Though there are hanging similarities between the geopolitics of the Indian subcontinent and the Korean Peninsula, the worldwide relations neighborhood hardly ever pays consideration to their parallel trajectories. Latest occasions present a helpful start line for a comparability: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s troubled dealings with U.S. President Donald Trump distinction sharply with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s smoother dealing with of the White Home’s actual and imagined peace diplomacy throughout his go to to Washington final month. Modi’s difficulties and Lee’s successes additionally supply insights into the prospects for Trump’s peace initiatives in Asia.
Within the Forties, the subcontinent and the Korean Peninsula have been each partitioned—beneath very completely different circumstances however with equally lasting penalties. These divisions created two of the world’s most intractable conflicts: between India and Pakistan and between North and South Korea. The proliferation of nuclear weapons in each areas by the Nineteen Nineties elevated them into main safety considerations for Washington and the world.
Though there are hanging similarities between the geopolitics of the Indian subcontinent and the Korean Peninsula, the worldwide relations neighborhood hardly ever pays consideration to their parallel trajectories. Latest occasions present a helpful start line for a comparability: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s troubled dealings with U.S. President Donald Trump distinction sharply with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s smoother dealing with of the White Home’s actual and imagined peace diplomacy throughout his go to to Washington final month. Modi’s difficulties and Lee’s successes additionally supply insights into the prospects for Trump’s peace initiatives in Asia.
Within the Forties, the subcontinent and the Korean Peninsula have been each partitioned—beneath very completely different circumstances however with equally lasting penalties. These divisions created two of the world’s most intractable conflicts: between India and Pakistan and between North and South Korea. The proliferation of nuclear weapons in each areas by the Nineteen Nineties elevated them into main safety considerations for Washington and the world.
Whereas america performed a direct function in Korea’s division and has been deeply engaged within the peninsula’s safety ever since, its function in South Asia was inherited from Britain and has at all times been much less direct, if enduring. The rigidity of the Korean order was codified in Washington’s alliance with Seoul. In South Asia, against this, america stored ties with each India and Pakistan.
India’s nonalignment restricted navy cooperation with Washington, whereas Pakistan joined the U.S.-led alliances in the course of the Chilly Struggle and later turned a serious non-NATO ally. For the reason that finish of the Chilly Struggle, because the Soviet risk light and China’s rise gathered tempo, america has expanded its strategic partnership with India whereas retaining counterterrorism hyperlinks with Pakistan.
But entrenched battle remained the frequent thread. Regardless of frequent U.S. initiatives in South Asia and periodic efforts within the Koreas, the rivalries between India and Pakistan and people between North and South Korea have endured.
Trump’s self-image as a peacemaker has to date fared poorly in each theaters. Modi publicly dismissed Trump’s declare that it was he who brokered the cease-fire that ended the four-day battle between India and Pakistan this Could. New Delhi acknowledged calls from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance in the course of the battle, however it insisted that hostilities ended solely after a direct request from a prime Pakistani common to his Indian counterpart on Could 10. Modi bolstered this line by telling Trump in June that India would by no means settle for third-party mediation—a place later underlined by Overseas Secretary Vikram Misri.
In doing so, Modi publicly contradicted Trump’s claims and, in impact, known as out the president’s declare as unfaithful. Many observers imagine that Modi’s unwillingness to play together with Trump on his imagined peacemaker function offended the White Home.
In a cellphone name in mid-June, Modi apparently didn’t reply to Trump’s suggestion that India might nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. This, in flip, set the stage for the unraveling of the particular relationship that was so evident between the 2 leaders throughout Trump’s first time period—and for the reversal of a few years of tightening India-U.S. relations.
After that, Trump not solely repeated advert nauseam his declare to have stopped the battle between India and Pakistan but in addition embarked in a punitive mission in opposition to India. Many observers see Modi’s failure to play his anticipated function on this charade because the supply of Trump’s more durable line on New Delhi, together with his rejection of commerce offers that had already been negotiated on the bureaucratic stage and the imposition of a 25 p.c tariff on Indian items exports.
This was adopted by a further 25 p.c punitive levy, ostensibly on the grounds of India’s purchases of Russian oil—a wierd justification, contemplating that Trump has but to place any new stress on Russia or place an identical tariff on China, the largest importer of Russian oil. The notion that Washington was singling out India due to Trump’s peacemaking fixation has been bolstered by the intensified White Home assaults on New Delhi generally and Modi specifically.
That Modi had accomplished greater than every other Indian chief to construct nearer ties with Washington appeared to hold little weight with the White Home. Trump’s commerce advisor Peter Navarro launched a very ugly marketing campaign in opposition to India; in a publish on X criticizing Modi’s insurance policies, Navarro tagged an image of Modi meditating in saffron robes. Modi’s private rapport with Trump in the course of the latter’s first time period, in addition to a quarter-century of bipartisan funding within the U.S.-India partnership, have been brushed apart in a match of presidential pique.
In distinction, Lee flattered Trump’s peace ambitions. His effusive reward helped him easy over difficulties on commerce and reassure Washington that, regardless of his progressive politics, he was not hostile to america. Lee framed himself as a “pacemaker” for Trump’s peacemaking, underlining the U.S. president’s potential function in reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula. Some argue that Modi might have used related flattery, or at the very least a well-timed cellphone name, to assuage Trump.
However that’s unlikely. South Korea has lengthy trusted america for safety and market entry. Its nationwide self-image is that of a “shrimp amongst whales”—requiring agility and suppleness for survival. India, against this, sees itself as an elephant and faces no existential risk. Its prickly nationalism, sharpened beneath Modi, makes it politically not possible to undertake Lee’s overtly pandering ways.
For these and different causes, India reacts badly to stress ways. This was evident on the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Tianjin, China, this week, the place Modi showcased his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his reengagement with Chinese language President Xi Jinping.
That doesn’t imply that the Modi-Trump relationship can not get better. One can think about a grand cut price wherein each leaders discover a technique to reset ties. This might embrace a decision of the ostensible dispute on Russian oil, a recent effort to reach at a commerce deal, and even a framework for peace in South Asia.
Trump’s method to peacemaking departs from the standard frameworks of human rights or self-determination. For him, peace is about enterprise. He imagines mega-resorts in Gaza, mineral exploitation in Ukraine and Arctic Russia, and leasing land alongside a “Trump hall” within the South Caucasus.
On this gentle, his concept of creating oil and fuel deposits in Pakistan and promoting these sources to India is an attention-grabbing one, and New Delhi shouldn’t dismiss it outright. To make sure, there may be a lot skepticism concerning the scope of Pakistan’s hydrocarbon reserves, though latest claims about huge offshore deposits have generated some new pleasure.
Of curiosity right here is just not a lot the query of Pakistan’s oil reserves however the concept of economic cooperation between the South Asian rivals. May Trump reach overcoming entrenched Pakistani resistance to financial cooperation with India? America has tried to advertise vitality cooperation between Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India previously. However these concepts by no means received very far because of opposition in Pakistan.
For his half, Modi is just not averse to inventive concepts for peace. His actual concern stays Pakistan’s alleged continued sponsorship of terrorism. If Trump might persuade the Pakistan Military to interrupt with its lengthy custom of supporting extremism and open the way in which for cross-border commerce, then Modi is likely to be blissful to reply. In any case, Modi started his first time period in 2014 by inviting then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration, and in 2015, he made a shock go to to Lahore to open doorways for safety cooperation. Together with his nationalist credentials and robust home standing, Modi arguably has extra political capital than every other Indian chief to discover new peace initiatives.
On the Korean Peninsula, Seoul’s progressives have lengthy advocated engagement with Pyongyang, relationship again to former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Coverage of the late Nineteen Nineties. Financial cooperation was tried however faltered, partly because of Washington’s reluctance to maneuver past the nuclear weapons situation. Trump broke that mildew in his first time period by assembly with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un thrice. Trump stays much less sure by typical knowledge than his predecessors and extra prepared to discover peace as enterprise.
The actual obstacles to “peace as enterprise” lie with the Pakistan Military and North Korea’s Kim dynasty. Every fears that reconciliation would erode its maintain on energy. But when they may very well be assured that their dominance would stay intact—and if enterprise offers may very well be structured to learn each by lifting up the sagging economies of Pakistan and North Korea—then new pathways to stability may open in each South Asia and Northeast Asia. Who is aware of—it might even win Trump and his fellow peacemakers a Nobel Prize.
