And then there were four.
After two lopsided quarterfinals and two instant classics, the College Football Playoff has reached its penultimate stage with only one of the top-4 seeds remaining. By now, we’ve bid farewell to No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech as teams that earned an opening-round bye fell to just 1-7 across the first two years of this expanded 12-team format. Who would have thought that sudden-juggernaut Indiana, which validated its No. 1 ranking by hammering No. 9 Alabama, 38-3, in the Rose Bowl, was poised to buck a trend that has, thus far, confounded one perennial power after another.
It means that our remaining semifinalists are largely unfamiliar with this type of stage, this type of institution-altering opportunity, particularly in the modern era. Only No. 10 Miami, which eliminated the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl, has captured a national championship in the last 60 years, finishing atop the sport’s hierarchy a handful of times in a bygone era: 2001, 1991, 1989, 1987 and 1983. The Hurricanes’ next opponent, No. 6 Ole Miss, last reached the pinnacle in 1960, when the Rebels split a national title with Minnesota. And in the opposite semifinal, where Indiana will meet No. 5 Oregon, there’s not a championship trophy in sight; both schools would be first-time winners. Stories don’t get much better than that.
[2025 College Football Playoff Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each CFP Semifinal Game]
Right here’s a breakdown of my predictions for the CFP semifinals:
CFP Predictions: Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Miami
(Picture by CFP/Getty Photographs)
First, a nod to what new Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding and his gamers completed by upending Georgia, 39-34, in maybe the wildest CFP sport ever performed. Abandoned by their unique coach, Lane Kiffin, earlier than the postseason even started, the Rebels are writing a narrative the likes of which this sport has by no means been seen: Assistant coaches flying backwards and forwards on a near-daily foundation between Oxford and LSU, the place Kiffin is now in cost, as they fight desperately to straddle two jobs directly amid faculty soccer’s jam-packed calendar; gamers bombarded with inquiries and affords to enter the switch portal — or maybe flip professional — whereas navigating probably the most pressurized week of their careers; a former chief in Kiffin tweeting his ideas in actual time and pocketing ever-increasing bonus checks with every Ole Miss victory. For the Rebels to shoulder all of that and nonetheless compartmentalize properly sufficient to avenge a daily season loss to Georgia, the SEC champions, was outstanding — as spectacular a feat as every whirling scramble and gutsy throw from star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, the Division II switch from Ferris State. By no means will Ole Miss followers overlook that night time.
[College Football Playoff Predictions: Nick Saban’s Coaching Tree on Display at Semis]
However is that this semifinal towards Miami a bridge too far? Is that this the week when so many disruptions and distractions lastly show insurmountable? The Rebels loved a major expertise benefit throughout their opening-round beat-down of No. 11 Tulane, a group from exterior the facility conferences that Ole Miss had already clobbered earlier this yr. And whereas Georgia was a considerably harder opponent within the quarterfinals, Ole Miss nonetheless benefitted from having a full complement of coaches — minus Kiffin — for game-planning and follow functions.
That gained’t be the case this week as a number of LSU-bound assistant coaches are reportedly transitioning away from Oxford for good, turning their consideration to roster-building efforts in Baton Rouge. It leaves Golding and Ole Miss with one thing of a skeleton crew to arrange for this week’s semifinal towards the Hurricanes whereas concurrently navigating the switch portal, which opened at midnight on Jan. 2, minutes after the Rebels polished off Georgia. Golding assured reporters over the weekend that staffing issues gained’t impede Ole Miss, however that is beginning to really feel like an internet so tangled that even the Rebels, who’ve defied expectations at each flip, won’t be capable of escape. The dream season is lastly minimize quick.
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Indiana
To counsel that Friday’s sport may be boiled all the way down to quarterback play — and, extra particularly, which signal-caller performs higher within the matchup between Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner — is considerably dismissive of how well-rounded these groups actually are. The Geese rank fifteenth nationally in dashing at 206.2 yards per sport courtesy of a three-headed assault by which tailbacks Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. have all rushed for at the least 570 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Hoosiers, in the meantime, rank eleventh nationally in dashing at 220.7 yards per sport due to a one-two punch of tailbacks Roman Hemby (previously of Maryland) and Kaelon Black (previously of James Madison) that can probably surpass 2,000 mixed yards for the season on Friday night time. In different phrases, each groups take pleasure in sufficient stability offensively to win this sport with out next-level performances from their respective quarterbacks.
(Picture by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Photographs)
However Moore and Mendoza are, unquestionably, next-level quarterbacks, and it’s attainable they may grow to be the top-2 picks within the 2026 NFL Draft if each gamers determine to depart college early. Scouts and common managers galore will likely be glued to the Peach Bowl as they proceed formulating evaluations for a quarterback class not thought of notably sturdy on the prime. That’s why the head-to-head factor between Moore and Mendoza is so intriguing, particularly as a result of they already matched wits at Autzen Stadium earlier this season. On that afternoon, Mendoza acquired the higher of Moore in a sport that showcased arguably the largest schism between them: making clutch throws when the pocket collapses. Mendoza, the previous Cal switch, has persistently confirmed himself to be among the many most unflappable quarterbacks within the nation. Moore, whose physique language round defenders is commonly wrought with discomfort, leaves loads to be desired in these moments.
Contemplate this comparability of how every participant performs underneath stress based mostly on information from Professional Soccer Focus (amongst quarterbacks with at the least 95 such dropbacks):
- NFL passer rating — Mendoza 106.8 (1st nationally); Moore 81.8 (14th)
- Passing grade — Mendoza 71.4 (2nd nationally); Moore 58.6 (17th)
- Big-time throws — Mendoza 7 (t-13th nationally); Moore 2 (t-72nd)
- First downs produced — Mendoza 41 (t-7th nationally); Moore 27 (t-57th)
All of which may be decreased to a slightly easy query that, greater than probably, will dictate the result of this sport: Can Indiana generate stress on Moore?
The final time these groups performed, on Oct. 11, the Hoosiers harassed Moore to the tune of 24 pressures, six sacks and 4 further hits that resulted in a season-high two interceptions. And given what Indiana simply did to Alabama’s hulking offensive line final week — slashing the Crimson Tide for 20 pressures, three sacks and 5 further quarterback hits, one among which knocked starter Ty Simpson out of the sport — it will be unwise to wager towards the Hoosiers on Friday night time.
Michael Cohen covers faculty soccer and faculty basketball for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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