By now, everybody is aware of that Elon Musk could be very a lot an optimist in relation to making predictions.
That is the good option to put it. To be blunt, Musk is a “bullshit artist.” He makes guarantees he cannot maintain. For instance, everybody now’s possible very acquainted with his notorious 2011 interview with the Wall Avenue Journal the place he mentioned he’d put a person on Mars in 10 years. That was 14 years in the past now and we’re nowhere close to placing anybody on Mars. Years in the past, Musk additionally touted his proposed Hyperloop prepare system as a option to rapidly transport individuals between cities; that by no means got here to fruition and was possible a ruse to cease different transit tasks.
With 2025 practically over, Mashable determined to revisit his predictions associated to this 12 months. Time has run out. What did Musk promise for this 12 months that did not come to fruition?
Folks on Mars by 2025
Sure, I simply talked about that 2011 Wall Avenue Journal interview the place Musk promised to place a person on Mars in 10 years. Nonetheless, this one is a very separate promise from Musk concerning a person on Mars.
Again in 2016 — roughly 4 years after his 10-year WSJ declare — Musk made an look throughout Recode’s Code 2016 convention. Throughout a dialog with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg, Musk pushed again his earlier Mars arrival prediction that positioned people on the purple planet by 2021. In line with Musk, SpaceX would begin sending rockets to Mars by 2018, adopted by a brand new Mars mission each 26 months, and then they’d begin sending individuals.
“If issues go in keeping with plan, we must always be capable to launch individuals in all probability in 2024 with arrival in 2025,” Musk mentioned, referring to colonists arriving on the planet.
Nope — 2025 has come and gone and we’re nonetheless not on Mars.
NASA Mars rover captures crackling lightning. Hear the ‘thunder’ your self.
Tesla robotaxis would cowl half of the U.S. inhabitants
Take a stroll exterior. What number of Tesla robotaxis do you see? None, you say? And also you say you reside in Austin, Texas – the one place within the U.S. the place robotaxis are presently working?
That is odd. As a result of in July, throughout Tesla’s Q2 quarterly monetary report, Musk informed buyers that Tesla’s robotaxis can be serving half of the nation.
“I consider half of the inhabitants of the US might be lined by Tesla’s robotaxi by the tip of the 12 months,” Musk mentioned.
Clearly, that is not true. And a brand new report from the New York Instances final week discovered that even Austin locals hardly ever, if ever, got here throughout Tesla’s robotaxis.
Because the EV outlet Electrek identified on the time of his declare, it was preposterous for Musk to make. But, he made the declare with a straight face and buyers believed him.
Absolutely driverless Tesla robotaxis
Talking of Tesla’s robotaxis, in case you do come throughout one, do you know you will really discover a human security monitor driving inside? You’ll, regardless of what Musk beforehand promised.
“Teslas might be within the wild with nobody in them, in June in Austin,” Musk mentioned final 12 months in a 2024 This autumn earnings name. “This isn’t some far-off legendary state of affairs, it is 5, six months away.”
Whereas Tesla’s robotaxi service did arrive in Austin throughout that timeline, they weren’t “with nobody in them.” The extent of autonomy that Tesla’s performs at requires a human security monitor to trip contained in the car, in keeping with Texas laws.
However, Musk promised a number of instances over the previous few months that these human security displays can be eliminated by the tip of 2025.
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Musk mentioned so in a submit in September on X.
“The protection driver is simply there for the primary few months to be further secure,” Musk mentioned. “Must be no security driver by finish of 12 months.”
Mashable Gentle Pace
Musk reiterated that schedule throughout an earnings name in October.
“We predict to don’t have any security drivers in a minimum of massive components of Austin by the tip of this 12 months, so inside a number of months,” Musk mentioned.
After which Musk repeated that declare in early December throughout an xAI hackathon.
“Unsupervised is just about solved at this level,” acknowledged Musk. “So there might be Tesla robotaxis working in Austin with nobody in them. Not even anybody within the passenger seat in about three weeks.”
Final week, Musk posted that he had taken a trip in a completely driverless Tesla robotaxi in Austin. A Tesla worker shared a video from inside a driverless trip as nicely. Nonetheless, these look like take a look at runs as common prospects nonetheless report human security displays are nonetheless a part of the trip, as least as of very late December.
xAI would obtain AGI
Synthetic normal intelligence or AGI is mainly the holy grail for the present AI-obsessed tech trade. AGI will be outlined as the kind of synthetic intelligence that we had been promised in sci-fi motion pictures. It isn’t a big language mannequin that may sound human, like current AI, however AI that may really carry out mental duties identical to a human. It may possibly assume, be taught, motive, and take motion.
In 2024, in a reply on his social media platform X, Musk mentioned his AI firm xAI would obtain AGI in 2025.
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“How lengthy till AGI?” posted Logan Kilpatrick of Google AI Studio.
“Subsequent 12 months,” Musk replied.
“Massive if true,” Kilpatrick responded.
Effectively, shock. It wasn’t true.
In line with a brand new report from Enterprise Insider, Musk has since moved the goalposts and says xAI may obtain AGI within the subsequent few years and doubtlessly even by subsequent 12 months! We’ll report again on the finish of 2026 until Musk’s model of Skynet has taken over.
A flying automobile / demo of the long-awaited Tesla Roadster
This can be a combo of two potential guarantees, because it’s nonetheless unclear what the heck Musk was really referring to on Joe Rogan’s podcast again in November.
Throughout an look on the Joe Rogan Expertise, Musk claimed that Tesla would drop a demo of the long-awaited Roadster, a car which the corporate introduced and began taking preorders for in 2017. The Tesla Roadster has nonetheless but to be launched eight years later.
“We’re getting near demonstrating the prototype,” Musk mentioned to Rogan in the course of the present. “I believe this might be…one factor I can assure is that this product demo might be unforgettable.”
When pressed for a timeline from Rogan, Musk replied “hopefully earlier than the tip of the 12 months.”
Nonetheless, Musk went additional, recalling how his “good friend” Peter Thiel would say that the longer term was presupposed to have flying automobiles, but we do not have flying automobiles. Rogan questioned Musk additional however Musk simply hinted that Thief ought to be capable to purchase a flying automobile and we would all simply have to attend to see the demo.
So, was Musk saying that the Roadster can fly? Was Musk even being severe in regards to the flying automobile? Who is aware of. However, 2025 is now over and we do not have a demo of a flying automobile or a Roadster so Musk did not ship on both.
DOGE would minimize $2 trillion in ‘waste, fraud and abuse’
Following Donald Trump’s reelection, Musk was given the prospect to go up a brand new quasi-government company referred to as DOGE by which he pledged to chop $2 trillion in what he described as “waste, fraud and abuse.”
DOGE rapidly grew to become fairly controversial as Musk and his very younger workforce struggled to seek out any actual “waste, fraud, and abuse” within the federal authorities. A lot of DOGE’s claims of fraud had been debunked and the group had a penchant for posting inaccurate information which put the group in a extra favorable gentle.
Musk’s promise of $2 trillion in cuts rapidly grew to become a promise of $1 trillion in cuts. That $1 trillion promise? That quickly was rounded down additional to the lots of of billions.
Now, new evaluation from the New York Instances in addition to the right-wing CATO Institute, discovered that DOGE really did not save something. Most of the authorities contacts that DOGE claimed to cancel are nonetheless lively. The truth is, authorities spending really went up on DOGE’s watch.
“The federal authorities spent $7.6 trillion within the first 11 months of calendar 12 months 2025, roughly $248 billion increased by November of 2025 in comparison with the identical month in 2024,” the CATO Institute’s evaluation mentioned.
Whereas Musk didn’t ship on his DOGE guarantees, the cuts it did really make to USAID and international support applications have reportedly led to lots of of 1000’s of deaths. Comfortable new 12 months?
This text displays the opinions of the creator.
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