If you happen to advised me proper now that Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Iowa State will wind up because the 4 No. 1 seeds of the 2026 NCAA Match, not solely would I agree, I’d most likely heckle you for the lukewarm take.
Actually going out on a limb there, choosing the 4 undefeated groups that occupy Nos. 1-4 within the AP ballot! Do you want UConn on the ladies’s aspect too?
However sarcasm apart, there’s a motive why that quartet has risen to its personal tier on the prime. Each a kind of 4 groups could make a case for one of the best workforce within the nation, and all of them earned first-place votes — even Iowa State, the college least related to basketball greatness traditionally.
The coaches’ ballot picked Michigan over Arizona by a mere 13 factors, whereas Duke has discovered its strategy to the highest of some energy rankings.
What units every of those groups aside from the opposite? Because you’re going to be listening to way more about them all through the season, let’s power-rank the Blue Devils, Wolverines, Wildcats and Cyclones and determine the true No. 1 six weeks into the season. (For Iowa State’s sake, let’s not use mascots as a class in our story of the tape. Creepy Cy the Cardinal belongs on a distinct form of checklist.)
4. Iowa State
Dec 6, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Iowa State Cyclones ahead Milan Momcilovic (22) dribbles the ball throughout the first half in opposition to the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Area. Obligatory Credit score: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Photographs The case for Iowa State: One doesn’t merely stroll into Mackey Area and pulverize a veteran Purdue squad. However that’s what Iowa State did final week, inflicting 15 turnovers and scoring 34 factors within the paint to dethrone the earlier No. 1 workforce. The Cyclones have additionally developed lately from a serviceable offensive workforce to a reasonably good one to one of the best taking pictures workforce within the nation — first in subject purpose share and third on 3-pointers.
The case in opposition to: Earlier than the Purdue recreation, Iowa State’s most spectacular win was by one level on a impartial flooring in opposition to St. John’s. And extra consistency could be nice. What occurred the opposite evening at house in opposition to rival Iowa? Giving up greater than 50% from the ground and trailing by double digits earlier than needing a comeback? The Cyclones could keep unbeaten into mid-January, however we will do higher.
3. Arizona
Dec 6, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats ahead Koa Pea (10) dunks the ball throughout the second half of the sport in opposition to the Auburn Tigers at McKale Memorial Middle. Obligatory Credit score: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Photographs The case for Arizona: By means of eight video games, half the Wildcats’ win have come in opposition to ranked power-conference groups, three of these have been away from Tucson, and 6 completely different gamers have led Arizona in scoring. These are indicators of a well-rounded workforce. They dominate the boards, they usually’re fourth nationally in subject purpose share.
The case in opposition to: Of the 4 groups we’re inspecting, Arizona lags within the metrics. They’re behind the others in KenPom, in KenPom protection, in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank, and in wins above bubble. In permitting 67.1 factors per recreation, they haven’t shut groups down the way in which you’d like. The Wildcats have one other likelihood to show their worthiness of the highest spot in opposition to No. 12 Alabama on Saturday evening in Birmingham.
2. Duke
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles previous Michigan State Spartans guard Divine Ugochukwu (99) throughout the first half at Jack Breslin Pupil Occasions Middle. Obligatory Credit score: Dale Younger-Imagn Photographs The case for Duke: It’s Duke. You’re going to say no to Duke? That’s like saying Notre Dame soccer can’t get automated entry to the playoff — by no means thoughts.
The Blue Devils have changed Cooper Flagg with Cameron Boozer and gone on their approach, amassing main wins: Kansas at MSG, Arkansas in Chicago, Florida at house and Michigan State at their place. Such a schedule hasn’t stopped Duke from posting a D1-best 34.1 FG% allowed, only a shade higher than Michigan…
The case in opposition to: Loopy as it’s to say, Duke’s obtained the least environment friendly offense of this group by a mile, going by taking pictures share a minimum of. Boozer leads them in most main classes and has a super-high utilization fee, to the purpose the place you surprise how the Blue Devils would fare if he’s on the bench in foul bother throughout an in depth recreation.
1. Michigan
The case for Michigan: This the place the metrics, the coaches and the common viewer can all come to an settlement. The Wolverines outstrip No. 2 Iowa State by greater than 3.5 factors in KenPom’s adjusted effectivity scores. Dusty Might has collected a number of terrific scoring choices in and out, beginning with rising star Yaxel Lendeborg, they usually defend about in addition to Michigan. They defend about in addition to Duke, main them to outshoot their opponents by a margin of 17.7 share factors.
The case in opposition to: Regardless that they’re additionally No. 1 in energy of report and Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble calculation, you would ask who the Wolverines have crushed relative to Duke. Didn’t they simply run up the rating on Auburn and Gonzaga on the Gamers Period? However Michigan simply hasn’t slowed down, constructing 25- and 30-point halftime leads in opposition to Rutgers and Villanova this previous week. I wouldn’t stand in Michigan’s approach till I see that workforce journey up with my very own eyes.
