How 2024-25 CFP Would’ve Appeared Underneath Proposed Enlargement Codecs

The Faculty Soccer Playoff will virtually definitely increase once more in 2026, going from a 12-team format to a 14- or 16-team format. Whereas we don’t know which of those it will be, it’s at all times enjoyable to consider what issues might appear to be.

In the newest episode of “The Joel Klatt Present: Large Midday Conversations,” Large Ten commissioner Tony Petitti broke down how discussions over the CFP enlargement are going, as he holds a key position. He additionally shared that he’s searching for extra significant video games within the CFP enlargement and believes {that a} 16-team format might assist accomplish that. 

“Greater is best,” Petitti stated. “I believe 12 isn’t sufficient groups given the dimensions of the groups which might be competing. You have a look at skilled leagues, they [have] someplace between 40% and 50% of their groups qualifying for the postseason. We’re means beneath that, even at 16. I believe we wish to be actually cautious.”

As Petitti doubtlessly seeks a 16-team CFP, the willpower of which 16 (or 14) groups would qualify remains to be up for debate. Computerized qualifiers would doubtless be concerned in some kind or vogue. 

So, let’s see how the proposed codecs for the CFP enlargement might have impacted final yr’s area, with the consideration that the CFP has already gone to a straight seeding mannequin after final yr.

4+4+2+2+1+3 format

On this format of the 16-team mannequin, the Large Ten and the SEC would’ve obtained 4 automated bids to the CFP, whereas the ACC and Large 12 every would’ve obtained two. There additionally would’ve been an automated spot for the highest-ranked Group of 5 convention champion and three at-large bids. With the concept of a convention championship weekend being thrown on the market as an extension to the CFP enlargement, we used the standings for the 4 main conferences to assist decide which groups would have obtained these automated qualifying spots.

Within the Large Ten, each Oregon and Penn State would’ve obtained an automated bid, as that they had the 2 finest convention data within the common season. The opposite two video games within the Large Ten throughout convention championship weekend would have been Illinois (No. 6 within the Large Ten standings) at Indiana (No. 3 within the Large Ten standings) and Iowa (No. 5 within the Large Ten standings) at Ohio State (No. 4 within the Large Ten standings). The winner of these two video games would’ve obtained the 2 automated bids. On this apply, let’s presume that Indiana and Ohio State win their respective video games.

Within the SEC, each Georgia and Texas would’ve obtained an automated bid, as that they had the 2 finest convention data within the common season. The opposite two video games within the SEC would’ve been South Carolina (No. 6 within the SEC standings) at Tennessee (No. 3 within the SEC standings) and LSU (No. 5 within the SEC standings) at Alabama (No. 4 within the SEC standings). Similar to the Large Ten, the winners of these video games would’ve obtained the convention’s two different automated bids. So, let’s presume the favorites of these video games win, which means Tennessee and Alabama advance.

As for the ACC and the Large 12, it isn’t precisely recognized what their convention championship weekends would appear to be. The ACC just lately talked about an concept the place it might have its regular-season convention champion get a bye that week, which means the second- and third-place groups within the regular-season standings play for the convention’s different automated berth.

For the sake of this train, let’s ship the 2 groups who completed No. 1 and No. 2 within the common season standings for the ACC and Large 12 to the CFP. That might imply SMU and Clemson would advance out of the ACC, whereas Arizona State and Iowa State would’ve superior out of the Large 12. Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of 5 convention champion, receiving the No. 9 rating within the remaining CFP ballot. That was a straightforward one to determine.

As for the three at-large spots, that’s the place issues may get somewhat difficult. Notre Dame was ranked fifth within the remaining CFP ballot, which means it might’ve doubtless occupied certainly one of these at-large bids. If we glided by the rankings, Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss would’ve obtained the ultimate two at-large spots. Nonetheless, neither of these groups would’ve performed in convention championship weekend throughout this train, resulting in some potential murkiness with assembling the sphere. For now, let’s ship Miami and Ole Miss to the CFP.

Right here’s how that 16-team area would’ve seemed below that format, utilizing the ultimate CFP rankings: 

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami (Fla.)
14. Ole Miss
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State 

First two groups out: South Carolina, BYU

One of many concepts being thrown on the market for the 16-team CFP is for the highest two seeds to get a double bye and a play-in spherical between the No. 13-16 seeds. That might imply Miami would host Iowa State, which was the Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup this previous season, and Ole Miss would host Clemson. As for second-round matchups, Ohio State would’ve hosted Alabama and Notre Dame would’ve hosted Arizona State. Oregon additionally would’ve averted Ohio State within the quarterfinals because of the straight seeding. 

5+11 format

That is in all probability the simplest of the 5 codecs to know. On this format, the 5 highest-ranked convention winners plus the 11 highest-ranked at-large groups would’ve obtained a berth into the 2024 CFP.

Right here’s how that might’ve seemed like:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami (Fla.)
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson

First two groups out: BYU, Iowa State

Within the attainable state of affairs that there is a “play-in weekend,” we might’ve seen two convention matchups happening. Miami would’ve hosted Clemson after the Tigers gained the ACC Championship Sport, whereas Ole Miss would’ve hosted South Carolina. This format would’ve actually solely modified the final two seeds from the earlier format, with South Carolina taking Iowa State’s spot within the area. That might’ve left the Large 12 with only one staff within the match. 

4+4+2.5+2.5+1+2 format

This format is much like the primary format we talked about. The one distinction is that there would’ve been yet one more automated bid for an ACC staff or the Large 12 would obtain a 3rd automated bid, relying on which convention’s third-place staff is ranked greater. Because of this, there would’ve been one fewer at-large spot. 

For the sake of brevity, let’s assume that the identical eight groups from the Large Ten and the SEC within the first format obtain the eight automated bids between the 2 conferences on this format. Let’s additionally assume SMU, Clemson, Arizona State and Iowa State additionally obtain the primary two automated bids from their respective conferences, the ACC and the Large 12.

That would go away Miami and BYU as the 2 third-place groups from the ACC and the Large 12 searching for the opposite automated qualifying spot. Miami was the higher-ranked staff of the 2 (No. 13 to BYU’s No. 17 rating), which means the Hurricanes would advance to the CFP. But when the CFP actually needed to get inventive, it might have the third-place groups within the ACC and the Large 12 go head-to-head for this spot.

Once more, Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of 5 convention champion, so it might’ve obtained a spot on this format. Notre Dame was ranked fifth within the remaining CFP ballot, so it doubtless would’ve been given one of many final at-large bids. Ole Miss would’ve been the second-highest ranked non-automatic-qualifying staff, doubtless giving it a berth within the CFP.

Right here’s what the 16-team area would’ve seemed like on this format:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami (Fla.)
14. Ole Miss
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State

First two groups out: South Carolina, BYU

This format would’ve produced the very same 16 groups and seeds as the primary format we talked about. The large distinction is that the slight tweak would’ve given Miami an automated bid, as not one of the different codecs would’ve given the Hurricanes a assured spot within the area final season. It additionally would’ve given some extra stability to the ACC or the Large 12, as their respective conferences’ third-place staff sometimes isn’t ranked within the prime 10 of the ultimate CFP ballot. 

4+4+3+3+1+1 format

On this proposed format, the ACC and the Large 12 would every get three automated qualifiers, whereas the Large Ten and the SEC would nonetheless get 4. There would even be an automated qualifier for the highest-ranked Group of 5 convention champion to associate with one at-large bid.

As with the opposite two examples the place the Large Ten and the SEC get 4 automated qualifiers, we’ll assume the identical eight groups make it into the sphere through the convention championship weekend. How the ACC and the Large 12 would decide their three automated qualifiers on this state of affairs is anybody’s guess, however the easiest way can be to have the highest two groups in every convention within the common season occupying two of these spots, whereas the third can be decided by a play-in sport. If the higher-ranked staff gained these video games, we’d have SMU, Clemson and Miami representing the ACC, whereas Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU would get the Large 12’s three automated qualifiers.

Once more, Boise State can be the Group of 5 consultant and Notre Dame would doubtless occupy the lone at-large spot. 

Right here’s how the sphere would’ve like on this state of affairs: 

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami (Fla.)
14. Clemson
15. Iowa State
16. BYU

First two groups out: Ole Miss, South Carolina

The large distinction on this format is Ole Miss wouldn’t qualify for the CFP as a result of it didn’t end within the prime six of the SEC, nor was it the highest-ranked remaining staff for an at-large spot. A possible play-in weekend on this state of affairs would’ve featured two ACC-Large 12 battles, whereas the highest 12 seeds stay in keeping with the opposite three codecs we’ve gone over to date.

14 staff format: 4+4+2+2+1+1

Whereas it appears unlikely, a 14-team format remains to be on the desk for the most recent spherical of CFP enlargement. The commonest format for a 14-team playoff options 4 automated bids for the Large Ten and the SEC, whereas the ACC and the Large 12 get two apiece. The best-ranked Group of 5 convention champion would additionally get an automated bid, whereas there can be an at-large bid for the highest-ranked remaining staff.

This format is similar to the primary format we talked about; it simply has two fewer at-large bids. So, the 4 groups representing the Large Ten and the SEC would stay the identical in our apply state of affairs. The identical goes for the ACC (SMU and Clemson) and the Large 12 (Arizona State and Iowa State), however as we talked about earlier, it’s unclear what every of these conferences would doubtless do for a convention championship weekend if it had two automated bids. 

Similar to the opposite codecs, Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion) and Notre Dame (highest-ranked at-large staff) would additionally make the sphere.

Right here’s how a possible 14-team CFP format would’ve seemed like final season:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Clemson
14. Iowa State

First two groups out: Miami, Ole Miss

The highest 12 seeds on this format would’ve remained the identical in comparison with the opposite 4 codecs, however that is the primary format that doesn’t embody Miami. 

A play-in weekend additionally wouldn’t be attainable in a 14-team format. Oregon and Georgia would’ve obtained first-round byes as the opposite 12 groups duked it out. A few of these first-round matchups would’ve included a sport between former Large 12 foes (Iowa State-Texas), Clemson making the journey as much as Completely satisfied Valley to tackle Penn State and Alabama dealing with Ohio State.

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