Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s State of affairs Report, the place we’re lamenting the tip of summer time however wanting ahead to the U.N. Common Meeting’s high-level week in New York Metropolis subsequent month, which suggests extra SitRep pop-up editions from Turtle Bay. Attain out if in case you have any behind-the-scenes tidbits to share with us.
Alright, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace deal claims, Israeli preparations for a new Gaza offensive, and Trump selecting a struggle with Venezuela.
Trump-Branded Peace Offers
“I’ve ended six wars,” Trump instructed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a number of other reporters within the White Home on Monday. That turned “I’ve solved seven wars” by the point that he dialed into Fox & Buddies for an interview the subsequent day. The White Home didn’t reply to a request for clarification on which conflicts Trump was referring to.
However at the least a few of these offers—and Trump’s function in them—aren’t as clear-cut because the U.S. president makes them out to be as he unabashedly lobbies for the Nobel Peace Prize. And opposite to Trump’s declare that he “didn’t do any cease-fires” in his second time period to this point, the president’s personal posts about a number of of the peace offers that he claims to have negotiated have explicitly talked about a cease-fire.
India and Pakistan
Trump’s claims of ending this yr’s armed battle between India and Pakistan started on Might 10, when he posted on Fact Social that each international locations had agreed to a “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” following “a protracted evening of talks mediated by the US.” Trump has continued to take credit score for ending that battle.
Pakistan enthusiastically co-signed that assertion, even nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for what it referred to as his “decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal management” in the course of the battle.
However India has constantly downplayed and disputed Trump’s function in securing the cease-fire, repeatedly saying that an finish to the battle was negotiated straight with Pakistani officers.
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The battle between the 2 central African international locations was the second that Trump talked about in his assembly with Zelensky.
The Trump administration did certainly play a task in securing a pause in hostilities between Rwanda and Congo, in addition to in brokering a preliminary peace deal that was signed on the White Home in late June, adopted by a cease-fire settlement in Qatar in July.
However that cease-fire has not held, and peace talks geared toward securing a everlasting settlement fell by means of this week after the Rwandan-backed M23 insurgent group walked away from the negotiations.
Cambodia and Thailand
Border skirmishes between the 2 Southeast Asian international locations, the newest flash level of their yearslong battle, killed greater than 40 individuals and displaced greater than 300,000 others final month. The cease-fire, which started on July 28 however stays tenuous, was brokered primarily by Malaysia and its prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, although the US and China had been each concerned in talks main as much as it.
Trump posted on Fact Social two days earlier than the cease-fire that the US was “dealing on Commerce with each International locations” however wouldn’t accomplish that except they stopped combating. He then took credit score for the cease-fire when it was agreed upon, writing: “I’m happy to announce that, after the involvement of President Donald J. Trump, each International locations have reached a CEASEFIRE and PEACE.”
Armenia and Azerbaijan
In the latest and maybe probably the most convincing of Trump’s mediation claims, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a deal in Washington earlier this month to settle their long-running dispute over the so-called Zangezur hall that each international locations declare. That hall will now be renamed the “Trump Route for Worldwide Peace and Prosperity,” with Washington additionally getting leasing rights for a U.S. firm to develop it.
Israel-Iran
Trump introduced an Israel-Iran cease-fire in late June after a 12-day battle that additionally noticed the US strike key Iranian nuclear services. Although the cease-fire appeared shaky at first, it finally held. However the underlying causes of the battle haven’t been resolved.
There are open questions concerning the extent of the harm to Iran’s nuclear program, regardless of Trump’s claims that it was obliterated. And it stays to be seen if , which the US was within the midst of when Israel launched its operation in opposition to Iran, will ever resume.
Different ‘Peace Offers’
Trump has taken credit score for making “peace” between Egypt and Ethiopia. The 2 international locations weren’t at warfare, however there’s battle between them over a hydroelectric dam. The president claimed in June that he had helped resolve the dispute and that “there’s peace, at the least for now.” Trump did get entangled within the diplomatic spat again throughout his first time period, but it surely has not been settled.
The White Home has additionally pointed to Serbia and Kosovo as one other instance of a battle that Trump resolved. However these international locations haven’t been in direct battle for the reason that late Nineteen Nineties. Trump did assist dealer an financial normalization deal between the 2 international locations in his first time period, however their long-running tensions are removed from resolved.
Let’s Get Personnel
The Trump administration’s slashing of the U.S. intelligence neighborhood additional expanded on Wednesday, with Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard saying that she can be firing practically half of her workplace. That’s along with the five hundred workers whom Gabbard stated she has fired since taking the helm of the workplace, which accounted for practically 30 % of the workers.
It’s all a part of a plan that Gabbard dubbed “ODNI 2.0,” which she stated is supposed to streamline the company to help Trump’s priorities. “Over the past 20 years, ODNI has change into bloated, radically expanded in dimension, and distracted by duties and necessities that fall exterior its mandate,” Gabbard stated within the announcement. “ODNI and the IC [intelligence community] are plagued with unauthorized intelligence leaks, politicization, and weaponization of intelligence.”
The announcement got here a day after Gabbard revoked the safety clearances of 37 present and former officers, together with a number of concerned within the investigation into Russia’s interference within the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
On the Button
What must be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
A brand new Gaza offensive. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Thursday that he’ll give last approval for a controversial army operation to take over Gaza Metropolis, which has been among the many few areas of the enclave not beneath Israeli management. The transfer comes regardless of worldwide outcry and opposition inside Israel.
Israel performed strikes on Gaza Metropolis in a single day as a part of the preliminary phases of the offensive. The operation is especially regarding to the broader world amid the escalating humanitarian disaster in Gaza, and as Israel engages in talks with South Sudan to relocate Gazans there.
Netanyahu additionally stated on Thursday that he had instructed instant negotiations to start for the discharge of remaining hostages in Gaza and an finish to the warfare on phrases acceptable to Israel—a perplexing announcement as Israel escalates the battle with its Gaza Metropolis operation. This comes after Hamas agreed earlier this week to a proposal for a cease-fire from Arab mediators, which reportedly has related phrases to a deal beforehand embraced by Israel.
In the meantime, there are additionally world considerations about Israel giving last approval for a settlement mission that may divide the occupied West Financial institution in half. The plan is a significant impediment to the worldwide neighborhood’s long-standing objective of a two-state resolution. Netanyahu’s authorities vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood.
Zelensky debrief. The mud continues to decide on Trump’s flurry of diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the seven European leaders who visited Washington up to now week, however Zelensky struck a optimistic notice after his return residence. Talking to reporters in Kyiv on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president’s massive takeaway was the U.S. dedication to take part in any postwar safety ensures for his nation.
“I’m very grateful to President Trump for this,” he stated.
There’s a lengthy highway to get to that time, nonetheless, and Russia confirmed its ever-present willingness to play spoilsport by insisting that it should even be a part of these safety ensures—proper earlier than launching its largest barrage of airstrikes on Ukraine in a fortnight. Putin has additionally reportedly reiterated his calls for that Ukraine cede the complete Donbas area to Russia (extra on that from John right here), decide to no Western troops on its soil, and cease attempting to hitch NATO.
Zelensky additionally stated he was dedicated to a bilateral assembly with Putin however dominated out Moscow or the Hungarian capital, Budapest, as doable venues, as an alternative suggesting international locations in “impartial Europe,” comparable to Austria, Switzerland, or Turkey.
Ships off Venezuela. The Trump administration is transferring forward with its plans to ship three U.S. Navy destroyers to the waters off Venezuela’s coast, based on a number of stories. It’s a part of Trump’s broader plan to have the U.S. army fight Latin American drug cartels. The ships will reportedly be accompanied by 4,000 U.S. troops.
The Trump administration additionally doubled its reward earlier this month for the seize of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—whom the US has refused to acknowledge because the nation’s legit chief since 2019—to as a lot as $50 million. Maduro responded by saying he had mobilized 4.5 million militiamen throughout Venezuela to thwart any potential U.S. menace.
Snapshot
Syrians mark the twelfth anniversary of former chief Bashar al-Assad’s 2013 chemical assault on Ghouta, seen in Zamalka, Syria, on Aug. 21.Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Photos
Placed on Your Radar
Monday, Aug. 25: Trump hosts South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, Aug. 27: Extra 25 % U.S. tariffs on India for its purchases of Russian oil go into impact.
By the Numbers
58: The % of People who say all international locations within the United Nations ought to acknowledge Palestine as a rustic, based on a brand new Reuters/Ipsos ballot that surveyed 4,446 U.S. adults between Aug. 13 and Aug. 18. That determine was a lot greater amongst Democrats, at 78 %, with solely 41 % of Republicans endorsing the popularity of a Palestinian state.
Quote of the Week
“I wish to try to get to heaven if doable. I hear I’m not doing nicely. I hear I’m actually on the backside of the totem pole.” —Trump, in his Fox & Buddies interview on Tuesday, explaining why he’s attempting to finish the warfare in Ukraine.
This Week’s Most Learn
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
We often maintain our publication targeted on foreign-policy information, however we’ll make an exception for this wild story about an aide to New York Metropolis Mayor Eric Adams’s reelection marketing campaign reportedly handing a neighborhood reporter a crimson envelope full of money stuffed inside an empty bag of potato chips. A lawyer for the aide insists it was not an tried bribe, and the aide has apologized, calling it “a mistake.” She has been suspended from additional work on the marketing campaign.
