Govt abstract:
- Massive caps make new highs
- Main digital asset laws signed throughout “Crypto Week”
- Earnings season kicks off with a robust begin
- U.S. Greenback rallies on growing commerce offers
- FOMC holds charges regular
July continued the sturdy run for shares seeing the S&P 500 up for the third month in a row, and the Nasdaq for the fourth. Curiously, the S&P 500 did not have any important strikes of 1% in both route, which hasn’t occurred since July 2023. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, stayed comparatively calm, ending the month round 17. Huge tech shares had been the celebs of the present, however different sectors like homebuilders, banks, auto suppliers, and oil majors additionally did nicely. On the flip aspect, sectors like logistics, leisure, and media did not carry out as strongly.
This month’s market rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new file highs, bouncing again from the post-Liberation Day selloff. The rally was fueled by easing tariffs and commerce tensions, a robust begin to the earnings season, and a resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Optimistic developments within the AI sector, elevated deal exercise, and the passage of the Huge Lovely Invoice additionally helped enhance market sentiment. Regardless of some considerations about rising rates of interest, the market remained optimistic, supported by resilient financial information.
Commerce agreements performed a major function available in the market’s efficiency. The U.S. reached a number of commerce offers earlier than the August 1 deadline, together with agreements with the EU and Japan. Talks with China confirmed indicators of progress, with Treasury Secretary Bessent expressing optimism in regards to the negotiations. Nevertheless, commerce tensions with Canada remained elevated, and a Federal appeals court docket heard arguments concerning the legality of tariffs. Buyers centered extra on the diminished uncertainty round commerce coverage fairly than particular tariff ranges, with AI momentum offsetting the tariff influence in sure sectors.
Financial information for the month was blended. June payrolls exceeded expectations, and the unemployment fee ticked right down to 4.1%. Nevertheless, job progress is predicted to sluggish in July. Preliminary jobless claims fell for six consecutive weeks earlier than a slight uptick, whereas persevering with claims remained excessive. CPI and PPI information got here in cooler than anticipated, however housing information was usually weak. The Fed’s July assembly featured hawkish takeaways, with no hints of a fee reduce in September. Tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell continued, including to market uncertainty.
Index efficiency for July:
Sector efficiency whole return for July:
Digital Property:
July kicked off with heightened anticipation forward of “Crypto Week” which happened between July 14-18th aiming to deal with essential crypto laws. The spotlight was the passage of the Guiding and Establishing Nationwide Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), which acquired a decisive 308-122 vote within the Home on July 17 and was signed into regulation by President Trump on July 18. This landmark laws establishes the primary federal regulatory framework for fee stablecoins, introducing a two-tier licensing system. Stablecoin issuers with a market capitalization beneath $10 billion can get hold of state-level licenses, whereas bigger entities require federal licenses overseen by the Workplace of the Comptroller of the Foreign money (OCC). The regulation mandates that stablecoins be backed 100% by high-quality liquid belongings like U.S. {dollars} or Treasuries, with month-to-month reserve disclosures, alongside strict anti-money laundering (AML), know-your-customer (KYC), and sanctions compliance necessities. This transfer goals to bolster client safety and combine stablecoins into the regulated monetary system, a major step ahead for digital funds.
Alongside the GENIUS Act, the Digital Asset Market Readability (CLARITY Act) superior, passing the Home with a 294-134 vote on July 18. This invoice seeks to resolve jurisdictional disputes between the Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC), proposing a useful regulatory framework for digital belongings. It goals to make clear oversight duties and set clearer guidelines for market members, although it nonetheless awaits Senate consideration. Moreover, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, handed narrowly by a 219-210 vote, prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a central financial institution digital foreign money (CBDC), reflecting considerations over privateness and authorities overreach. These payments collectively sign a shift towards regulatory readability and innovation, although their Senate journey stays unsure.
On the state degree, Texas made historical past by establishing the primary U.S. state-managed Bitcoin reserve, signed into regulation this month. The reserve, managed by the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts with steering from a crypto funding advisory committee, restricts eligible belongings to these with a market cap exceeding $500 billion—presently solely Bitcoin—and permits progress by purchases, forks, airdrops, features, and donations. This transfer positions Texas as a pacesetter in state-level crypto adoption, although Arizona’s Governor vetoed an identical Bitcoin reserve invoice on July 1, highlighting divergent state approaches.
Trying ahead, the Senate will play a essential function in shaping these initiatives. The GENIUS Act, already Senate-approved, might attain the president’s desk earlier than the August recess if it passes with out main revisions. The CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act face extra scrutiny, with potential debates extending into September, particularly given partisan divides on CBDC points. The Working Group’s July 22 report might affect these discussions, probably proposing a “nationwide digital asset stockpile” or further legislative measures. Internationally, the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Property (MiCA) regulation continues its phased implementation, with ongoing Degree 2 and three textual content improvement, whereas the UK advances its cryptoasset regime, with ultimate guidelines anticipated in 2026.
Earnings commentary:
With ~60% of S&P 500 firms reporting earnings for Q2’25, the outcomes have been stable, however the outlook stays unsure. Up to now this reporting cycle, just below 83% of firms are reporting EPS above estimates, which is above each the 5 and 10-year averages of 78% and 75% respectively. The mixture earnings shock is +7.3% presently, which is beneath the 5-year common of 9.1%, however above the 10-year common of 6.9%. Optimistic EPS surprises are being led by the Power sector which has printed +12.7% above estimates, adopted by Financials (10.8%) and Communications (9.0%). Solely Industrials has had a detrimental EPS shock which got here in 2.4% beneath estimates.
On progress entrance, extra sectors are within the purple, however the total earnings progress is nicely above current developments. At present the common earnings progress fee stands at 9.5%. There are presently six sectors reporting EPS progress, led by Know-how (21.6%), Financials (20.3%), and Communications (18.8%), whereas Shopper Discretionary (-19.5%), and Well being Care (-8.1%) are the clear laggards.
Gross sales surprises and progress are additionally trending nicely, with 9 sectors reporting optimistic gross sales progress, with solely Power (-5.8%) and Shopper Discretionary (-0.3%) reporting contractions. The typical gross sales progress determine for the quarter presently sits at 6.6%. Gross sales surprises for the primary quarter are led by Power firms with a mean beat of 6.9%, with Supplies lagging with a 0.9% common shock. The general upside gross sales shock being reported so far is 2.6%.
Gross sales and earnings outcomes by S&P sector:
2-day value response following earnings releases:
Incomes Name Mentions:
Tariffs
Generative AI
Fed fee reduce odds:
Bitcoin:
DXY:
GDP rose in Q2 led by web exports:
Commerce Offers:
Trying forward:
August will convey the conclusion of Q2’25 earnings season, in addition to additional financial information together with jobs, inflation and GDP. Whereas the Federal Reserve is not going to meet once more till mid September, the August information might be key drivers of their potential coverage adjustments. During the last 15 years, the month of August has seen a mean return of -0.45%, with 8 years within the purple and seven within the inexperienced. Solely September noticed worse returns throughout that timeframe with a mean return of -0.94%.
Financial Calendar:
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