2025 NFL MVP Inventory Watch: Baker Mayfield Establishes Himself as New Frontrunner

Now in his third season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, quarterback Baker Mayfield has proven he’s one of the elite throwers in the league. So much so that Mayfield’s arm has now firmly placed him at the top of the MVP discussion. 

A big-play hunter with pinpoint accuracy, Mayfield is putting up prolific numbers once again this season. The Oklahoma product is No. 4 in the league in passing yards (1,283), tied for third in passing touchdowns (10) and ninth in passer rating (104.4). 

But three things stand out for Mayfield this season. First, he’s taking care of the football. Over the last two years entering this season, Mayfield led the league in interceptions with 26. But through five games this season, Mayfield has just one interception. Mayfield said limiting those miscues was a point of emphasis this offseason.

Along with that, Mayfield is continuing to dial up big plays. Tampa Bay has 20 passing plays of 20-plus yards. Only the Los Angeles Rams (24) have more. Finally, Mayfield has been clutch in critical moments of the game. Mayfield’s posted a career-high and NFL-best four fourth-quarter comebacks this season. 

Tampa Bay has trailed in the final minute of the fourth quarter in all five games but still leads the NFC South with a 4-1 record. Mayfield was one of the biggest movers this week in this week’s MVP odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook, jumping from +1800 to +800. 

Josh Allen remains the favorite at +150. Patrick Mahomes moved just behind Allen at +400, followed by Mayfield at +800. Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love round out the top five, with each holding +1200 odds to win the award.

Lamar Jackson, who missed last week with a hamstring injury, dropped to +2500. 

Here’s my top five for MVP Watch heading into Week 5.

1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: No. 5)

Mayfield’s ability to push the ball down the field has been a big weapon for the Buccaneers this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield is fourth in the NFL in deep passing yards (passing attempts traveling 20-plus yards) with 681, along with a league-high five touchdowns on those throws. He’s also third in passing yards under pressure (440). 

Mayfield’s favorite target this season has been rookie Emeka Egbuka, who’s the frontrunner for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Egbuka has 25 catches, 445 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions through five games this season, becoming the first player in league history with at least 25 receptions, 400 receiving yards and five touchdowns in his first five games of his pro career. 

Odds to win MVP: +800

2. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (Last week: No. 2)

Stafford leads the league in passing yards with 1,503. Over the last two games, Stafford has completed 67% of his passes for 764 yards, with six touchdown passes and no interceptions for a 116.9 passer rating.

The balky back that kept Stafford out of practice during training camp seems to be a thing of the past. And the Rams continue to do a good job of protecting their franchise quarterback. Stafford has been sacked just nine times through five games. 

At 37, Stafford can still make throws like this dot to Tutu Atwell. 

Odds to win MVP: +1200

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (Last week: No. 1)

Did Allen catch the turnover bug again? One of the few weaknesses of Allen heading into this season was his proclivity for turning the ball over. But he seemed to have fixed that through the first part of the season. 

Allen had zero interceptions through the first three games of the year. But over the last two weeks, Allen has three turnovers, including an interception and a lost fumble in a close home loss to the New England Patriots, causing the reigning MVP to drop from the top spot in the weekly ranking. 

Odds to win MVP: +150

4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (Last week: No. 4)

Mahomes and the Kansas City offense look more explosive this season, especially over the last two weeks. Mahomes threw for 318 yards and had two total touchdowns in his team’s late-game loss on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

However, Mahomes threw an interception that led to a 99-yard return for a score by linebacker Devin Lloyd. And after going 11-0 in one-score games last season, the Chiefs are 0-3 in those situations this year. Things don’t get any easier for Mahomes and the 2-3 Chiefs, who face the Detroit Lions in Week 6.

Odds to win MVP: +400

5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (Last week: Unranked)

Goff has proven he doesn’t need Ben Johnson calling plays to perform at an elite level in the league. Goff leads the league in touchdown passes (12) and is second in passer rating (120.7). The Lions are 4-1 and have an argument to be considered as the best team in the league at this point in the season.

The Lions have also kept Goff upright for the most part, with just eight sacks this year. Per Next Gen Stats, Goff completed 17 of 19 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns from clean pockets in a Week 5 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, his third-most yards per attempt (12.1) when not pressured as Detroit’s quarterback.

Odds to win MVP: +1500

Honorable mention: Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Puka Nacua. 

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.

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