Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: The Philippines’ Duterte faces the ICC, U.S. tariff chaos undermines trade deals, and where Southeast Asia gets its weapons.
On Monday, hearings began at the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Rodrigo Duterte, former president of the Philippines.
Duterte is charged with crimes against humanity of murder and attempted murder between 2011 and 2019 as part of his “war on drugs” campaign. The confirmation hearing will determine if there is sufficient evidence to proceed to a full trial.
Duterte, who served as president from 2016 to 2022, waived his right to appear before the court. In a letter submitted to the ICC last week, Duterte repeated his refusal to recognize the court’s jurisdiction, denied all accusations against him, and pleaded frailty.
“I am a Filipino citizen forcibly pushed into a jet and renditioned to The Hague in the Netherlands in flagrant contravention of my country’s Constitution and of national sovereignty,” the letter read.
Duterte dismissed accusations against him as an “outrageous lie” that had been “peddled by my political opponents.”
He added: “I do not wish to attend legal proceedings that I will forget within minutes. I am old, tired, and frail. I wish for this Court to respect my peace inside the cell it has placed me.” Duterte has been detained since March of last year in The Hague.
The panel of judges overseeing the hearing granted the request despite dismissing the submission as “speculative.”
Many others might also question the validity of Duterte’s claims. “If you know of any addicts, go ahead and kill them yourself as getting their parents to do it would be too painful,” he declared in 2016 in an impromptu speech given in a Manila slum after his inauguration.
On another occasion, he claimed that when he was mayor of Davao, he patrolled streets looking for people to kill. As to his health, the ICC ruled in January that Duterte was fit to attend pretrial hearings.
As for jurisdiction, the investigation’s odd scope—2011 to 2019—reflects the years the Philippines was formally party to the Rome Statute, which grants the ICC jurisdiction. Duterte pulled the country out, and it has yet to rejoin.
There is an awkward element in that this prosecution is also deeply bound up with Philippine domestic politics. The arrest and extradition of Duterte to The Hague came as President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. disintegrated Duterte’s dynastic alliance.
The sincerity of Marcos’s commitment to the principles of international justice is questionable. The Philippines has yet to rejoin the Rome Statute. And Marcos himself has elevated the memory of his dictatorial father, former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr.
And then, on Feb. 18, Marcos’s vice president, Sara Duterte, daughter of Rodrigo, announced that she would run for the presidency in the 2028 election.
Polls show her as a strong early front-runner. Notably, polls showed Duterte’s ratings rose and Marcos’s began to decline following her father’s arrest last year.
Sara faces four impeachment attempts that could bar her from running for the presidency. This, alongside her father’s trial, could be used to build a strong narrative of supposed persecution by the increasingly unpopular Marcos.
Furthermore, in documents released Feb. 13, the ICC named eight prominent Filipino politicians and police figures associated with Rodrigo Duterte as “co-perpetrators” in the case against him.
The list includes two powerful Philippine senators: Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go.
Sen. Go, associated with a popular public health access initiative, is spoken about as a potential running mate for Sara Duterte or even a presidential contender in his own right.
U.S. tariff ruling hits Southeast Asia hard. The U.S. Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 decision to strike down U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs has once again thrown global trade arrangements into uncertainty—including for the various Southeast Asian countries that made sometimes painful concessions in return for deals.
The Supreme Court ruling means uncertainty for these countries but also potential leverage to try to reset trade on more favorable terms. And with a number of the deals yet to be finalized, Indonesia and Malaysia have already hinted they may seek adjustments.
Indonesia may be in a particularly awkward position. It agreed to a supposedly final deal the day before the Supreme Court rendered its ruling.
The optics of the deal were uncomfortable. It was announced by a White House briefing titled “Implementation of the Agreement Toward a NEW GOLDEN AGE for the U.S.-Indonesian Alliance.” The word “alliance” raised eyebrows given Indonesia’s steadfast commitment to nonalignment since independence.
The agreement was reached on the sidelines of the inaugural meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace. Notably, Indonesia has promised to provide 8,000 troops as peacekeepers in Gaza, and as the largest troops contributor it will take the role of deputy commander under the United States. The troops will initially be stationed in Rafah.
Indonesia has promised its troops will only perform humanitarian tasks and not carry out combat missions. What this will mean in practice as Israel continues to carry out strikes and Hamas reestablishes itself across Gaza is uncertain.
For some critics, the deal looks like a quid pro quo of Indonesian troops to seal a trade deal—now rendered pointless by the Supreme Court. The Board of Peace role is controversial domestically, and such a narrative could gain traction in Indonesia.
But President Prabowo Subianto has been pushing to promote Indonesia’s global standing even before the deal and has long seemed keen to involve Indonesia in peacekeeping missions in Gaza and beyond.
Laos showpiece election. On Sunday, citizens of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic went to the polls. With the 243 candidates for the National Assembly’s 175 seats pre-selected by the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party, the election is more a show than a genuine political exercise.
This year has seen a flicker of drama. Legislator Valy Vetsaphong, who had been one of six non-Communist Party members, announced she was stepping down for personal reasons not long after the official candidate list was released with her name omitted.
The decision sparked an unusual show of dissent and criticism online, with many speculating she had been pressured to step down. Valy was known for her forthright criticism of corruption as well as China’s often heavy presence in the country.
Vietnam welcomes Starlink. On Feb. 21, Vietnam announced it will host four Starlink gateways—vital infrastructure for the company’s ability to provide Wi-Fi via its satellite constellation.
The new details follow a Feb. 14 announcement that Vietnam would allow the company to operate in the country.
The gateways will be located around Vietnam’s major economic and political hubs: One in Phu Tho province north of the capital, Hanoi; one in Da Nang City; and two in Ho Chi Minh City.
Vietnam will become the fifth Southeast Asian country to host Starlink after the Philippines (2023), Malaysia (2023), Indonesia (2024), and Timor-Leste (2024). Notably, Vietnam relaxed its usual foreign ownership limit on telecommunications to let Starlink operate.
Vietnam already has the 10th-fastest fixed internet speed in the world.
Visitors look at the Kaaba covering an exhibition showcasing 45 relics of the Prophet Mohammed and his companions, in Pakansari, Bogor Regency, West Java, Indonesia, on Feb. 21. Eko Siswono Toyudho/Anadolu via Getty Images
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It used to be English, Korean, or Japanese, but as Hong Chieu in VnExpress International reports, Vietnamese are now flocking to take Chinese-language lessons as Chinese capital and companies flood into the country.
In his first-ever international media interview, with Simon Lewis at Reuters, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet accused Thailand of illegally occupying Cambodian territory.
Why Indonesia just can’t quit. Dave Grunebaum digs into why Indonesia has the second-highest smoking rate in the world, for the World.
In Focus: Southeast Asia’s Diversifying Arms Market
New U.S. arms export rules are affecting Southeast Asia’s supply. Countries in the region will face more difficulty purchasing American weapons, Derek Grossman wrote in Foreign Policy last week, and so will have to diversify their suppliers.
This represents the intensification of an already existing trend in the region.
Between 2014 and 2018, Cold War legacies meant arms transfers to Southeast Asia were dominated by Russia and the U.S.—who respectively accounted for 26.3 percent and 14.7 percent of transfers, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
A long tail of countries with shares below 10 percent followed, including South Korea (8.2 percent), China (7.5 percent), France (5.8 percent), the United Kingdom (5.7 percent), and Germany (5.2 percent).
From 2019 to 2025, the pattern looks rather different, according to my own calculations using SIPRI’s database. Russia is down to 9.7 percent in large part due to a collapse in arms exports from 2020 on, and especially after it launched its invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. has seen its share actually increase somewhat to 17.6 percent, but other players are also making themselves felt.
China also increased its share sharply to 12.4 percent. Its biggest recipient is nominal U.S. ally Thailand followed by Myanmar, where it has emerged as a major junta backer.
Germany and France’s shares hit new highs of 10.9 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively, thanks to major transfers to Singapore.
South Korea increased its market share driven mainly by transfers to the Philippines. Israel has also emerged as an important supplier to the Philippines.
India is also making its presence felt. Its current share of 2.2 percent is modest, but previously it was practically nonexistent. Grimly, this was driven by big purchases by Myanmar in 2020, right before the current civil war started.
Expect these trends to continue as U.S. exports dip.
China will likely continue to aggressively grow its share. Indonesia recently signed a multibillion-dollar deal for jets, impressed by the Chinese J-10’s performance against French Rafales during India-Pakistan clashes.
China is also the world’s premium supplier of drones—which the Russia-Ukraine war is revealing as the weapons of the future.
Meanwhile, Germany’s massive rearmament will create a big arms industry that will likely be hungry to win exports—provided European orders don’t completely fill its books.
Longer term, Japan’s recent tentative moves into arms exports could yet see it grow into a major player thanks to its technological sophistication.
