Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Scenario Report, and a really pleased birthday to our good, infallible, and enjoyable editor, Jenn Williams, who lets us be ourselves whereas additionally repeatedly saving us from ourselves. Be at liberty to electronic mail her canine toy suggestions; your favourite episodes of RuPaul’s Drag Race; and naturally, reward on your SitRep authors.
Right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: the talk continues over the success of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear services, Europe begins the exhausting a part of boosting protection spending, and the talk over U.S. battle powers intensifies.
Former U.S. President George W. Bush infamously gave a speech in 2003 in entrance of a “Mission Completed” banner on an plane provider, declaring an finish to main fight operations in Iraq—prematurely implying that the U.S. battle within the nation was over. Is President Donald Trump now in peril of repeating historical past with Iran’s nuclear program?
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. strikes “obliterated” Iran’s key nuclear websites, contending the mission was a “LEGENDARY” success. However a leaked preliminary intelligence evaluation means that the operation set Iran’s nuclear program again by just some months.
The Trump administration has launched an aggressive marketing campaign to manage the narrative surrounding the impression of the U.S. strikes within the wake of the leak, raging towards the media within the course of.
In the meantime, the administration has left essential questions unanswered—significantly relating to the placement of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. Satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed vehicles lined up close to the Fordow nuclear facility earlier than the U.S. strikes, and a few consultants have recommended that they may’ve been used to maneuver the uranium. Iran has additionally signaled that it moved the uranium previous to the strikes.
So long as that stockpile exists, consultants warn towards declaring Iran’s nuclear program lifeless. Finally, nuclear consultants proceed to warning towards reaching concrete conclusions in regards to the state of the nuclear program mere days after the U.S. strikes.
What the Trump administration is saying. The administration is accusing the media of creating an excessive amount of of the leaked intelligence report from the Protection Intelligence Company, emphasizing that it’s an early evaluation and a “low confidence report.”
Trump and Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth ripped into the media at a press convention on Wednesday on the NATO summit in The Hague, with the president describing retailers that reported on the leaked intelligence as “scum.”
In a Pentagon press briefing on Thursday that was additionally attended by Joint Chiefs of Workers Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, Hegseth mentioned the leak was politically motivated. Hegseth additionally accused the media of “trying to find scandals” and failing to acknowledge how the U.S. strikes helped lay the groundwork for peace within the area.
But Hegseth dodged questions on whether or not Iran could have moved its stockpile of extremely enriched uranium previous to the U.S. strikes—and personally attacked Fox Information reporter Jennifer Griffin for asking about it. In a imprecise response to a different query on the matter, Hegseth mentioned, “I’m not conscious of any intelligence that I’ve reviewed that claims issues weren’t the place they had been presupposed to be, moved or in any other case.” In what seemed to be a reference to the Fordow nuclear facility, Trump posted to Reality Social on Thursday that “nothing was taken out.”
It’s value noting that Caine—who on Sunday cautioned that it might take time for a full evaluation of the injury from the strikes—wouldn’t say whether or not Iran’s nuclear websites had been “obliterated” when requested throughout Thursday’s briefing.
What consultants are saying. The three Iranian nuclear websites focused by the US “had been definitely broken and could also be inoperable for months to return, however it’s a bridge too far to say Iran’s nuclear program was fully obliterated,” Kelsey Davenport, the director of nonproliferation coverage on the Arms Management Affiliation, advised SitRep. “The Trump administration claimed complete victory far too quickly,” she mentioned. “The menace nonetheless persists.”
Rafael Grossi, the pinnacle of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company—the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog—mentioned on Thursday that Fordow’s centrifuges, that are used to counterpoint uranium, are “now not operational.” However Grossi added that it might be “an excessive amount of” to assert that the current U.S. and Israeli strikes had “worn out” Iran’s nuclear program.
Davenport mentioned that no one goes to know for sure how lengthy Iran’s program was set again “till inspectors can [get] again into these services.”
“We could by no means know the place all the 60 p.c enriched uranium is. A few of it may have been destroyed. A few of it could be buried. A few of it may have been diverted. It’s critically necessary for IAEA inspectors to get again into Iran’s websites and to start out assessing the injury. However even then, there’s an actual danger that materials goes to stay unaccounted for,” Davenport mentioned.
European governments had been additionally reportedly given an early intelligence evaluation suggesting that Iran’s extremely enriched uranium stockpile is essentially intact.
In some ways, asking whether or not Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed is the improper query—as a result of data can’t be bombed away, nor can nuclear ambitions. And there are actually considerations that the US and Israel bombing Iran’s services could have led Iran to conclude that it’s time to weaponize.
Davenport emphasised the necessity for a “diplomatic path ahead” with a view to “forestall a nuclear-armed Iran in the long term,” which would require Washington to set “constant, lifelike aims for what’s doable in an settlement.”
Trump mentioned on Wednesday that his administration was set to carry talks with Iran subsequent week (although the White Home mentioned on Thursday that no assembly has been scheduled “as of now”). But Trump additionally recommended that an settlement over Iran’s nuclear program wasn’t obligatory as a result of the US “blew it up.” On Thursday, Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei mentioned the U.S. bombings “didn’t obtain something.”
What ought to be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
The morning after. As you’ve little doubt seen from our protection this week, NATO and its Secretary-Normal Mark Rutte’s mission of ingratiating themselves to Trump with a promise to dramatically enhance protection spending proved largely profitable. The U.S. president appeared to go away this week’s NATO summit pleased and as dedicated to the alliance as he’s ever been.
That has prompted a way of aid from Sen. Chris Coons, considered one of two Democratic lawmakers (together with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) who traveled to the summit to characterize the U.S. Congress.
“This week’s NATO Summit was additional proof that America First can not imply America Alone,” Coons mentioned in an emailed assertion to SitRep. “I’m assured that the US will retain its long-standing bipartisan dedication to NATO, and I look ahead to persevering with to assist strategic investments within the Alliance that may put together us for the way forward for warfare.”
Trump could also be happy, and everybody else could also be relieved, however for a lot of of NATO’s European members, the exhausting half begins now. Not solely have they got to really spend the cash that they’ve promised, however doing so comes with some dangerous financial trade-offs, as our editor in chief, Ravi Agrawal, wrote in a brand new piece. Agrawal argues that spending extra on tanks and missiles may result in uncomfortable sacrifices on Europe’s social welfare system that would damage European leaders on the polls.
We heard as a lot from Czech Overseas Minister Jan Lipavsky on Wednesday. “This might be a really tough home dialogue in each nation,” he advised SitRep on the finish of the summit, however for European residents, it’s a query of “how we wish to get pleasure from our prosperity … if we aren’t in a position to safe our international locations, our lifestyle.”
FP Insiders may watch Ravi and John’s debrief of the NATO summit for extra particulars on the way it all went down and a way of The Hague vibes.
Airplane English. Talking of protection spending, the UK introduced this week that it plans to purchase 12 new F-35A fighter jets from the US, giving the British army the power to drop nuclear bombs from the air for the primary time because it retired its nuclear-capable plane on the finish of the Chilly Conflict.
The entire United Kingdom’s present nuclear weapons are seaborne, able to being delivered solely via its fleet of submarines. The F-35As might be deployed as a part of NATO’s nuclear mission, the U.Okay. authorities added.
Even whereas it waits for brand new jets, the nation is lacking considered one of its present ones. A British F-35B has been caught at an airport within the Indian metropolis of Thiruvananthapuram for practically two weeks now, having been pressured to make an emergency touchdown on account of inclement climate on its method again from a joint train with the Indian Navy. “The plane has subsequently developed an engineering difficulty while on the bottom,” the British Deputy Excessive Fee in Bengaluru mentioned in an announcement to Indian information channel NDTV, with the timeline for its return dwelling nonetheless unclear.
Protesters run from the police throughout an indication marking the primary anniversary of the 2024 anti-government protests that left greater than 60 folks lifeless, seen in Nairobi, Kenya, on June 25. No less than 16 folks have been killed on this week’s protests up to now, in accordance to human rights group Amnesty Kenya.Michel Lunanga/Getty Pictures
“When Donald Trump illegally bombed Iran, there was no imminent menace to the U.S. or our troops—that’s precisely the sort of army strike that wants congressional authorization,” Sen. Tammy Duckworth, a member of the Senate Armed Companies Committee, advised SitRep in an emailed assertion.
As our colleague Christina Lu reported, a number of Democratic lawmakers—and even some Republicans—have criticized the Trump administration’s resolution to bomb Iran’s nuclear services final Saturday with out searching for approval from Congress, arguing that the transfer is in contravention of the 1973 Conflict Powers Act, which solely permits the president to order army assaults in three instances: (1) a declaration of battle, (2) after receiving “particular statutory authorization” from Congress, or (3) a “nationwide emergency created by assault upon the US, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.”
That’s not Trump’s solely deployment of the U.S. army that Duckworth is lambasting. The Illinois senator launched a invoice on Thursday aimed toward curbing the U.S. president’s potential to make use of troopers towards U.S. residents on U.S. soil. The “Navy in Regulation Enforcement Accountability Act” would prohibit army assist for legislation enforcement besides in emergency circumstances corresponding to pure disasters and terrorist assaults, requiring congressional approval for any home deployment longer than two weeks.
Duckworth’s laws was in response to Trump’s resolution to ship the Nationwide Guard and Marines to Los Angeles earlier this month to quell protests towards his deportation program. “The unjustified, un-American deployment of our army into our cities is pulling assets and a spotlight away from our Armed Forces’ core missions to the detriment of our nationwide safety,” Duckworth advised SitRep. “This egregious abuse of our army didn’t begin in California—it’s been a plan since Trump’s first day in workplace.”
July 1: Denmark assumes the presidency of the Council of the European Union, assigned on a rotating foundation.
July 2: Argentina hosts a leaders’ summit of the South American commerce bloc Mercosur.
July 4: U.S. Independence Day.
July 6: Brazil hosts the BRICS summit, which Chinese language President Xi Jinping is ready to skip.
July 9: U.S. reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations set to take impact after Trump’s 90-day pause expires.
Sixty-four—the share of Australians who say that they don’t actually belief the US “to behave responsibly on this planet,” in accordance with a brand new survey by the Lowy Institute assume tank, which polled a nationally consultant pattern of greater than 2,000 Australians. It’s the primary time because the survey started in 2006 that the ratio has been extra unfavourable than constructive, with a fair 32-32 break up on the diploma of belief between “not very a lot” and “in no way.” Belief in China, in the meantime, rose barely in comparison with final 12 months however remains to be solely at 20 p.c.
“Within the household, you will have completely different roles—one is cooking, the opposite one is cleansing the kitchen, one is heating the sauna, and the opposite one is bringing the wooden.”
—Estonian Protection Minister Hanno Pevkur to SitRep, describing the shared burden of protection spending inside NATO.
We had an inner debate over how lengthy NATO Secretary-Normal Mark Rutte’s quote calling Trump “daddy” would proceed to have legs on this frenetic information cycle, however it appears like Trump himself favored it sufficient to maintain it going. The White Home shared a recap video on Thursday of Trump’s highlights from the Hague summit with the caption “DADDY’S HOME” and set to the tune of R&B singer Usher’s 2009 hit of the identical title.
