Contained in the Huge Ten Showdown That Might Make or Break CFP Goals

Before Illinois and Indiana take the field on Saturday night for the most anticipated Big Ten matchup of this young season — a game that carries College Football Playoff implications — it’s worth revisiting a chilly fall morning more than a decade ago that was bathed in far less pomp and circumstance, devoid of any link to national relevance or repute.

On Oct. 27, 2012, the Hoosiers limped across their western border and into Illinois having lost five consecutive games. Three of those defeats came against Ball State, Northwestern and Navy, and even the season-opening win over FCS-level Indiana State had been a battle, with Indiana ultimately prevailing by a touchdown. For second-year head coach Kevin Wilson, who later served as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and the head coach at Tulsa, the campaign would finish with a desultory 4-8 record and a 2-6 mark in the conference. 

Things were arguably even worse at Illinois under first-year head coach Tim Beckman, who took over after three impressive seasons at Toledo. The Illini were handed a humiliating 28-point home defeat to Louisiana Tech the month prior and dropped their next three Big Ten games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan by 90 combined points. They would go on to lose to Indiana, 31-17, and fail to beat a single league opponent all season, with seven of their eight conference losses reflecting double-digit margins on the scoreboard. 

My, how things have changed. 

When the ball is kicked this weekend at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana, where the Hoosiers have won their last 11 games, the teams involved should be viewed as nearing the cusp of college football’s upper echelon thanks to an expanded playoff for which they are unquestionably in the mix. 

Indiana, now in its second season under transformative head coach Curt Cignetti, formerly of James Madison, is fresh off its largest shutout victory (73-0 over Indiana State) since 1901 and has the second-best point differential in the country at plus-133. Illinois, now thriving under charismatic program builder Bret Bielema, is still bathed in the afterglow of its first 10-win season since 2001, which, until now, was also the last time the Illini spent back-to-back weeks ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. 

Those in attendance for Saturday’s sold-out clash between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana will be treated to the first ranked matchup between the two schools in 75 years. 

“I was shocked at that,” Bielema said.

Fans might also be shocked to learn just how influential this game really is when it comes to the overall CFP landscape, even though the season is but a few weeks old. It’s growing increasingly clear that the 2025 Big Ten hierarchy includes an aristocratic triumvirate at the top in No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon — each of whom is feeling more and more like a shoo-in for the 12-team field given the early wobbles for Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida — followed by an expanding pack of challengers behind them.

The Big Ten’s secondary group, spearheaded by Illinois and Indiana, which is seeking its second straight playoff appearance, includes the likes of No. 21 Michigan, No. 25 USC, Nebraska and even Washington, with all but the Wolverines maintaining unblemished records entering Week 4.

And while it’s certainly possible for a single league to send five teams to the playoff in a given year, which is something the SEC loudly campaigned for across much of last season, trying desperately to prop up the résumés of three-loss programs Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Missouri at the expense of Indiana and SMU, the safest prognostication for the Big Ten in 2025 still includes four total bids — an automatic berth bestowed upon the league’s champion, plus three at-large spots. That’s the most realistic scenario based on an opening month when eight SEC teams and two ACC schools are ranked among the top 15 of the latest AP Poll, though inter-conference cannibalism is certainly coming.

“Last year’s history,” Cignetti said. “I don’t compare [this year] to final yr. I am completely centered on the right here and now and this workforce. So I feel we made good progress final week, and now we have to have an excellent week of prep so we are able to play our greatest Saturday night time. And I do not look down the highway at who we play.”

However everybody else round faculty soccer can, and can, peek at who Indiana and Illinois are dealing with within the coming weeks because the playoff race takes form, and that’s the place the potential issues reside. The Illini have been graced with a Huge Ten schedule that doesn’t embrace Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa or Nebraska. They’re slated to face No. 1 Ohio State at residence on Oct. 11, which is as tough a recreation as anybody within the convention can have, however none of Illinois’ opponents from that time ahead are ranked within the AP Ballot. The one Huge Ten groups with simpler remaining schedules, in response to ESPN, are Nebraska, Maryland and Indiana. 

Which brings us to the Hoosiers, who’re as soon as once more polarizing due to a tissue paper-esque non-conference schedule. Cignetti’s workforce pounded Previous Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State by a mixed margin of 156-23 and was by no means examined past the primary quarter of its first recreation. 

Indiana will journey for tough highway video games in opposition to Oregon and Penn State — two groups it didn’t play en path to reaching the playoff final season — however will keep away from Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Washington and Nebraska. And in contrast to Illinois, which might no less than declare a good non-conference highway win over Duke, the Hoosiers have performed the third-easiest schedule in faculty soccer so far, in response to Professional Soccer Focus, forward of solely UNLV and UCF. 

“Look,” Cignetti stated, “final yr, earlier than the season began, we have been enjoying favourite in three video games. We have been picked seventeenth out of 18 groups [in the preseason conference poll]. So each Huge Ten recreation that we went into, we have been an underdog earlier than the season began, perhaps except for Purdue. So final yr’s within the books. It is a new yr. This can be a good soccer workforce.”

Few individuals will quibble with Cignetti over that assertion, which is why Indiana is favored by 5.5 factors coming into Saturday’s recreation regardless of touchdown 10 spots decrease than Illinois within the newest ballot. The Hoosiers rank third nationally in complete offense (591.7 yards per recreation), third in speeding (307.7 yards per recreation) and have discovered a switch quarterback in former Cal standout Fernando Mendoza, who’s considered one of solely three gamers within the nation with 9 or extra landing passes and 0 interceptions. Indiana additionally ranks among the many prime 10 nationally in each complete protection (220.7 yards per recreation) and scoring protection (7.7 factors per recreation) underneath second-year coordinator Bryant Haines.

Practically all the identical superlatives will be connected to the Illini, who’ve reached their highest nationwide rating since Dick Butkus’ senior season in 1964. Their offense, overseen by stellar quarterback Luke Altmyer, has scored extra factors than any Illinois workforce in historical past by the primary three video games (135) and is considered one of solely 4 models from the Energy 4 conferences with no turnover, putting Illinois alongside Alabama, Houston and Rutgers in that class. The protection, coordinated by Aaron Henry, has but to permit a speeding landing whereas additionally rating tied for ninth nationally and tied for second within the Huge Ten in sacks with 10. 

“You’ve obtained to seek out gamers that suit your system,” Bielema stated, “and I feel Indiana is a living proof. They’ve finished a very, actually good job. Clearly, [Cignetti] introduced guys with him from JMU, however now you’ve seen the addition of another guys which have are available in. I might say that we most likely compete in opposition to Indiana in highschool recruiting and portal home windows as a lot as anyone else within the Huge Ten, simply the type of methods we each run and the gamers that I feel we search for. That’s distinctive.”

And but, the Hoosiers will virtually definitely be underdogs after they journey to Oregon and Penn State for high-profile matchups later this season, identical to the Illini will probably be underdogs after they host Ohio State in what might be this system’s solely different marquee recreation between now and early December when the playoff bracket is revealed. 

So despite the fact that Bielema and Cignetti are competing for gamers, and despite the fact that their groups will compete in entrance of a nationally televised viewers on Saturday night time, in a recreation with main School Soccer Playoff ramifications for either side, they’re nonetheless clawing for respect in an expanded Huge Ten. 

To the victor go the all-important, résumé-boosting spoils.

Michael Cohen covers faculty soccer and faculty basketball for FOX Sports activities. Observe him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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