Donald Trump’s first full yr again within the White Home has introduced with it extra existential questions for America’s European allies than his whole first time period. Trump has made repeated claims that the true risk to European safety isn’t Russia’s Vladimir Putin however Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Trump’s newest fixation is seizing Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally.
Europeans have bent over backward to accommodate an unpredictable White Home and preserve Trump on aspect by agreeing to dramatic will increase of their nationwide protection budgets whereas rigorously courting of the U.S. president. Previously yr, they’ve reached offers the place European governments would successfully pay america to maintain weapons flowing to Ukraine and commit their very own troops to safe Kyiv’s sovereignty rather than any U.S. ensures.
Donald Trump’s first full yr again within the White Home has introduced with it extra existential questions for America’s European allies than his whole first time period. Trump has made repeated claims that the true risk to European safety isn’t Russia’s Vladimir Putin however Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Trump’s newest fixation is seizing Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally.
Europeans have bent over backward to accommodate an unpredictable White Home and preserve Trump on aspect by agreeing to dramatic will increase of their nationwide protection budgets whereas rigorously courting of the U.S. president. Previously yr, they’ve reached offers the place European governments would successfully pay america to maintain weapons flowing to Ukraine and commit their very own troops to safe Kyiv’s sovereignty rather than any U.S. ensures.
Over the previous fortnight, nonetheless, these calculations have modified. Trump, emboldened by his profitable seize of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, seems decided to show his persistent geopolitical fantasies into actuality—whether or not meaning invading Greenland or promoting out Ukraine.
Probably the most public shift in European pondering got here this week, when Andrius Kubilius, the European Union’s protection commissioner, publicly floated the thought of a European Safety Council, comprising 10-12 European nations that might command a mixed power of as much as 100,000 standing troops, headed by the European Fee.
The thought of a European standing power is nothing new. Europeans have debated the thought of one thing resembling an EU military for years, with various outcomes. Whereas there are procedures in place that enable the EU to deploy NATO property, the thought of a full EU command has at all times been tough to agree on among the many EU member states. Whereas most EU states are NATO members, some, corresponding to Eire and Malta, are formally impartial.
“[Then-German Chancellor] Angela Merkel proposed the thought of a European Safety Council again in 2015,” a former NATO official, talking on the situation of anonymity, instructed me this week. “The issue was, whereas greater nations like France (and beforehand the U.Ok.) beloved the thought, small and medium nations didn’t like the thought of the EU’s ‘massive boys’ having extra say over their nationwide safety and replicating what already existed by way of NATO.”
The previous official famous that plenty of frontier states that shared borders with Russia have been uncomfortable with an initiative that will give Germany a serious say over their means to guard themselves from Kremlin aggression, given Germany’s dependence on the time on low cost Russian gasoline.
European nations have additionally beforehand balked on the thought of the European Fee having a number one position in any sort of command construction. Any official position for the fee instantly raises the query about how the physique, which isn’t straight elected by voters however as an alternative has commissioners appointed by member states and the European Parliament, can signify the entire EU’s 27 member states on issues of safety and protection, given the huge vary of views contained in the bloc itself. For instance, even among the many Russia hawks, Poland is unwilling to ship peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, whereas France has already dedicated to doing so within the occasion of a peace deal. That image will get even murkier whenever you have a look at nations friendlier to Russia, corresponding to Hungary and Slovakia.
However 2026 has already altered the calculations. “There’s a window during which this might truly occur,” a European safety supply mentioned. In contrast to earlier efforts, “this wouldn’t be a bespoke EU construction, as Kubilius has already mentioned it could embrace the U.Ok.,” which, given it is likely one of the continent’s solely two impartial nuclear powers, can be “important for a European-led Safety Council to work.”
Sources round Kubilius indicated that whereas the feedback don’t signify an official change in EU coverage, it’s broadly accepted in Brussels that pondering on European safety—together with the EU’s position in any future constructions—wants to alter and that EU establishments could must take a again seat so as to convey events on board.
Previously few weeks, there was loads of proof that European nations—together with NATO members—are more and more keen to place themselves in direct opposition to the Trump administration.
The leaders of six European nations—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain—put their names to a joint assertion with Denmark, saying that “Greenland belongs to its individuals, and solely Denmark and Greenland can determine on issues regarding their relations.”
In odd instances, this may be a banal assertion. But it surely comes after repeated threats of invasion of the Danish territory from the White Home, and these identical nations, together with different NATO members, have additionally despatched troops to Greenland as a part of a reconnaissance mission.
Whereas the official motive for the mission is, in response to Germany, “to discover choices for guaranteeing safety in mild of Russian and Chinese language threats within the Arctic,” the true viewers is clearly in Washington.
Europe’s comforting delusions—that Putin isn’t that nice a risk, that the Individuals will at all times be there—have been starkly uncovered as false. Pressing work is required to supply a reputable European various to safety by way of a U.S.-led NATO.
But the inflexible constructions of the EU can most likely not accommodate the pliability and membership required. A European Safety Council would seemingly require one thing utterly new, one thing that isn’t sure by any current treaty and doesn’t construct on current constructions, such because the Berlin Plus settlement between the EU and NATO, that also contain america and would supply feet-draggers with vetoes. Buildings that convey collectively like-minded nations with out treaties exist already—the G-7 and the European Political Group, to call two. These may present a superb start line for any new European safety construction primarily based on mutual political consent.
It might probably at instances appear surreal to see proposals corresponding to these written down on paper. However in 2026, Trump has turned america from an already unpredictable ally to a possible hostile state that might threaten the way forward for NATO. Europe merely doesn’t have the time to navigate the difficult political constructions of outdated establishments that operated on assumptions that now not apply. As a senior Europe safety supply put it, when requested about Kubilius’s feedback: “We dwell in a brand new actuality. We have to change our mentality, too.”
