American soybean farmers are heading into harvest season with out a single order from China, traditionally their largest buyer, elevating alarm bells concerning the agricultural sector’s stability and broader implications for the U.S. financial system.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Affiliation and a ninth-generation farmer from Kentucky, issued a stark warning concerning the disaster dealing with the nation’s 500,000 soybean growers. “Proper now, we’re in a really dire scenario,” Ragland mentioned in a TikTok video that has drawn nationwide consideration to farmers’ plight.
In a separate CNN interview, Ragland emphasised the dimensions of China’s significance to American agriculture: “China takes extra of our soybeans than all different overseas prospects mixed,” he mentioned, noting that fifty% of U.S. soybeans are exported and China represents 1 / 4 of complete demand.
The absence of Chinese language orders represents a dramatic departure from regular buying and selling patterns. China usually accounted for over 25% of complete U.S. soybean purchases, with roughly one-third of annual gross sales to the nation usually booked by this level within the season. This interprets to roughly 8%-9% of the whole U.S. crop that might usually be offered to China by now at present sitting at zero.
The commerce dispute has pushed already-struggling farmers to the brink. Ragland informed CNN that soybean costs have fallen 40% from their ranges three years in the past, whereas manufacturing prices and rates of interest have risen. “We’re taking a look at mainly losses for the upcoming yr if commodity costs don’t enhance,” he mentioned.
Present soybean futures costs replicate the uncertainty, buying and selling round $10.10 per bushel for September contracts—effectively under estimated manufacturing prices of roughly $11.03 per bushel. Ragland’s personal farm is at present producing $750,000 in losses, forcing him to depend on loans to bridge the monetary hole.
“Proper now we’re planting a crop that appears like it is going to be produced at a loss,” he informed CNN. “By fall, when the soybeans are harvested and able to promote, we’re gonna want a drastic enchancment in our markets or it’s gonna get even more durable for farm households all throughout this nation.”
The monetary stress extends past particular person operations. “There’s not a lot room for error proper now within the budgets,” Ragland mentioned, emphasizing that every one 500,000 soybean farmers nationwide face comparable challenges.
Financial stakes attain past farming
The implications prolong far past particular person farms. Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion to the U.S. financial system yearly, representing 18.7% of complete nationwide financial output. The agricultural sector straight and not directly helps over one million American jobs, with soybean exports alone producing greater than 231,000 jobs throughout farming, manufacturing, transportation, and associated industries.
Ragland highlighted these broader financial connections in his CNN interview: “That trickles right down to our rural communities. Our rural communities are a variety of people throughout this nation. And that impacts small enterprise. That impacts simply the entire infrastructure inside our communities.”
In 2023, each $1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports supported roughly 5,997 jobs. Soybeans and corn bulk exports alone supported over 212,520 jobs. The financial multiplier impact means disruptions to soybean commerce ripple by way of manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities nationwide.
Commerce tensions reshape world markets
The standoff stems from ongoing U.S.-China commerce tensions, which have basically altered world soybean commerce patterns. U.S. soybeans at present face a 20% retaliatory tariff drawback in comparison with South American rivals, pushing the overall responsibility fee on American soybeans to 34% when mixed with different taxes.
China has responded by dramatically rising purchases from Brazil. Chinese language soybean imports hit file highs in July, pushed largely by Brazilian exports. Brazil exported roughly 15.7 million tons of soybeans in March 2025, with three-quarters destined for China—the best month-to-month quantity ever exported to China. In 2024, China sourced 71% of its complete soybean imports from Brazil, up from earlier years.
The American Soybean Affiliation warned in an August 19 letter to President Trump that “China has contracted with Brazil to fulfill future months’ must keep away from buying any soybeans from the USA.”
Appeals for swift authorities motion
Regardless of his assist for Trump, Ragland has change into more and more vocal concerning the want for quick commerce decision. “We desperately have to get one thing rectified shortly with China, our largest export buyer,” he informed CNN. “We wanna encourage the administration to get a proactive commerce deal carried out.”
When requested concerning the administration’s requires persistence, Ragland emphasised the time-sensitive nature of the disaster. Farmers are “planning a crop that appears like it is going to be produced at a loss,” and with out market enhancements earlier than harvest, the scenario will deteriorate additional.
The broader agricultural sector is experiencing what business teams describe as an financial disaster. The Nationwide Corn Growers Affiliation reviews corn costs have fallen greater than 50% from their 2022 highs, with manufacturing prices declining solely 3% over the identical interval. This agricultural downturn comes because the 2025 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at practically 4.3 billion bushels, the nation’s sixth-largest harvest in historical past. Nevertheless, with out Chinese language demand, this ample provide threatens to additional depress costs and worsen farmers’ monetary misery.
The scenario echoes the 2018-2020 commerce struggle, throughout which U.S. agriculture misplaced $26 billion, with practically $20 billion in soybean losses alone. Soybeans accounted for 71% of agricultural losses skilled by American farmers throughout that earlier battle.
Time operating out for decision
The urgency displays the seasonal nature of agricultural markets. As harvest approaches and storage services fill with unsold grain, costs usually face further downward stress. With out decision quickly, farmers could also be compelled to promote their crops at deeply discounted costs or face costly storage prices by way of the winter months.
Present commerce dynamics present restricted progress towards decision. Whereas President Trump signed an govt order in August extending the present tariff truce with China by 90 days by way of November 10, the extension primarily addresses broader commerce points moderately than agricultural-specific issues.
Ragland framed the disaster by way of nationwide energy: “We need to hold this nation sturdy. We’re the spine of America,” he mentioned.
Regardless of acknowledging that he believes Trump “loves farmers” and is “making an attempt to do what’s proper for this nation,” he emphasised the necessity for quick motion: “We gotta make it possible for we survive by way of these robust occasions.”
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to assist with an preliminary draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the data earlier than publishing.
