Magic quantity and playoff odds for Purple Sox, Mets, Astros & others with 4 spots left

As we discover ourselves within the closing week of the 2025 MLB common season, all eyes are on the postseason bracket taking form.

Many have already punched their tickets to the postseason, both by successful their respective divisions or by way of the wildcard. These embrace the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees.

This leaves 4 playoff spots nonetheless up for grabs, with some big organizations nonetheless combating tooth and nail to safe qualification.

Let’s check out the magic quantity for a number of the groups nonetheless competing for a spot, and the way FanGraphs estimates their possibilities of qualification.

A group’s magic quantity represents the mix of wins wanted by that group and losses by its closest competitor to clinch a sure purpose, as outlined by the MLB glossary.

To calculate this quantity, one can use two strategies. The primary: 163 – (first-place group’s win complete + second-place group’s loss complete) = magic quantity. The second: Video games remaining + 1 – (losses by second-place group – losses by first-place group) = magic quantity.

MLB postseason 2025: Magic quantity and playoff odds for Purple Sox, Mets, Astros & different contenders

Boston Purple Sox

After having fun with a season-defining surge both facet of the All-Star break, the Purple Sox had been even difficult the Blue Jays and the Yankees for high spot within the AL East at one level.

Although a division title is now unlikely, qualification to the postseason for the primary time since 2021 nonetheless stays firmly inside their grasp. As of now, the magic quantity for the Purple Sox to clinch a postseason spot by way of the wildcard is 3, adjusted in opposition to the Houston Astros. Per FanGraphs, they’ve a 99.5% likelihood of creating the playoffs.

New York Mets

Having began properly and even led their division for big components of the season, the New York Mets have endured a particularly powerful second half.

A lot to the ire of followers, the two-time World Sequence champions even dropped out of the highest three within the NL wildcard standings earlier this week. Nonetheless, a dramatic win in opposition to the Cubs at Wrigley Discipline, mixed with a Cincinnati Reds’ loss at residence to the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, means they’re again within the scorching seat for now.

As of writing, the magic quantity for the Mets is 5, adjusted in opposition to both of the Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks, with each groups trailing the Mets by one recreation. FanGraphs claims they’ve a 67.6% of securing their passage to October from this level.

Houston Astros

Having led the AL West for nearly everything of the season, a late collapse by the Houston Astros now sees them combating tooth and nail simply to make it to the playoffs. In the mean time, they path the Seattle Mariners by 4 video games of their division standings, and sit one recreation outdoors the highest three within the AL wildcard.

At present, the magic quantity for the Astros is 7, adjusted in opposition to both of the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, with each groups main the Astros by a recreation. Per FanGraphs, Houston have a 43.6% likelihood of progressing.

Different MLB groups in rivalry

Aside from the three aforementioned groups, there are 5 different MLB groups that also mathematically have an opportunity to make it by means of. These are the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins.

Detroit Tigers (at the moment tied with Cleveland Guardians atop the AL Central)

Magic Quantity: 4 (adjusted in opposition to the Astros)

Qualification likelihood: 80.5%

Cleveland Guardians (at the moment tied with Detroit Tigers atop the AL Central)

Magic Quantity: 4 (adjusted in opposition to the Astros)

Qualification likelihood: 80%

Cincinnati Reds

Magic Quantity: 7 (adjusted in opposition to the Mets)

Qualification likelihood: 21.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks

Magic Quantity: 7 (adjusted in opposition to the Mets)

Qualification likelihood: 10.9%

Miami Marlins

Magic Quantity: 10 (adjusted in opposition to the Mets)

Qualification likelihood: 0.2%

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alt=”Raghav Mehta” peak=”72″ width=”72″>

Raghav Mehta is a baseball journalist at Sportskeeda awaiting outcomes for a Bachelor’s in Journalism from Delhi College. He enjoys highlighting the important thing battles between gamers at totally different phases of the sport and analyzing the decisive moments upon which they hinge.

One in every of Raghav’s favourite moments, which underscores this, was the Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout conflict within the 2023 WBC, the place two of baseball’s finest gamers confronted off in opposition to one another within the ninth inning. With the rating 3-2 to Japan, Shohei ultimately received the strikeout, which was absolute cinema.

Raghav is a Baltimore Orioles fan and is having fun with watching such an thrilling younger group compete on the high in a really aggressive division.

Raghav has liked watching sports activities for so long as he can bear in mind and realized he was fairly respectable at writing his ideas down at across the age of 14. Combining the 2 meant he had one thing he would get pleasure from doing on daily basis, and he had recognized that properly earlier than going to varsity.

Other than work, Raghav enjoys enjoying sports activities, understanding and watching films.

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Edited by Raghav Mehta