Just one week ago, Ukraine and Russia were set to sit down for continued negotiations aimed at ending their four-year war.
But in a twist, the meeting’s location is now up in the air because Iran—Russia’s ally—is attacking the originally planned location, Abu Dhabi.
The canceled location is so far one of the few visible signs of how the U.S. war on Iran is immediately affecting the future of the Russia-Ukraine war. But analysts, diplomats, and U.S. congressional staff see danger ahead as the war eats into key munitions stockpiles and influences U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign-policy calculus—with some predicting that a quagmire in Iran could cause Trump to push even harder to end the war in Ukraine.
On the flip side, though, the Iran war could buy Ukraine some political capital in the White House and U.S. Defense Department. And that’s because the United States is currently asking for Ukraine’s help in battling Tehran’s Shahed drones.
Iran produces drones for less than $50,000 each, but the United States and its allies have few methods of cheaply destroying them. But Ukraine has developed cost-effective methods of destroying the drones, a version of which Russia also produces with assistance from Iran.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that he will provide the United States with the help it needs. “I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security,” he said.
Ukraine is also helping the Gulf states, which have been reportedly using expensive Patriot missiles to destroy the cheap drones. Ukraine’s assistance could therefore reduce the pressure on demand and free more up for use against Russia’s ballistic missiles.
But Zelensky’s statement also included what appeared to be a not-so-subtle nod to his newfound leverage. “Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people,” he said.
Just how much help Ukraine can provide is an open question, though, particularly as Ukraine needs its own interceptors to shoot down Russian drones.
Meanwhile, if the war in Iran drags on, it threatens to reduce U.S. stockpiles of the same munitions that Ukraine needs—particularly U.S.-made Patriot missiles.
Trump projected confidence about U.S. munitions stockpiles to Politico on Tuesday: “We have unlimited of the middle- and upper middle- ammunition.” Iran is “running out of launchers,” he added, meaning that fewer Patriot missiles and other interceptors will be needed over time.
However, stockpiles of some key weapons, such as Patriot missiles, are reportedly limited. While there are plans to increase purchases, the U.S. military currently buys new missiles in the low hundreds each year.
That math has left some in the U.S. government and Europe skeptical that the Trump administration can balance war in Iran with security commitments elsewhere, including to Ukraine. “They probably do not know themselves, as it will depend on how the war goes,” said one European diplomat, who spoke to Foreign Policy on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
“It is clear that the war will impact Ukraine, Taiwan, and all other security assistance,” said a senior congressional aide, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.
That math also caused Zelensky to ring alarm bells earlier this week. “We understand that a long war [in Iran]—if it is long—and the intensity of the military actions will affect the amount of air defense we receive,” he said.
The drain on weapons could affect current defensive supplies, like air defense, that Ukraine relies on, as well as constrain U.S. options for giving offensive weapons to Ukraine, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Trump administration had previously considered sending powerful long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which would be useful for devastating Russian oil production facilities.
“The U.S. use of Tomahawk missiles [in Iran] likely means whatever chance of the Trump administration providing that platform to Ukraine is gone,” Bergmann said.
Analysts are also pondering how the war in Iran might influence Trump’s own thinking on international diplomacy and his complex relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Success in Iran could potentially embolden Trump to put more pressure on Russia, said John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Still, Herbst discounted the chances of Trump treating Russia the same way that he has treated weaker countries like Iran. “He has this thing with Putin, which gets in the way of sound analysis,” he said.
Conversely, if the United States struggles in Iran, then it could push Trump to seek a win elsewhere and make a deal with Russia on Ukraine, said Peter Slezkine, director of the Russia Program at the Stimson Center.
“Trump has always been more amenable to the [neoconservative] view of Iran than of Russia. If anything, an extended American embroilment in the Middle East might make him even more interested in reaching a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine,” Slezkine said.
In a possibly ominous sign for Ukraine, Trump took a swipe at Zelensky via a Truth Social post discussing U.S. ammunition stockpiles. “Joe Biden spent all of his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to P.T. Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine,” he posted on Monday.
However, Herbst wrote off the slight as unlikely to reflect greater antipathy to Ukraine than usual, noting that it wasn’t the first time that Trump had compared Zelensky to the circus entertainer.
Trump renewed his criticism of Zelensky in an interview with Politico on Thursday, saying that the Ukrainian leader “has to get on the ball, and he has to get a deal done.”
“It’s unthinkable that he’s the obstacle,” Trump added, referring to Zelensky. “You don’t have the cards. Now he’s got even less cards.”
But Ukraine does have some cards to play when it comes to Washington.
Since a disastrous meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the White House in February 2025, which was followed by a pause on U.S. assistance to Ukraine, Kyiv has pursued a multi-pronged policy to win the Trump administration’s favor.
On trade, a top concern for the Trump administration, Ukraine has moved forward with a critical minerals deal that would see U.S. companies gain access to its mineral resources. Ukraine has also worked on energy deals with the United States, including the purchase of U.S. liquefied natural gas via Greece.
Ukraine has also increasingly emphasized the importance of religion and highlighted the Russian military’s persecution of Christians in occupied Ukrainian territory. In early February, Ukraine held a prayer breakfast in Washington that was attended by top Trump administration officials, including Paula White-Cain, senior advisor to the newly created White House Faith Office, and Riley Barnes, assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor at the U.S. State Department.
Religious outreach may have contributed, in part, to the White House reportedly canceling a meeting last November with Russian faith leaders, who were accusing Ukraine of religious oppression—although the same group did meet with Trump administration officials and Congress members.
Ukraine has also won the attention of U.S. first lady Melania Trump, who is now focused on the issue of Ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by Russian forces. In February, Melania Trump said that work with Putin’s staff is ongoing.
Still, some are skeptical that the cards Ukraine has played to win over Trump’s allies translate into influence over Trump himself, who—from Iran to his handling of the case of convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein—has taken actions that break with his constituencies’ interests.
“The [kidnapped] children issue has had an impact in Trump world—there’s no doubt about it,” Herbst said. “But, of course, Trump doesn’t really care that much about Trump world.”
