On Oct. 19, residents of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state below Turkey’s patronage within the northern third of the island of Cyprus, might be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a selection between two competing visions for his or her neighborhood: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, presents deeper alignment with the Turkish authorities and its undemocratic, combative insurance policies. The challenger, Tufan Erhurman, guarantees a extra balanced relationship with Ankara and a continued push for peace with the internationally acknowledged, European Union-member Republic of Cyprus (RoC).
Past the query of which future Turkish Cypriots need, there’s the larger query of whether or not their needs will matter. After placing its finger on the size in Tatar’s favor over the last presidential election, Ankara could effectively achieve this once more. And even when Erhurman wins, he might be severely constrained in his pursuit of peaceable reunification. Because of this, the island seems destined to stay divided, whereas the north is pulled deeper into Ankara’s geopolitical agenda.
On Oct. 19, residents of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state below Turkey’s patronage within the northern third of the island of Cyprus, might be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a selection between two competing visions for his or her neighborhood: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, presents deeper alignment with the Turkish authorities and its undemocratic, combative insurance policies. The challenger, Tufan Erhurman, guarantees a extra balanced relationship with Ankara and a continued push for peace with the internationally acknowledged, European Union-member Republic of Cyprus (RoC).
Past the query of which future Turkish Cypriots need, there’s the larger query of whether or not their needs will matter. After placing its finger on the size in Tatar’s favor over the last presidential election, Ankara could effectively achieve this once more. And even when Erhurman wins, he might be severely constrained in his pursuit of peaceable reunification. Because of this, the island seems destined to stay divided, whereas the north is pulled deeper into Ankara’s geopolitical agenda.
Because the incumbent, Tatar’s platform is evident. The candidate of the proper, Tatar has been selling Ankara’s imaginative and prescient for a two-state resolution in Cyprus primarily based on full recognition for Northern Cyprus.
Provided that the United Nations-sanctioned framework for a settlement remains to be that of a bizonal, bicommunal federation and on condition that the RoC—and the remainder of the world, for that matter— presently has no real interest in recognizing Northern Cyprus, Tatar’s coverage will be certain that the island stays divided. At greatest, it’s a ready recreation till some unsure level sooner or later when situations could also be extra favorable for the north’s worldwide recognition. At worst, it’s an excuse to construct ever nearer ties with Ankara to the purpose the place Northern Cyprus turns into a Turkish province in all however title.
In the meantime, Erhurman, the chief of the left-wing Republican Turkish Social gathering, nonetheless helps a federal resolution to the island’s division. He additionally desires a more healthy relationship with Turkey, one by which Turkish Cypriots would reclaim extra company in home and foreign-policy making and preserve their democratic traditions of free speech and an unbiased judiciary.
Northern Cyprus’s final presidential election, in 2020, was marred by Turkish interference on Tatar’s behalf. The then-incumbent, Mustafa Akinci, had made a variety of feedback that rubbed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his authorities the improper means. Because of this, Ankara intervened towards him. Extra ominously, Akinci mentioned he had been threatened by members of Turkish intelligence. Then got here allegations of Turkish-sponsored vote shopping for nearer to election day.
5 years on, Turkey continues to prop up Tatar. On July 20, Erdogan was in Northern Cyprus to have a good time the 51st anniversary of the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus. His arrival was introduced on billboards adorned along with his face subsequent to Tatar’s. The slogan accompanying the duo was “Crescent and Star: We Are on the Similar Path,” a phrase that sounds extra playful if not essentially poetic within the unique Turkish. Understandably, many Turkish Cypriots at the moment are questioning how far Turkey will go to find out the result of the upcoming election.
Certainly, it’s not possible to grasp the Turkish Cypriot election with out understanding the scenario in Turkey—the place many voters are additionally questioning whether or not they are going to ever have free and honest elections once more. With the incarceration of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the increasing crackdown on the Republican Individuals’s Social gathering, Turkey is turning into an instance of what political scientists name hegemonic electoral authoritarianism or what informal observers name Putinesque autocracy.
Now, Erdogan’s home and foreign-policy trajectory has ensured that he not has any incentive to hunt a political resolution on Cyprus—and as a substitute has ample motive to dam one. For starters, strengthening Turkey’s relationship with the EU is not the carrot that it was once. In any case, the EU doesn’t appear too perturbed by Turkey’s autocratic transformation as long as Ankara retains immigration in test.
However past this, Northern Cyprus has taken on an more and more outstanding function in Turkish protection considering. On account of rising safety cooperation between the RoC, Greece, Israel, and the United States over the previous decade, Turkey has come to really feel more and more contained within the Japanese Mediterranean. From this attitude, Northern Cyprus seems to be a key foothold for Turkey to bolster its southern flank.
Extra lately, Erdogan’s circle has come to consider Northern Cyprus has an much more essential function to play in Turkey’s long-term battle towards Israel. The unprecedented aggression of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities has led Turkish voters and policymakers to worry that they could fall into Israel’s crosshairs. Whereas a few of this displays long-standing paranoia, current developments, from the RoC’s current acquisition of Israeli air protection methods to direct threats in Israeli op-ed pages, have given these fears newfound substance. With Israel and Ankara now going through off in Syria as effectively, Northern Cyprus has been reworked right into a essential pawn in an even bigger geopolitical recreation.
On this context, it is sensible that Erdogan desires to protect the established order on the island. With the Turkish Air Pressure now working out of the Gecitkale airport, Northern Cyprus has successfully develop into Turkey’s unsinkable drone service within the Japanese Mediterranean. Main Turkish non-public pursuits are entrenched within the north’s economic system, profitable bids in large-scale infrastructure initiatives on the expense of native corporations. Turkey’s restructuring of the Turkish Cypriot authorities in its personal picture continues unabated with the opening of a presidential complicated that extravagantly mimics Erdogan’s Bestepe residence in Ankara. The demographic change seems unstoppable, too. Most of Northern Cyprus’s 45,000 new residents over the past decade have been arrivals from Turkey. Because of this, native Turkish Cypriots’ share within the citizens has fallen, in some estimates to 60 %.
Effectively-aware of Ankara’s deepening maintain on Northern Cyprus, Erhurman’s marketing campaign is continuing cautiously. He’s very cautious in his messaging round Turkey, promising in his election manifesto “session and intensive dialogue” with the “guarantor and brotherly Turkey.” He has even made some essential statements on the EU, denouncing the RoC-led makes an attempt to exclude Turkey and Turkish Cypriots from regional power, commerce, and safety points. Extra broadly, contemplating what occurred to Akinci, he’s making an attempt very arduous to not antagonize Ankara.
If Erhurman wins, he’s unlikely to take any unilateral steps on the peace course of with out first checking in with Erdogan’s workforce. At greatest, he would possibly pursue some confidence-building measures, reminiscent of opening new crossing factors between the north and south. If these efforts go nowhere, he could find yourself as a foreign-policy lame duck and easily deal with his home agenda.
Alternatively, if Tatar wins, Ankara will really feel justified in additional interfering with Northern Cyprus’s home politics and utilizing its territory to advance Turkish financial and geopolitical objectives. The anti-Tatar camp, on each the left and proper, will proceed to fret about the way forward for Turkish Cypriots’ secular way of life. A current legislation permitting college students to put on headscarves in public colleges which led to mass protests within the spring has been lately deemed unconstitutional by the north’s high courtroom, deepening the island’s tradition conflict.
Whoever wins, it’s turning into tougher to think about a future the place the Cyprus downside is settled peacefully in step with the pursuits of all stakeholders. The Erhurman marketing campaign presents hope to those that nonetheless wish to consider that Ankara’s revisionism may very well be tamed. However even when Turkish Cypriots are allowed free and honest elections this October, they received’t be allowed to have a say in what Ankara does subsequent. In Erdogan’s Turkey, selections are made by an internal circle in Ankara and faraway from the needs of Turkish Cypriots. At greatest, the Northern Cyprus elections might be a take a look at of how rapidly Ankara’s authoritarian contagion is spreading.
