“I wish to swim in Lake Tiberias,” then-Syrian chief Hafez al-Assad informed U.S. President Invoice Clinton in March 2000, simply months earlier than his demise. It was a placing comment throughout the last stretch of Israeli-Syrian peace talks—negotiations that had as soon as impressed optimism in Washington and Jerusalem. Israel had signaled a willingness to withdraw from the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau it captured in 1967, however balked at permitting Syrian entry to Lake Tiberias (often known as the Sea of Galilee). In the long run, the talks collapsed.
Now, U.S. President Donald Trump has picked up the place Clinton left off, pushing Syria and Israel towards peace negotiations. Nonetheless, this time, it’s not an Assad on the desk; it’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, the previous militant chief whose forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
“I wish to swim in Lake Tiberias,” then-Syrian chief Hafez al-Assad informed U.S. President Invoice Clinton in March 2000, simply months earlier than his demise. It was a placing comment throughout the last stretch of Israeli-Syrian peace talks—negotiations that had as soon as impressed optimism in Washington and Jerusalem. Israel had signaled a willingness to withdraw from the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau it captured in 1967, however balked at permitting Syrian entry to Lake Tiberias (often known as the Sea of Galilee). In the long run, the talks collapsed.
Now, U.S. President Donald Trump has picked up the place Clinton left off, pushing Syria and Israel towards peace negotiations. Nonetheless, this time, it’s not an Assad on the desk; it’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, the previous militant chief whose forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
However regardless of the change in management, making peace is not going to be straightforward. Actually, it will not be doable. Fortunately, this doesn’t rule out restricted types of safety cooperation. At this time, Syria and Israel can discover frequent floor in confronting shared threats—notably Hezbollah and different Iranian proxies working close to their borders. Negotiations that prioritize these modest objectives over a complete peace settlement might be much more prone to deliver tangible outcomes.
The structural realities that doomed earlier negotiations stay in place and have solely been compounded by new challenges. For Israelis, the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, bloodbath has hardened nationwide consensus in opposition to ceding any strategic territory. For Syrians, conceding the lack of the Golan—seen as an emblem of nationwide dignity—stays politically unthinkable.
Fifty-eight years after Syria misplaced the Golan Heights, it stays etched into the nationwide psyche—not simply as a strip of land however as an emblem of loss and identification. For a lot of Syrians, the Golan is a wound that shapes how they see their nation. Syrian faculty curricula have traditionally framed the Golan as an “Arab Syrian land” seized by Israel whereas lecturers portrayed ideas reminiscent of resistance to Israel as noble motion. Twelfth grade textbooks even outlined modern-day jihad by the lens of resistance within the Golan, casting the wrestle to reclaim it as a sacred responsibility.
The Golan is essentially the most seen impediment—however not the one one. Sharaa governs a rustic nonetheless reeling from civil battle, with fragile establishments and a skeptical public. Israel was already deeply unpopular in Syria, and up to date occasions have solely exacerbated the state of affairs. After the autumn of the Assad regime, Israel launched an aerial and floor marketing campaign to destroy Assad’s navy infrastructure and despatched troops into southern Syria, taking on positions in and past the demilitarized zone established after the 1973 Arab-Israeli battle. Extraordinary Syrians have additionally watched photographs of the Gaza battle play out on tv for the final 12 months and a half, additional complicating Sharaa’s skill to pursue any negotiations.
In opposition to this backdrop, even symbolic gestures towards peace danger blowback from residents and jihadi teams alike. In consequence, the hurdles to an Israeli-Syrian normalization settlement outweigh the incentives for Sharaa.
And even when Sharaa have been prepared to compromise on the Golan and pursue a peace treaty in alternate for incentives—reminiscent of expanded sanctions reduction or assured overseas funding— a fractured state limits his skill to ship a deal.
This stands in stark distinction to the relative energy of different regimes which have made peace with Israel. Egypt’s Anwar Sadat and Jordan’s King Hussein have been capable of not solely signal peace agreements however guarantee their continuation. As Jacob Abadi of the U.S. Air Pressure Academy famous, “With a view to suppress the opposition to the separate treaty … the King [Hussein] needed to take a private lead within the marketing campaign and present the Jordanian public that this ‘was the King’s peace.’” Equally, Sadat used sweeping arrests in 1981 to neutralize dissent in opposition to the Camp David Accords.
Sharaa, by comparability, has solely been in energy for six months, and whereas he governs the vast majority of Syria, a lot stays past his management. He doesn’t have the institutional depth or coercive capability to implement such a controversial resolution. Syria’s post-Assad establishments stay brittle, and his ruling coalition contains factions that, whereas presently loyal, may oppose him if he strikes towards normalization with Israel.
Among the overseas fighters who helped Sharaa oust Assad are already turning in opposition to him. Their anger stems not solely from his refusal to impose strict Islamic legislation but in addition from claims that he has cooperated with america to focus on extremist factions. These fighters, lots of whom maintain inflexible ideological beliefs, have condemned Sharaa’s new authorities as “un-Islamic” and criticized its outreach to Western officers. Including to this pressure, figures inside his personal group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—together with Mazhar al-Wais, Sharaa’s personal justice minister—have publicly praised the Oct. 7 bloodbath and referred to Hamas fighters as “mujahideen of justice and jihad.” HTS’s political workplace additionally declared unwavering help for the “Palestinian individuals to reclaim their land.” Whereas these statements have been made earlier than they formally assumed energy, they recommend that key members of Sharaa’s authorities stay deeply hostile to Israel and will severely hinder any try and strike a deal.
When all these elements are weighed up, a whole peace settlement between Israel and Syria is out of attain—for now. That’s the reason america ought to dealer a security-first framework that reduces tensions and builds belief. It should additionally keep away from pushing Sharaa into politically damaging concessions.
Already, Syrian officers have sought to alleviate Israel’s considerations over the brand new management. Sharaa said in December that he would “search no battle, whether or not with Israel or anybody else, and we is not going to permit Syria for use as a base for such hostilities.” Damascus Gov. Maher Marwan has additionally signaled that the brand new administration will not be terrified of Israel and doesn’t wish to endanger its safety.
Negotiations ought to construct on this to advance additional security-related measures. As a primary step, Damascus ought to be requested to expel all Palestinian factions and leaders who’ve operated on Syrian soil for the reason that days of Hafez al-Assad and seize the properties they’ve amassed. To this point, Damascus has solely established a monitoring mechanism and selectively focused pro-Assad Palestinian teams.
Second, Syria ought to coordinate with Israel to dismantle Iran-backed militias entrenched within the south, such because the so-called Islamic Resistance Entrance in Syria.
Most crucially, there’s room for intelligence cooperation in opposition to Hezbollah. Regardless of the autumn of the Assad regime, Hezbollah should still try to make use of Syria as a weapons hall from Iran to Lebanon. With Israel’s intelligence capabilities and Syria’s aim of curbing Hezbollah’s actions in its territory, each side have a shared curiosity in sealing off this provide line.
In the long run, a full-scale normalization deal between Syria and Israel—on the mannequin of the Abraham Accords—is unrealistic within the brief time period and shouldn’t be rushed. Pushing for a fast breakthrough may backfire, overwhelming Sharaa and prompting him to desert the method totally. As a substitute, Washington ought to champion a gradual, phased strategy.
On the similar time, america ought to reassure Israel that these preliminary steps aren’t an finish in themselves however a pathway towards eventual full normalization—a aim that Israeli officers have emphasised in current weeks. For Sharaa, a slower tempo provides extra respiratory room. He understands that dashing the method may destabilize his fragile grip on energy. Nonetheless, if given time to exhibit stability, the probability that Sharaa and Syrians will embrace normalization will develop.
