When the most recent Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal was introduced on Oct. 9, Israeli negotiator Alon Nitzan celebrated by hugging his interlocutor, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. That picture stood in sharp distinction to the occasions of 1 month prior, when Israel bombed a central Doha neighborhood and Al Thani subsequently denounced Tel Aviv’s “state terrorism.” Some observers then questioned whether or not the Trump administration’s equivocal response to Israel’s strike and the disaster of confidence it precipitated meant that the Gulf states would now pivot away from the USA.
Cool heads, nevertheless, prevailed. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states didn’t substitute the U.S. safety umbrella. As a substitute, the GCC states and the USA collaborated carefully on the most recent Gaza cease-fire. Whereas, in a transparent break from earlier coverage, the Trump administration proclaimed that it could think about any future assault on Qatar to represent a direct menace to the USA. It could now be about to provide Saudi Arabia the identical assure.
When the most recent Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal was introduced on Oct. 9, Israeli negotiator Alon Nitzan celebrated by hugging his interlocutor, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. That picture stood in sharp distinction to the occasions of 1 month prior, when Israel bombed a central Doha neighborhood and Al Thani subsequently denounced Tel Aviv’s “state terrorism.” Some observers then questioned whether or not the Trump administration’s equivocal response to Israel’s strike and the disaster of confidence it precipitated meant that the Gulf states would now pivot away from the USA.
Cool heads, nevertheless, prevailed. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states didn’t substitute the U.S. safety umbrella. As a substitute, the GCC states and the USA collaborated carefully on the most recent Gaza cease-fire. Whereas, in a transparent break from earlier coverage, the Trump administration proclaimed that it could think about any future assault on Qatar to represent a direct menace to the USA. It could now be about to provide Saudi Arabia the identical assure.
There may be broader inference right here. Regardless of the GCC’s latest nervousness, it is not going to change its geopolitical orientation. Within the final two years, Israel has hobbled Iran and its allies, opening the area to reshape the area’s political panorama. However by leaning too closely on navy pressure on the expense of a “day after,” Israel has left a vacuum that the Gulf states have been fast to fill.
No matter whether or not the Israel-Hamas battle is over or not, for this reason the GCC states, not Israel, are greatest poised to reshape the area. However whether or not they, or the area, can finally reap the advantages stays to be seen.
All through the battle, the Gulf states—notably the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—remained dogged by claims that they have been pleased to see Iran’s wings clipped and even secretly backed Israel’s expanded marketing campaign, no matter their public proclamations.
That is an oversimplification. The GCC has lengthy seen Iran as a rival. However Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to a Chinese language-mediated normalization deal in 2023. After getting slowed down preventing the Houthis in Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pivoted away from navy adventurism and centered on inner state-building. Different Gulf states adopted; most have their very own model of Saudi’s Imaginative and prescient 2030, a long-term plan to finish the nation’s overreliance on oil. This imaginative and prescient is based on quiet, which is why Saudi Arabia stopped aggressively confronting Iran and its allies and opted for detente as a substitute.
But whereas eradicating themselves from Iran’s crosshairs, Gulf leaders nonetheless watched Iran’s rising regional clout with unease. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in flip, positioned his nation as a regional enforcer that would include the so-called Axis of Resistance and uphold the regional established order. Whereas Israel normalized relations with the UAE and was apparently poised to the identical with Saudi Arabia, Israel labored with Qatar to fund a cash-strapped Hamas and hold the regime in Gaza afloat.
Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel ended this dynamic. It brought on many Israelis to see their grand strategic desire for calm as naive and harmful. Israel then practiced aggressive regional revisionism, which is strictly what it had lengthy condemned Iran for. The Gulf states, nevertheless, sought the precise reverse: ending the battle as rapidly as attainable. For a while, they minimized the battle’s affect on their growth agendas; whereas the Houthis escalated their marketing campaign in opposition to Israel, they shunned concentrating on the UAE or Saudi Arabia.
That lasted till this 12 months, which has been tumultuous for the GCC states. They noticed their affect attain unprecedented heights in Could, once they showered a visiting U.S. President Donald Trump with presents. In June and September, although, the Gulf’s worst nightmare got here true when Qatar acquired the unwelcome distinction of being bombed by each Iran and Israel.
Belatedly, the Trump administration realized that enabling or downplaying an Israeli assault on a rustic that former U.S. President Joe Biden deemed a significant non-NATO ally undermined the USA’ status and worth as a great-power safety guarantor. In response, Trump compelled Netanyahu to make a groveling apology to the Qatari emir. He additionally exerted what a White Home insider described as “most stress,” which compelled Israel to “undergo peace.”
However the Israeli strike on Doha had one other unintended consequence. It fed an rising sense of regional insecurity and a feeling that the USA was a paper tiger or would readily throw the Gulf states underneath the bus to advance Israel’s pursuits.
To mitigate this notion, Washington gave Doha a written and public assure that it could see any future assault on Qatar as “a menace” to the USA’ “peace and safety.” That was what each Gulf chief needed—it was the closest that any GCC state had ever gotten to emulating NATO’s Article 5 and being unambiguously coated by the USA’ safety umbrella. America had beforehand held again and dangled a proper safety assure as a reward that may incentivize and observe additional regional normalization with Israel.
Briefly, Israel’s strike on Doha was a disastrous personal aim. It not solely didn’t kill its targets, nevertheless it additionally empowered Qatar to ask for and get an unprecedented U.S. concession.
This is the reason, regardless of Trump’s dedication to develop the Abraham Accords, the USA’ response to the Doha strike makes this consequence much less doubtless. Washington beforehand rewarded the UAE and Bahrain for becoming a member of the Abraham Accords however stopped in need of providing them the concessions that Qatar obtained. It’s little surprise, then, that Saudi Arabia is now reportedly pushing to get the identical deal.
The Doha strike and its political blowback additionally illustrate why Israel is poorly positioned to create what Netanyahu has repeatedly referred to as a “new Center East” from the ashes of the previous regional order.
Over the past two years, Netanyahu’s insurance policies have proved more practical at destroying than creating. Israel hobbled Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, and it contributed to the Assad regime’s collapse in Syria. However it didn’t convert navy successes into political positive aspects in any of these circumstances. As a substitute, it appears decided to reside by the sword indefinitely; Israel nonetheless occupies elements of Lebanon and is extending its attain into Syria, whereas rebuffing diplomatic overtures from the brand new regime. Netanyahu steadfastly refused to pause the battle in Gaza, till Trump compelled his hand. Netanyahu’s “new Center East,” then, seems quite a bit like the current. Former Israeli Overseas Minister Abba Eban as soon as claimed that the Palestinians “by no means miss a possibility to overlook a possibility.” For the previous two years, although, this rings more true for Israel.
In contrast, the Gulf states aptly exploited the facility vacuums that Israel has created. They invested $14 billion to rebuild Syria in 2025 and pledged greater than $150 million for Lebanon in 2024. This isn’t nearly funding: The GCC states are utilizing their monetary clout to pry each nations away from Iran’s geopolitical orbit. This is the reason Gulf lobbying satisfied Trump to drop the crippling U.S. sanctions in opposition to Syria. Equally, they’ve conditioned support for Lebanon on Hezbollah disarming. In each Syria and Lebanon, their overlapping pursuits have meant that the GCC states have displayed a uncommon present of unity to date.
If the latest Israel-Hamas cease-fire holds, the Gulf states are poised to select up the items in Gaza. The peace plan has Gulf fingerprints throughout it and was publicly backed by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, illustrating that they maintain their potential to form Trump’s views and U.S. coverage.
Indubitably, creating a brand new “day after” in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria is a tall order. Saudi Arabia’s botched intervention in Yemen exemplifies the GCC states’ poor document in rolling again Iran. They might be good at shopping for affect however have virtually no expertise in overseas nation-building and post-conflict reconstruction. It’s also a high-risk technique that can require the Gulf states to reveal themselves greater than ever earlier than.
However the greatest hurdle is Israel’s continued regional revisionism. The Gulf states’ inner state-building applications, reminiscent of Imaginative and prescient 2030, are predicated on zero issues with their neighbors. Equally, the GCC states’ use of political and financial leverage to create a “day after” in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria requires relative regional quiet. No quantity of reconstruction or political rehabilitation can insulate from an Israeli determination to escalate, which might undo every thing with the literal contact of a button. Alongside the Doha strike, for this reason the GCC states more and more see Israel—with its qualitative navy edge and great-power backing—as extra of a critical menace to regional stability than Iran ever was.
The Gulf states should make use of their latest benefit as Trump whisperers to persuade the USA to rein in Israel. The rising U.S. stress on Israel to not violate the most recent Gaza cease-fire or annex the West Financial institution are tentative however encouraging indicators that Washington is coming round to the Gulf’s mind-set. Certainly, given Trump’s oft-stated want to disengage from the Center East and eschew nation-building, it’s in the USA’ pursuits to encourage the Gulf states’ rising grand technique. Equally, the Trump administration’s latest concessions to Qatar have rendered additional Gulf-Israel normalization much less doubtless.
All this implies that the USA ought to focus much less on increasing the Abraham Accords and extra on supporting tacit cooperation and deconfliction between the Gulf states and Israel. This is able to serve to stop an Iranian resurgence and discourage Israel from destroying what the GCC states try to create.
The truth that Israel’s cupboard just lately voted to rename the latest two-year battle to the “battle of revival” solely reinforces the region-remaking undertones to Israel’s new grand technique. However it’s the Gulf states which can be within the driver’s seat to create a “new Center East.” Whether or not that affect endures is determined by whether or not the Gulf states can rise to problem of regional rebuilding and if they’ll use their ties to a very supportive U.S. administration to insulate any “day after” from Israel’s damaging tendencies.
