With his eyes on 2028, Gavin Newsom is homing in on the shifting attitudes towards President Trump’s immigration crackdown, looking to score points against his longtime adversary while boosting his own prospective presidential candidacy.
Indeed, despite the locus of ICE efforts shifting from California to Minnesota, Newsom believes he can harness the growing anger following the tragic killing of two Americans in Minneapolis to raise his national profile.
Further, it’s unknown whether Trump’s recent moves to soften his position vis-à-vis ICE operations will be enough to address the growing vulnerability this has become for the president.
To that end, on Tuesday, the California governor ordered the state’s law enforcement agencies to “exercise their full authority in investigating possible crimes involving federal agents.”
At the same time, the state senate pushed through a bill that would give residents more ability to sue federal agents.
Another bill working its way through the state house would also mandate that the “attorney general investigate any shootings involving federal immigration officers.”
Notably, while much of the focus has been on Minnesota following the deaths of two Americans, California has also seen a number of incidents recently.
On New Year’s Eve, an off-duty ICE agent shot and killed a man in Northridge. And just this month, two protestors in Santa Ana were blinded by Homeland Security agents after being shot with “less-lethal” rounds.
The moves by Newsom and state legislatures follows warnings from San Francisco’s DA Brooke Jenkins that her office would seek to hold federal agents responsible for breaking the law, regardless of the immunity White House aide Stephen Miller claims they have.
While national Democrats dig in, content that attitudes towards ICE overreach will bolster their support, Newsom is going on the offensive.
Moreover, Newsom’s seemingly found an opportunity to score political points, motivate his base, and even sway moderates who support closing the border but recoil at ICE agents shooting Americans in the streets.
On X, Newsom responded to a video of Trump saying he feels worse about the shooting of Renee Good “because her parents were Trump fans” by suggesting “something is deeply wrong” with the president.
Attacking Trump from the right, Newsom also highlighted the NRA’s condemnation of suggestions by Trump, FBI Director Kash Patel, and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem that Pretti’s gun possession is to blame.
Despite it bordering on impossible for Newsom to successfully peel off voters to the right – particularly among gun rights groups – his statements underscore how aligned he is with voters in the state and nationally, as well as the growing anger Trump faces from all sides.
Among Californians, nearly three-quarters (72%) disapprove of the job ICE is doing according to PPIC polling conducted even before the two deaths in Minneapolis.
In the wake of the shooting in Minneapolis, the national story resembles that of California.
Trump’s approval on immigration, previously his strongest issue, now sits at 39% approve, while 47% disapprove per Daily Mail polling.
Strikingly, a majority (53%) of Americans, including 39% of Republicans, say the “chaos in Minneapolis” has been a “turning point” for them personally, according to the same poll.
It’s increasingly likely that even handing responsibility to Tom Homan – who promised a drawdown of federal agents in Minneapolis – and putting the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti on leave won’t stem the frustration towards the administration.
Taken together, this data suggests that as immigration becomes an albatross for Trump, Newsom is using it strategically in order to boost his standing.
Likewise, the administration’s bungling of what had been its key issue, Newsom is able to push an anti-Trump message that fires up his base and appeals to the growing number of moderates – and Republicans – turned off by the administration’s tactics.
Longterm, the impact of Trump’s backtracking in Minneapolis remains to be seen.
Should the White House totally recalibrate to focus on deporting violent migrants rather than ordinary people and clamping down on excessive force – as Trump has hinted – it’s possible that the issue loses its potency as a negative for Trump and the GOP.
That being said, there is no denying that the White House is keenly aware of the political blowback they face from ICE-related incidents.
Just weeks after Trump’s inauguration, his approval on the issue was 56% per Morning Consult.
By mid-January, following crackdowns in multiple cities – including Los Angeles – that had fallen to 47% according to the same poll.
What should worry Republicans is that Democrats – Newsom in particular – are having no problems finding avenues of attack when it comes to immigration enforcement.
Put another way, while there was strong support for shutting the border and deporting violent migrants, images of federal agents killing or violently handling American citizens and innocent migrants are currently dominating the story.
Equally alarming for Trump is that the administration’s communication mishaps have allowed Democrats like Newsom to raise their profile in such a way that endears them to the base as well as moderates concerned with ever-rising violence in American streets.
Ultimately, when Donald Trump focused on the broken border and flood of violent migrants allowed by the former Biden administration, that was both instrumental in Trump’s win, as well as good politics.
Yet, like many things, when it goes too far, opponents are able to turn that strength into a weakness, and that is what Newsom is now doing.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
