Welcome again to International Coverage’s Latin America Temporary, and Blissful New 12 months.
This week, we’re previewing a few of the greatest tales of 2026: the way forward for U.S.-Mexico-Canada relations amid a commerce deal evaluate and the World Cup, the race for the subsequent United Nations secretary-general, and key elections throughout the area.
In latest a long time, the politics and economies of Canada, Mexico, and the USA have turn into so intertwined that leaders’ summits between the international locations earned the nickname the Three Amigos.
U.S. President Donald Trump examined the bounds of that friendship final yr by way of tariffs, threats to desert a trilateral commerce deal, and harsh immigration restrictions that would undermine the success of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which shall be held throughout the three international locations.
This summer time, the international locations will face a deadline for whether or not to scrap, maintain, or tweak the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA) commerce deal that took impact in 2020—simply because the soccer event will get underway. The destiny of each will have an effect on the all-important North American relationship.
USMCA was negotiated throughout Trump’s first time period, changing the North American Free Commerce Settlement. It has a built-in evaluate course of that is because of conclude by July 1. Mexico and Canada want to see the deal prolonged in one thing near its present kind, whereas Trump’s commerce consultant, Jamieson Greer, not too long ago stated that the USA had thought-about exiting the deal and changing it with separate bilateral agreements.
In personal, U.S. negotiators seem dedicated to the deal, senior Canadian officers have stated. However Trump’s unpredictability, particularly on commerce, implies that the destiny of the deal is an open query. U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico final yr already slowed progress in each international locations; some consultants say the levies violated the USMCA.
The result of the USMCA evaluate may present readability on the place U.S. tariff ranges will in the end settle. For Mexico and Canada, a pointy departure from present USMCA guidelines would drive an initially painful reorganization of their overseas commerce relations. Some 75 % of Canada’s exports and 80 % of Mexico’s at present go to the USA.
The World Cup, for its half, may have an effect on public opinion of the USA in Mexico and the broader area. Internet hosting the event is a chance for any nation to spice up its smooth energy. However this yr’s version is already marred by worries about how the Trump administration’s anti-migrant stance may have an effect on some followers, particularly these from Latin America and the Caribbean.
America hosted a world event of soccer golf equipment final yr. Throughout that occasion, U.S. authorities detained an asylum-seeker dwelling in the USA who was on the way in which to a recreation and later deported him. (He was initially detained for unauthorized use of a drone.) The White Home envoy for the World Cup stated final month that Trump wouldn’t rule out immigration raids at this yr’s event.
Such raids may have an effect on individuals from Latin America and the Caribbean who’re at present in the USA, and a few of these dwelling exterior the nation may be blocked from attending the event altogether due to Trump’s journey bans.
That’s the case for Haitian soccer followers, at the same time as Haiti has certified for the World Cup for the primary time in 50 years. Trump banned Haitians from getting into the USA in June. As of December, the White Home had issued an exemption for soccer gamers, however not followers.
By final June, public opinion of the USA in Brazil and Mexico had turned extra destructive underneath Trump, based on a Pew survey. A World Cup characterised by deportations and blocked followers may speed up the pattern.
If Mexico offers an particularly constructive expertise for vacationers, that would hasten a special sample. The variety of guests to the nation was on observe to interrupt a document in 2025, based on authorities knowledge by October. Whereas U.S. tourism is rising dimmer, that of neighboring Mexico is shining brighter.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva gestures in the course of the opening ceremony of the Brazil-Paraguay Integration Bridge in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, on Dec. 19, 2025.Evaristo Sa/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Peru will all maintain presidential elections this yr, and the contests within the first two international locations can have implications properly past their borders.
Due to time period limits, Colombia will bid farewell to leftist President Gustavo Petro, who sought—with combined success—to depart from the hard-line conflict on medication, to extend Bogotá’s foreign-policy independence from Washington, and to spur a worldwide coalition of nations to maneuver away from dependence on oil and gasoline.
Petro’s approval ranking sits at round 40 % or decrease, which bodes poorly for his ally and potential successor, Iván Cepeda. With a extra conservative president, Colombia’s power and safety insurance policies may take a pointy flip, and it may be a part of the area’s column of pro-Trump international locations.
A loss for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who’s searching for a fourth time period in workplace, may have an analogous end result. A rightward shift in Brazil can be consequential for the area. It could lead on the nation to scale down its ambitions to form the agenda of worldwide south international locations, an indicator of Lula’s administration. It may also gradual Brazil’s work on street, rail, and port infrastructure initiatives to higher bodily combine South American economies.
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, who took workplace in November, goals to open the nation’s lithium reserves to extra personal funding. In the meantime, Brazil’s legislature is debating a draft essential minerals coverage that will channel a few of the nation’s uncooked supplies into native processing vegetation.
China is pitching itself as a accomplice for Latin American governments to spice up their home industries associated to essential minerals. The Trump administration has introduced up essential minerals in its talks with a number of Latin American governments and pledged to cooperate on essential minerals investments with Argentina. The European Union has additionally touted the matter as a possible space of cooperation.
Whether or not Latin American international locations can use their essential minerals as a springboard to industrial progress and regionally made applied sciences is a query that can outline the century, not simply this yr. Nevertheless it’s clear that if Latin American international locations don’t set their very own essential minerals insurance policies, superpowers could also be concerned about setting the foundations of engagement for them.
Samuel Moncada, Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations, speaks throughout a U.N. Safety Council assembly on U.S. army actions towards Venezuela, at U.N. headquarters in New York on Dec. 23, 2025. Angela Weiss/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
The United Nations will select its subsequent secretary-general this yr, and a casual customized stipulates that it’s Latin America and the Caribbean’s flip to area the chief. In latest months, calls have additionally grown for the U.N. to call its first feminine secretary-general. Lula is amongst those that got here out in favor of electing a lady to the place final yr.
Chile’s outgoing administration nominated former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet for the place, although President-elect José Antonio Kast has not stated whether or not he’ll preserve the nomination. Costa Rica nominated former Vice President Rebeca Grynspan. Each have senior U.N. management expertise.
Mexican Pure Sources Secretary Alicia Bárcena and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley are additionally being informally eyed as candidates.
The Trump administration, in the meantime, has thrown its weight behind a male candidate: Rafael Grossi, the Argentine head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Argentina’s authorities formally nominated Grossi, who has advised a renewed concentrate on the U.N.’s authentic mandate to stop conflict. The Trump administration has criticized U.N. efforts to deal with gender and local weather points on the worldwide stage.
Echoing some U.S. critiques, Bachelet and Grynspan have additionally referred to as for the U.N. to turn into extra environment friendly and return to its first ideas. However a profitable candidate will want backing from far past Washington.
The toll of organized crime in Latin America has turn into one of many area’s prime election points. It has additionally attracted main consideration and army assets from the Trump administration.
That doesn’t imply that the USA is mechanically setting international locations’ safety insurance policies, nonetheless. Final yr, Mexico pushed again towards the White Home’s proposed strategy to drug trafficking, which included potential U.S. strikes on Mexican soil, the Washington Publish reported. As a substitute, Mexico took its personal steps to curb cartel motion, decreasing homicides and persuading the USA to again down.
In 2026, different international locations within the area will take their very own new steps on safety coverage. Chile’s Kast, who shall be inaugurated in March, has pledged to step up the army’s position in anti-crime patrols and lengthen incarcerations. Crime is predicted to be a number one problem in elections in Colombia and Peru.
Some Latin American leaders might proceed to endorse purported U.S. anti-cartel actions within the area—most notably associated to Venezuela—to remain on the Trump administration’s good aspect. However there are dangers to this strategy. If the White Home escalates its strain marketing campaign towards Venezuela, it could turn into tougher to defend to Latin American publics.
