Geopolitical energy has lengthy been linked with literal energy. Britain’s standing because the world’s main coal producer fueled not simply the Industrial Revolution domestically however gave it monumental international affect.
For the US, the important thing was oil and fuel. Its oil giants proved formidable geoeconomic gamers, whether or not working with U.S. pleasant regimes throughout the Chilly Battle or offering liquefied pure fuel to Europe because it struggles with Russia right now. In flip, they’ve formed U.S. coverage, together with the nation’s decades-long entanglement within the Center East.
Now, some see China as a brand new kind of power energy—an electrostate. It isn’t solely putting in renewable power quicker than any nation on the earth, however it is usually exporting the applied sciences for producing renewable power on an enormous scale, in keeping with power suppose tank Ember. In 2025, the worth of those exports hit $20 billion—a brand new report. What does this imply in sensible phrases? Power-hungry neighbors in Southeast Asia present an attention-grabbing glimpse.
Like most growing nations, almost all member states of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are unwilling to embrace an power transition until they see the prospect for revenue in it. From companions, they need inexperienced power that’s low-cost, and if potential, they need to see some home manufacturing of products comparable to photo voltaic panels. Alongside this, fossil fuels will persist, as long as they signify a great enterprise proposition. As they make inroads in ASEAN, renewables are usually not changing fossil fuels however being layered on high, a lot as in China.
The US and its, in the intervening time, allies in Asia and Europe nonetheless have a substantial function within the area’s power sector—however are confined to grease and fuel. Equally, ASEAN’s personal governments have highly effective home fossil corporations, comparable to Petronas in Malaysia, that they will leverage. Renewable power, nevertheless, is closely dominated by China.
China has been the single-most vital investor in ASEAN’s energy sector. From 2015 to 2024, China accounted for 31.9 % of all overseas direct funding within the technology and transmission of electrical energy and fuel (excluding pipelines), in keeping with information offered by ASEAN. Intra-ASEAN FDI gives a shade extra, however a lot of this comes from the worldwide monetary entrepôt of Singapore. Japan, South Korea, and to a lesser extent Europe have performed noticeable roles, too. In the meantime, the US appears to have nearly stop the sphere—even earlier than the onset of President Donald Trump’s second time period.
Whereas extra detailed breakdowns are usually not simply accessible, quite a lot of datasets recommend that Chinese language dominance in power is just set to develop.
Take, for instance, photo voltaic panels, the place China’s management is now a truism. Between 2010 and 2024, China produced about three-quarters of photo voltaic modules, in accordance to Ember.
The dominance seems to be set to proceed. The tariff struggle with the US has prompted a relocation of some manufacturing to ASEAN, most notably Malaysia and Vietnam. Nonetheless, Chinese language corporations have continued to play a central function, both controlling the factories or supplying them—testified to by the more and more monumental tariffs Washington is slapping on them.
In the meantime, former U.S. President Joe Biden’s makes an attempt to ramp up home photo voltaic panel manufacturing by aping China’s mixture of tariffs and subsidies considerably boosted home manufacturing. However in 2023, U.S. panels had been nonetheless on common 44 % dearer than Chinese language ones. It’s exhausting to think about them discovering a market in Southeast Asia.
China’s cutting-edge expertise is aided by sheer scale, one thing particularly clear in hydropower. Since 2014, round half of the hydropower that has come on-line in Southeast Asia has had Chinese language corporations concerned within the development, based mostly on information culled from numerous sources, together with the Stimson’s Heart Mekong Infrastructure Tracker, authorities paperwork, and information studies.
A lot of this Chinese language-led development is concentrated in Laos, which has marketed itself as “ASEAN’s battery.” Rising renewables penetration additionally will increase the necessity for dependable backup for cloudless or windless days.
A cable connecting Singapore to Laos through Thailand and Malaysia is already channeling electrical energy. That is extensively seen as a pathfinder venture for a wider regional grid—one that will put Chinese language-built and -funded hydropower at its core. Chinese language-controlled overflows from the higher Mekong through its personal huge hydropower initiatives add one other and blunter layer of affect over such an power system.
China additionally dominates in some types of fossil fuels. Chinese language corporations are the most important stakeholders in some 29 % of all coal-fired energy crops which have come on-line in ASEAN since 2014, based mostly on evaluation of information compiled by World Power Monitor. With Western traders quitting coal en masse, it’s little marvel that China will seemingly proceed to play a significant function for a while. Its personal 2021 promise to cease funding abroad coal-fired energy crops appears to imply little on the bottom.
It is just in oil and fuel that the US and its allies nonetheless play a noticeable function. Of Southeast Asia’s 10 largest fuel fields, two are operated by the U.S. firm Hess in partnership with Petronas, one by Britain’s BP, one by South Korea’s Posco, 4 by Thailand’s PTTEP, one by the United Arab Emirates’ Mubadala, and one by Indonesia’s Pertamina, in keeping with info compiled by Offshore Know-how. Of the ten largest oil fields, three are operated by Shell and 6 by home corporations, and one is cut up 50-50 between Shell and Brunei. U.S. corporations comparable to ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips act as half house owners in a few of these fields.
One different main energy supply presents itself: nuclear. Lengthy a taboo subject in a area that declared itself nuclear-weapon free in 1997, which has at instances shaded into skepticism about nuclear energy extra broadly. Nonetheless, rising stress to supply clear power signifies that now Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and even Cambodia are quietly contemplating the likelihood.
Right here once more the US and its allies discover themselves far behind the curve. There are 65 nuclear reactors presently being constructed, in keeping with information from the World Nuclear Affiliation. The actual energy participant is Russia, which is presently constructing seven new reactors domestically and one other 19 overseas in Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, and Turkey. China might additionally bounce in. It’s already constructing one other reactor in Pakistan. Much more importantly, it’s establishing 33 new ones at dwelling—organising a powerful base to then take abroad.
Against this, the US is presently constructing zero new reactors. Two are being inbuilt the UK by French corporations. And South Korea is constructing three domestically—and just lately oversaw the development of 4 reactors within the UAE. Once more, a key future expertise appears to be dominated by rivals.
None of this seems to be set to vary. Below Biden, the US, the European Union, and Japan pushed ahead Simply Power Transition Partnerships with Indonesia and Vietnam. These proposed to have the US and its allies sponsor decarbonization in these nations. Trump, nevertheless, swiftly pulled out.
Even earlier than that, analysts expressed nice skepticism in regards to the credibility of those partnerships. Heroic assumptions that scrappily pulled collectively items of public funding might “crowd in” monumental personal funding strained credibility and left Indonesian and Vietnamese ministers complaining.
Japan has tried to step up amid this crumbling of U.S. efforts, however its personal efforts additionally lack credibility. Multiple-third of the initiatives supported by the Japan-led Asia Zero Emission Neighborhood are fossil fuel-related in some capability or different. And whereas 54 are renewable, it appears seemingly that the realities of provide chains imply that many of those will find yourself involving Chinese language expertise or knowhow in some capability.
Below present dynamics, China’s significance as an power associate will steadily enhance for the area. Within the oil and fuel sector, the US and its allies are for the second the overseas companions of alternative. However the allies are doing many of the heavy lifting—and should quickly discover themselves much less congenial to U.S. pursuits as Trump sows chaos. Even when the relationships get well in the long term, the sector seems to be set to slowly decline. Against this, China appears well-positioned to make itself the associate of option to construct an power system mannequin just like its personal—coal as baseload, layered with renewables and maybe nuclear down the road.
The consequence could also be dependencies which might be exhausting to shake. As Southeast Asia continues to develop, finance, experience, and expertise will circulate steadily from China—leaving it taking part in a central function within the area’s power programs. Within the twentieth century, nationalizations of oil and fuel sources let Southeast Asian nations seize management of the levers from former colonial powers. Below a brand new power system the place the technological elements weigh greater than geographical ones, such feats might be exhausting to duplicate.
