Few governments greeted Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency with as a lot enthusiasm as that of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And few confronted better disappointment.
Modi was one of many first world leaders to satisfy Trump after his inauguration, and India rapidly launched commerce talks in recognition that commerce was now a central axis of U.S. international coverage.
Few governments greeted Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency with as a lot enthusiasm as that of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And few confronted better disappointment.
Modi was one of many first world leaders to satisfy Trump after his inauguration, and India rapidly launched commerce talks in recognition that commerce was now a central axis of U.S. international coverage.
But hopes for elevating the India-U.S. strategic partnership got here crashing down by August, when Trump raised the tariff on Indian items to 50 p.c. A part of the issue was Modi’s misreading of Trump’s grand delusions about peacemaking, particularly relating to India’s army clashes with Pakistan. Had Modi been extra effusive about Trump’s function in saving the subcontinent from itself, issues might need unfolded a bit of in another way between New Delhi and Washington.
Modi’s advisors had an honest grasp of the coalition that propelled Trump again into the White Home. But they had been blindsided by the ability and fervor of the MAGA motion, which turned on India and its diaspora with sudden power. Since then, New Delhi has calibrated its strategy, which now rests on three rules: keep away from public arguments with Trump regardless of his repeated claims (that New Delhi thinks are false) of getting ended India’s struggle with Pakistan; reward his peace efforts in Gaza and Ukraine; and maintain the broader U.S. system engaged on commerce, expertise, and protection.
In 2026, New Delhi sees extra political area opening in Washington as Trump’s home standing reveals indicators of abrasion. India’s technique now activates three axes.
First, mobilizing conventional pro-India constituencies—the safety institution, the U.S. Congress, enterprise teams, and diaspora networks that fell silent beneath the burden of Trump’s dominance in 2025. In the event that they had been reluctant to talk up earlier than, then a few of them may now assist rebalance the connection. New Delhi additionally is aware of that it should discover a solution to make inroads with at the least elements of the MAGA coalition.
Second, India is decided to keep away from one other disaster with Pakistan which may invite Trump’s meddling. A recent spherical of army battle may place India on the receiving finish of Trump’s wild impulses as soon as once more.
Third, and most consequential, New Delhi is accelerating its diversification technique. The tariff shock pushed India to broaden export locations, fast-track commerce talks with Europe, and broaden financial hyperlinks with Russia and different rising markets. In safety coverage, India is hedging extra intentionally—sustaining the U.S. partnership whereas easing tensions with China, deepening ties with Russia, and strategically participating with Europe.
Similar to folks, nations get used to ache. As Modi learns to handle Trump’s tariffs, he has found that standing agency in opposition to Washington’s bullying performs properly at dwelling and earns respect overseas. For India’s conventional skeptics of the USA, Trump’s second time period is a reminder to not place too many strategic eggs within the U.S. basket. For the optimists, the turbulence of 2025 might but give solution to a greater footing in 2026 as Trump descends from the 12 months’s Olympian political heights. Underlying that optimism is India’s wager that greater than 25 years of bipartisan U.S. funding in a strategic partnership with it’s unlikely to be destroyed in a 12 months or two by even probably the most unpredictable White Home.
