On Aug. 8, because the White Home hosted the trilateral signing of a peace agreement between Armenia, Azerbaijan and america, I spoke to a gaggle of Armenian highschool college students from Los Angeles. We paused to observe the information convention on a laptop computer within the nook of our crowded room. Their faces — curious, cautious and skeptical — mirrored a sentiment throughout the Armenian diaspora: hope tempered by doubt, pleasure shadowed by distrust.
This battle’s roots run deep. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal conflict over a area inside Azerbaijan’s borders however claimed by each nations. Azerbaijanis name it Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenians name it Artsakh. A ceasefire held for years however left core disputes unresolved — over territory, governance and the precise of self-determination for the area’s Armenian inhabitants.
Struggle erupted once more in 2020. Backed by Turkey and armed with superior weapons, Azerbaijan gained management of a lot of the disputed territory. The Trump administration did nothing to meaningfully intervene. For Armenians, it was a devastating loss — of land, safety, belief and cultural heritage. For Azerbaijan, it was a political and navy victory that shifted the stability of energy.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan launched a blockade of the Lachin hall — the one highway linking Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh to Armenia — tightening its grip on a area already reeling from conflict. For the following 10 months, gasoline, electrical energy, web, meals and drugs had been lower off to 120,000 Armenians, a lot of them youngsters and aged. Households rationed bread. Surgical procedures had been postponed. Colleges closed.
I visited the area throughout this time and stood on the Armenian finish of the hall, the place a silent convoy of vans stretched out of sight up the highway — every loaded with meals, drugs and primary provides, every driver understanding they may by no means be allowed to ship them. The air was heavy with frustration and helplessness. Within the restricted protection of the siege, the remoted Armenians spoke in hushed tones, their faces drawn from months of concern and deprivation. The Worldwide Court docket of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to reopen the hall, however Baku ignored it.
I took pleasure when President Biden formally acknowledged the Armenian genocide — an ethical milestone many years overdue. However his administration didn’t punish Azerbaijan throughout the blockade, and it failed to forestall what got here subsequent: Azerbaijan’s full-scale navy assault on Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh in September 2023. The assault lasted simply 24 hours however pressured greater than 100,000 ethnic Armenians — just about your complete inhabitants of the area — to flee their properties. Centuries-old communities had been emptied virtually in a single day, and households left behind properties, companies and locations of worship, unsure if they’d ever return.
I’ve felt conflicted watching the Trump administration’s peace-making efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On one hand, I really like seeing my nation, america, stand with Armenia and prioritize Armenian points on the world stage. On the opposite, this second feels hole. And to me, this displays a deeper drawback: U.S. coverage towards the South Caucasus has lengthy lacked consistency, accountability and the desire to confront aggressors, irrespective of which social gathering is in energy. And in Washington, Armenians have few pals and weak illustration.
This settlement — like a lot of U.S. international coverage within the present administration — is unmistakably transactional. Armenia beneficial properties U.S. safety assurances and cooperation on synthetic intelligence, together with assist for an rising AI hub, which is supposed to anchor its Western trajectory. Azerbaijan walks away with de facto immunity as a substitute of being held accountable for its actions in opposition to the Armenians of Artsakh, in addition to arms gross sales and a transit hall to Turkey. The USA will get a geopolitical trophy: Trump’s identify on the hall to Turkey, leverage within the area and an obvious diplomatic “win” to market at dwelling.
However this deal is much from full. It omits the precise of return for displaced Armenians to Artsakh, ignores the destruction of Armenians’ cities, properties and companies, makes no dedication to protect Artsakh’s cultural heritage and says nothing about prisoners of conflict. For a lot of within the Armenian diaspora, these are obvious and unacceptable omissions.
On paper, the newly named Trump Route for Worldwide Peace and Prosperity, the hyperlink from Azerbaijan to Turkey, is billed as a impartial, cooperative path to be administered by the U.S. In actuality, it raises severe questions on Armenia’s sovereignty. The hall will run via Armenia’s southern Syunik province — its solely direct land hyperlink to Iran — and will weaken Yerevan’s means to totally management its personal borders, regulate commerce and guarantee unimpeded entry to an important southern lifeline.
At greatest, the Aug. 8 settlement affords a slim hope for an actual decision of the area’s conflicts. If applied absolutely, it might assist construct a extra steady and affluent Armenia for future generations. The problem is in making certain this deal yields a U.S. funding in reconstruction, accountability and lasting safety, one thing greater than a photograph op.
And even incomplete, flawed agreements can create openings. Armenia’s pivot West, which the deal underlines, carries threat, nevertheless it additionally affords the potential for stronger safety partnerships, financial renewal and cultural preservation, if these advantages attain the individuals who have endured conflict and blockade, not simply the leaders who signed the papers. In recent times, Armenia has seen a shocking financial increase, pushed by tech funding, tourism and a wave of returning diaspora expertise. This fragile momentum could possibly be strengthened or squandered relying on what comes subsequent.
I respect President Trump for pursuing peace agreements — leaders in every single place ought to make peace their highest precedence. The Armenian American college students I met on Aug. 8, who carry the inherited ache of their mother and father and grandparents, deserve greater than symbolic gestures or transactional offers. They deserve justice and the liberty to check a greater future for his or her ancestors’ homeland. Finally, that’s the hope all of us share.
Jirair Ratevosian served as senior coverage advisor for the State Division within the Biden administration.
