INDIANAPOLIS — Fernando Mendoza firmly established himself as the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft months ago, winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to a national title. But if Mendoza opted not to transfer from Cal to Indiana last winter and entered the NFL Draft instead, would he have been as highly touted a prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft?
One longtime NFL scout believes so, telling me that Mendoza would’ve been drafted by the Tennessee Titans with the No. 1 overall pick instead of Cam Ward.
“I still think Ward will struggle overall for a while,” the scout told me. “I don’t see an elite processor with him, even though he’s got the arm traits.”
While other league sources I spoke with agreed that Mendoza would have been at the top of last year’s quarterback draft class, not everyone fell in line with that thought process.
“He would have been No. 3 for me last year behind Jaxson Dart and Cam Ward,” an NFL personnel executive told me. “He’s a pocket QB with quick eyes and a quick release. He processes coverage and pressure at a high rate. Good arm strength and excellent accuracy. He’s tough and shows poise in high-stress situations. Excellent make-up. NFL starter.”
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Mendoza will be front and center as the NFL community descends on Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine this week. Even though Mendoza has said he will not throw on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, coaches and scouts will get a chance to interact with Mendoza this week, and he’s expected to hold a traditional media session with reporters.
FOX Sports draft analyst Rob Rang praised Mendoza for the gutsy way he played late in games on his way to leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated 16-0 season and the national title, displaying an ability to throw with accuracy and anticipation in critical moments of the game.
“A lot of times you get quarterbacks who don’t have enough courage to throw the ball with anticipation and just trust that they have enough velocity and accuracy to make the throw,” Rang told me. “And he does. … But I do think you need to surround him with some legitimate playmakers to guarantee he’s going to be successful.”
Rang said he would have ranked Mendoza as his top quarterback in last year’s draft.
“I wasn’t a big Cam Ward guy, at least not as much as everyone else,” Rang said. “And I’ve been very impressed by some of the backyard plays that he was again able to make in the NFL, just like he did at Miami and WSU.
“Mendoza maybe isn’t the trick shot artist [that Ward is], but he also isn’t as likely to have the peaks and valleys in his game as Cam Ward had. And certainly, Mendoza is a more gifted passer than Shedeur [Sanders], and I’m not at all surprised he had some success with the Browns. I had Shedeur as the top quarterback last year and had to eat a lot of humble pie when he fell as far as he did. To me, last year, Mendoza would have been the first pick had he played this well a year ago.”
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NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said he’d have Mendoza a tick over C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young from the 2023 draft. However, he would put Mendoza behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels from the highly-touted 2024 draft.
“I gave him the same grade that I gave Cam Ward,” Jeremiah said in a conference call last week. “So, you cannot be more polar opposite as players. With Cam Ward, it was kind of the off-schedule magic that he had, to go along with a loose, fluid motion. Everything he did was smooth. He could kind of fade away and throw the ball wherever he wanted.
“Whereas Mendoza is a little more robotic in his movement than Cam, but still has a strong arm. I think he does a really good job of protecting the football. Both of them excelled in the RPO game. I think you want to have that element in your offense if your [Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint] Kubiak, just because he’s so comfortable and is a great decision maker there.”
Along with his decision-making, poise and toughness made Mendoza the clear No. 1 quarterback in this year’s class, the longtime NFL scout told me.
“I saw him live vs. Oregon in season,” the scout told me. “I like what I’ve heard about him character-wise; he’s built for both success and adversity. I liked his processing and decisions. There’s a huge learning curve coming his way, but he can handle it.
“He has to be at the top of this class, I would think, having seen Carson Beck and Cade Klubnik.”
