save our Druze brothers” from a bloodbath. His declare has—understandably—been met with skepticism. Greater than 600,000 individuals died throughout Syria’s civil battle, and that determine probably consists of a whole bunch if not 1000’s of Druze. However Israel’s interventions throughout the battle had been nowhere near the size of its latest assaults.
On July 16, Israel dramatically escalated its navy intervention in Syria. Throughout internecine combating between Druze, Bedouins, and Syrian authorities forces in Sweida province, Israel threw its lot in with the Druze and launched greater than 160 airstrikes in simply 24 hours. It then leveled a number of authorities buildings within the Syrian capital of Damascus. Israeli Protection Minister Israel Katz shared a video of the assault on X and mentioned, “The heavy blows have began,” which means that there could be extra to return.
To justify the choice to pursue battle over cooperation in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that Israel had no selection however to behave and “save our Druze brothers” from a bloodbath. His declare has—understandably—been met with skepticism. Greater than 600,000 individuals died throughout Syria’s civil battle, and that determine probably consists of a whole bunch if not 1000’s of Druze. However Israel’s interventions throughout the battle had been nowhere near the size of its latest assaults.
A greater method to perceive Israel’s actions is to have a look at the nation’s shift from being a status-quo energy to a revisionist one. Regardless of dealing with hostile actors at a number of borders—Hezbollah within the north and Hamas within the south—Israeli policymakers typically noticed their strategic scenario as tolerable and sought incremental enhancements throughout the current geopolitical dispensation. Netanyahu did his finest to maintain Hamas quiet, forestall a two-state resolution, and pursue peace offers with regional autocrats.
Earlier than Hamas’s assaults on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel additionally noticed Syria’s civil battle as an inner affair. It solely intervened when Iran sought to make use of the chaos in Syria to produce superior weapons to Hezbollah or entrench itself on Israel’s borders. In Syria, Gaza, and elsewhere, Netanyahu instructed the Israel Protection Forces to “mow the grass” and chop any revisionist threats all the way down to measurement, fairly than pursue regime change.
This was as a result of the Israeli authorities felt that the native and regional established order finest served the nation’s pursuits. It allowed Israel to seal its border with Gaza whereas additionally jettisoning any duty for the territory’s residents. Within the West Financial institution, Israel additionally contracted out civilian governance to another person—the Palestinian Authority—whereas entrenching its long-term occupation. Additional afield, Israel normalized relations with different status-quo powers, together with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain. It was ostensibly near doing so with Saudi Arabia in late 2023.
Israelis have lengthy referred to as Netanyahu “the magician” for his political longevity, however he deserves this moniker extra for having squared the unimaginable circle for thus lengthy. Underneath his rule, it appeared like Israel may hold the West Financial institution and in addition really feel safer militarily and more and more built-in regionally.
However Hamas’s assaults modified all that. In response, Netanyahu deserted the established order. He has as an alternative pursued “complete victory” towards Hamas in Gaza and repeatedly scuppered a cease-fire within the territory. Additional nonetheless, Israel escalated its assaults towards Hezbollah and Iran, crippling each. In brief, Netanyahu has reinvented Israel as a revisionist actor that’s remaking the area by means of navy pressure.
In latest months, there was a debate over whether or not Israel is now a hegemon within the Center East. However that dialogue misunderstands Israel’s new grand technique. Israel doesn’t aspire to be the type of hegemon that U.S. policymakers usually consider—consolidating and strengthening a strategically advantageous steadiness of energy. Fairly, Israel is now utilizing navy pressure to destabilize your complete Center East to be able to remake and reorder the area.
Which means as an alternative of “mowing the grass” to comprise its rivals, Israel is now using its qualitative navy edge to pursue “complete victory” over them. Beforehand, an indefinite multifront battle was Israel’s worst nightmare. But after Oct. 7, Israel has extended a “without end battle” on every of its borders and past.
To the extent that Israel has an finish purpose in thoughts, it’s now a way more formidable and transformative one. Netanyahu might have obfuscated his “day after” imaginative and prescient for Gaza, however he has articulated his imaginative and prescient for a “new Center East.” He believes that crippling the so-called Axis of Resistance will allow peace to emerge out of the ashes of the previous order. He has claimed that “reasonable” Arab states shall be free to normalize relations with Israel as soon as they now not concern spoilers like Iran.
The purpose right here remains to be for Israel to have its cake and eat it, too: indefinitely controlling and even annexing components of Gaza and the West Financial institution whereas additionally making peace with its neighbors. However the imaginative and prescient of how one can get there has modified. Now, Netanyahu’s supposed path to peace is thru intensified regional chaos.
However latest occasions in Syria illustrate why this imaginative and prescient is unrealistic. As quickly as Syria’s Assad regime fell final December, Israel carried out an unprecedented variety of strikes towards Syrian navy tools and former regime installations, whereas its floor forces occupied round 77 sq. miles of Syrian territory. Consequently, Syria’s overseas backers—notably Turkey and the Gulf states—participated in a number of backchannels to decrease the stress. That advanced into direct Israel-Syria talks involving key Netanyahu allies, resembling Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s Nationwide Safety Council, and Ron Dermer, Israel’s strategic affairs minister.
This diplomatic progress dovetailed with Israel’s strikes on Iran and a subsequent cease-fire. As Netanyahu flew to Washington, observers speculated that he and Trump would use the latest confrontation as an impetus to finish the lethal cycle of battle plaguing the area. Netanyahu appeared poised to maneuver from the primary stage of Israel’s new grand technique, battle and chaos, to the second—normalization. Syria and probably Lebanon had been to be the primary candidates.
Nevertheless it was not meant to be. The much-heralded Trump-Netanyahu assembly ended with out settlement. Shortly afterward, as instability enveloped Syria’s Sweida province, Israel launched strikes killing extra Syrian safety forces than ever earlier than and humiliating the brand new Syrian authorities with its assaults on the capital.
Opposite to Netanyahu’s hopes, these are precisely the form of actions which can be making normalization much less probably. They’ve intensified anger amongst Arab populations—which had been already hostile to normalization—which means that Arab leaders are actually extra constrained in what they’ll supply. What’s extra, there’s now a rising strategic divergence with pro-western Arab states, which stay status-quo powers that need regional wars to finish. For Arab leaders, normalization is now the next danger, with much less strategic dividends.
The Trump administration, in flip, has repeatedly demonstrated that it basically misunderstands Israel’s grand strategic shift. Annoyed U.S. officers lately referred to as Netanyahu a “madman” who “bombs the whole lot on a regular basis.” However there’s a technique to his insanity. Netanyahu has turned one of many best tragedies in Israeli historical past—Hamas’s Oct. 7 assaults—right into a transformative occasion that allowed Israel to pursue regional hegemony by means of a revisionist grand technique.
That is additionally why the Trump administration is failing in its makes an attempt to finish the battle in Gaza, set up a modus vivendi between Israel and Turkey, and make peace between Israel and Syria. Grand strategic change is tough and uncommon. It took one thing as stunning and sudden as Hamas’s Oct. 7 assaults to finish Israel’s attachment to the established order. Trump wanted to offer one thing equally dramatic. No matter he provided Netanyahu was not engaging sufficient to drag Israel away from revisionism. Israel stays unwilling to transform its tactical victories over Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas into long-term political successes.
Worse nonetheless, the temptations to deploy pressure in new and seemingly transformational methods are multiplying. Israeli ministers have brazenly referred to as for completely destroying Gaza and ravenous the territory’s residents. Throughout the clashes in Sweida, one minister advocated that Israel “get rid of” Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Most preposterously, Israel Hayom, a newspaper usually labeled as Netanyahu’s “mouthpiece,” lately revealed an op-ed calling on Israel to “liberate” Northern Cyprus from Turkish management.
If Israel retains happening this path, Netanyahu’s “new Center East” will probably proceed to look loads just like the previous one: no cease-fire in Gaza and no normalization with Arab neighbors. Israel’s revisionist grand technique will proceed to alienate regional states that concern the unfold of chaos, pushing long-term success even additional out of attain. Trump himself has railed towards a U.S. grand technique that depends on “without end wars” to reorder areas and societies by means of navy pressure. Trump’s failure to constrain Netanyahu signifies that it’s precisely this type of utopian adventurism that he’s now enabling.
