Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief.
The highlights this week: U.S. talks with Cuba appear to intensify, two key Caribbean newspapers shut down, and Venezuela bests the United States in a baseball championship.
As the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran continues, U.S. President Donald Trump has doubled down on vows to use American power to alter the destiny of a much weaker country: Cuba. “I do believe I’ll have the honor of taking Cuba,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “I can do anything I want with it.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month that the United States would like to see economic and political liberalization in Havana. Trump and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel have confirmed ongoing negotiations between the countries. In the meantime, Washington has severely restricted fuel shipments to the island, which suffered a complete blackout on Monday.
Also on Monday, U.S. pressure appeared to produce a political result: Cuba’s deputy prime minister said that the government would introduce permissions for Cuban nationals living overseas to invest in and own companies on the island. Rubio, who is Cuban American, was quick to say the announcement did not go far enough.
In addition to policy changes, multiple news organizations have reported that the United States wants to see Díaz-Canel leave office. Some reports suggested the Trump administration would accept an arrangement in Cuba that leaves many current government officials in place, similar to how the United States dealt with Venezuela after removing President Nicolás Maduro in January.
“The administration might settle for something less than regime change,” William LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh wrote this week in Foreign Policy.
That possibility has alarmed many Cubans who seek political liberties, both inside the country and in the diaspora. Trump’s approach to Venezuela—though fluid—has cast the prospect of intervention without democratization in sharp relief. On Wednesday, acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez appointed a hard-liner as defense minister.
A U.S. deal with Cuba that merely reshuffles the regime and focuses narrowly on economic liberalization would “crush the aspirations of Cubans both on the island and in exile who have fought to establish democratic rights in their homeland,” University of Illinois political scientist María de los Ángeles Torres wrote this week in the New York Times.
Torres participated in U.S. government engagement with Cuba in the late 1970s. At that time, the Carter administration facilitated dialogue between Cuban exiles in the United States and the government in Havana. Those talks led to the release of some 3,600 political prisoners. But they required careful engagement on human rights matters—something that is not happening enough now, Torres said.
Other stakeholders, particularly Pope Leo XIV, appear to be working to platform human rights concerns into the ongoing talks. Cuba’s foreign ministry announced last week that the country would release 51 prisoners out of goodwill to the Vatican, without giving further details. The Vatican has often facilitated U.S. negotiations with Cuba, which is home to many Catholics.
Trump suggested he wants a result to announce quickly. On Tuesday he said, “We’ll be doing something with Cuba very soon.”
Saturday, March 21: Colombia hosts a summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.
Sunday, March 22: Bolivia holds local elections.
Democracy scorecards. Two democracy watchdogs released annual reports this week that flagged changes for Latin American countries.
Freedom House found that Bolivia was one of the countries where liberties had improved the most in 2025, while El Salvador was among the places where they had most declined. It cited Bolivia’s competitive elections and peaceful transfer of power alongside El Salvador’s abolition of presidential term limits.
A more detailed report from the University of Gothenburg’s Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem) found that Bolivia, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala experienced episodes of democratization in 2025, while Argentina, El Salvador, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru experienced episodes of autocratization.
Guyana, for its part, received a full upgrade from “electoral autocracy” to “electoral democracy,” although it is still in what V-Dem calls the “gray zone.” The report highlighted Mexico’s direct elections for judges as an example of democratic decline.
On balance, Latin America and the Caribbean remains one of the more democratic regions in the world, V-Dem said. Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay hold rankings that are better than the United States, which lost its “liberal democracy” classification for the first time in more than 50 years.
Caribbean newspapers meet demise. In an inauspicious sign for transparency in the Caribbean, important newspapers in both Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana have shut down, citing financial difficulties. In Trinidad, Newsday issued its last print and online editions in January. In Guyana, the Stabroek News issued its last print edition and online updates on Sunday.
Both newspapers were independently owned. A former Newsday editor in chief told the Associated Press that it had focused on coverage of Tobago, the country’s smaller island, and aimed to boost the voices of struggling people.
In Guyana, the Stabroek News was a forum where investigative journalists covered the details of the country’s rapid transformation amid an oil boom in recent years. It also reprinted the work of Guyanese poet Martin Carter to promote the country’s distinct literary heritage. A Carter poem the newspaper ran last December described a “hand grown weary on a truthful page.”
Members of Team Venezuela celebrate after their 3-2 victory against the United States at the World Baseball Classic at LoanDepot Park in Miami on March 17.Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Best in béisbol. On Tuesday, Venezuelans across the country’s political spectrum—and the world—exploded into celebration as the country defeated the United States in the World Baseball Classic in Miami.
Venezuelan third baseman Eugenio Suárez hit a double that delivered the victory in the ninth inning, bringing the stadium—packed with more Venezuelan fans than American ones—to its feet. Many Venezuelans play in U.S. leagues during the regular season. But the global tournament was a moment of pride for the players and fans battered by years of political crisis.
Captain Salvador Perez, who plays for the Kansas City Royals, said after the match that though the World Series—the misleading name for the U.S. Major League Baseball championship—was important, “when you fight for your country, that goes beyond.”
Which other Latin American country has won the World Baseball Classic?
Mexico
The Dominican Republic
Haiti
Panama
The country’s national team beat Puerto Rico to win the 2013 title.
An aerial view shows a cargo ship next to the port in Georgetown, Guyana, on Sept. 3, 2025.Joaquín Sarmiento/AFP via Getty Images
As the war in Iran nears its fourth week, its potential economic impact in Latin America and the Caribbean is coming into sharper focus.
Countries that import the most oil are expected to see higher inflation—including much of the Caribbean and Central America as well as some larger economies, such as Chile and Peru. Last week, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 inflation forecasts for those countries by 0.7 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
The oil price shock comes at an especially sensitive time for governments in Argentina and Bolivia, which are trying to wind down ultra-high inflation cycles with market-friendly reforms. In the same report, Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for Argentina’s inflation this year from 22.5 to 27 percent. (The report did not cover Bolivia.)
Latin American farmers are big buyers of fertilizer that transits the Strait of Hormuz, which could increase food inflation even faster. On Tuesday, the United Nations World Food Program issued a projection that if the war continues through mid-2026 and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, 2.2 million people in the region could be pushed into acute food insecurity.
On the other hand, the war also stands to produce extra profits for countries in the region that are experiencing oil booms. These include Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. Goldman Sachs forecasted that unlike net oil importers, Argentina’s GDP is not expected to drop at all this year due to the war, while Brazil’s is expected to increase slightly.
