Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Bettors were treated to a wild weekend in NFL Week 3 odds and college football Week 4 odds.
There were upsets and crazy covers and walk-off field-goal wins and field-goal blocks run back for touchdowns and multiple pick-sixes.
In times like those, it pays to know when to quit while you’re ahead. That was certainly the case for a Fanatics Sportsbook customer, who made a prudent business decision and turned $1,000 into more than $70,000.
More on that bet, major wagers and other notable plays in NFL and college football betting.
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Parlay Partay
Last week at Fanatics, sometime before the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Thursday night game, a bettor put together a $1,000 nine-leg parlay. The ticket was composed mostly of NFL moneyline plays — meaning the teams selected just needed to win their games — along with a little MLB and some tennis.
The Bills were the biggest favorite on that parlay, at -750. Buffalo got all it could handle before prevailing 31-21. The Washington Commanders had little trouble with the Las Vegas Raiders, winning 41-24. Ditto for the Indianapolis Colts, 41-20 winners over the Tennessee Titans.
But the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers made things much more interesting. Pittsburgh needed a late touchdown to beat New England 21-14.
Tampa Bay, facing the New York Jets, was in one of those aforementioned wild endings. The Jets blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown to take a 27-26 lead with 1:49 remaining. But the Bucs rebounded with a successful field-goal drive to win 29-27.
As all that was unfolding Sunday, Fanatics was increasing its cash-out offer to the bettor, who had eight legs in. The customer could ride it out at +18314 odds — about 183/1 — and hope the Green Bay Packers won, for a profit of $183,140. Or take the cash-out for $70,378.70.
Wisely, the bettor took the cash-out. Green Bay, a 7.5-point road favorite, lost 13-10 on a final-second 55-yard field goal.
Timing is everything, right?
Moneyline Messes
Speaking of the Packers, a Caesars Sports customer put $39,000 on Green Bay moneyline -440, to potentially win $8,863.64. It was a seemingly safe bet, with the Packers a strong favorite.
And although it’s one of those bet-a-lot-to-win-a-little wagers (relatively speaking), you can’t argue with an ROI of 22%.
But it’s only a return on investment if you actually get a return on investment.
With the Packers’ stunning 13-10 loss, the wager was a $39,000 donation to the house.
A couple other moneyline plays on big favorites met a similar fate over the weekend. On Saturday at DraftKings Sportsbook, a bettor put $8,000 on Clemson moneyline -850 vs. Syracuse, to win a modest $940.80.
A -850 favorite is a huge favorite. Generally a shoo-in. But Syracuse was having none of it, rolling to a 34-21 road upset.
On the flip side, a DraftKings customer dropped $50,000 on a moneyline underdog Saturday. The bettor took Illinois +210 to upset Indiana.
It’s not as if the Fighting Illini were a long shot. They entered the game ranked ninth in the nation, notably higher than No. 19 Indiana. So it was a potentially good opportunity to win $105,000 (total payout $155,000).
But Indiana took Illinois to the proverbial woodshed, posting a 63-10 blowout.
And on the flip-flip side, an Eagles backer got a huge sweat and a sizable win at Caesars Sports. The customer plunked down $160,000 on Philly moneyline -195 vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
L.A. led 26-7 early in the third quarter. Philadelphia rallied to take a 27-26 lead, but was still in position to lose when the Rams lined up for a 44-yard field goal in the final seconds.
Then 336-pound nose tackle Jordan Davis blocked the kick and returned it 61 yards for a touchdown.
Eagles 33, Rams 26. And the bettor pocketed $82,051 in profit (total payout $242,051).
Parlay Partay, Part II
A high-roller at Hard Rock Bet decided to put down a massive $545,000 on a five-leg parlay of heavy favorites. The ticket:
- Vanderbilt moneyline -5000 vs. Georgia State.
- Notre Dame moneyline -5000 vs. Purdue.
- Bills-Dolphins alternate total Over 38.5 (-625).
- Bills alternate spread -3 (-476) vs. Dolphins
- Saquon Barkley alternate rushing yards total Over 24.5 (-10000).
As Vandy’s odds would counsel, the Commodores rolled 70-21. Ditto for Notre Dame, which received 56-30.
In Payments-Dolphins, the usual complete for the Thursday evening recreation was 49.5/50.5. So though Buffalo’s 28-21 win didn’t clear these numbers, it simply eclipsed the alternate 38.5.
And on the usual level unfold, the Payments have been 11.5-point house favorites. They didn’t beat that unfold, however simply beat the -3 alternate quantity.
Lastly, whereas Barkley didn’t have a giant floor recreation within the Eagles’ 33-26 victory, he nonetheless simply cleared 24.5 yards, ending with 46 yards.
With 5 hefty favorites, the revenue on that half-a-million-dollar-plus wager was $262,036 (complete payout $807,036).
Right here’s Hoping You Had It
Defensive touchdowns definitely occur, however not with regularity.
Getting one in a recreation is a pleasant bonus. Getting two is a big deal.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Minnesota Vikings have been +8000 to attain two defensive touchdowns Sunday towards the Cincinnati Bengals. Not solely did the Vikes get two, however each got here from the identical participant.
Isaiah Rodgers had an 87-yard pick-six within the first quarter, adopted by a 66-yard scoop-and-score off a fumble within the second quarter of Minnesota’s 48-10 rout.
In the event you’d simply put 10 bucks on that prop wager, you then’d be sitting on $800 revenue. 100 bucks down would’ve netted $8,000.
Pinpoint Accuracy
You don’t must win 5 – 6 figures to have trigger for celebration. I definitely don’t, anyway.
Nor does a FanDuel Sportsbook buyer who put a mere $15 on this attention-grabbing prop wager: Appropriate last rating of Thursday’s Dolphins-Payments conflict.
It was a decent recreation all through, with Miami exhibiting a number of battle. In reality, down 28-21, the Dolphins drove to the Payments’ 21-yard line, poised to attain a TD and tie it up, which might’ve ruined that wager.
However Tua Tagovailoa then threw an interception with 3:06 remaining. Buffalo’s ensuing drive ended with a subject objective, sealing the 31-21 win.
At hefty odds of +12500 (125/1), that wrapped up an enormous ROI win of $1,875 for the bettor.
A lot as I take pleasure in these bet-a-little-to-win-a-lot wagers, I nonetheless have to complete with …
I Like Massive Bets and I Can not Lie
Massive cash was flying round in Las Vegas and throughout the nation on NFL Week 3 odds and faculty soccer Week 4 odds.
The biggest wager of all landed at DraftKings. A buyer put a whopping $277,731.30 (sure, 30 cents too) on Bengals-Vikings complete Over 41.5 (-115).
It proved to be the no-sweat wager of the week. Minnesota’s output alone exceeded the whole, because the Vikings rolled 48-10, giving the bettor a lofty win of $241,505.48 (complete payout $519,236.78).
There was additionally that $160,000 Eagles moneyline wager talked about above. Different notable main wagers within the NFL, together with three six-figure Texans performs that each one went fallacious:
- $218,000 Texans +105 (-109) vs. Jaguars (Caesars). That was an expensive lesson learned. The game was tied at 10 well into the fourth quarter, but Houston gave up a late TD and lost 17-10.
- $112,000 Texans +1.5 vs. Jaguars (Caesars). See previous bet.
- $100,000 Texans moneyline +105 vs. Jaguars (DraftKings). Yet another donation to the house on Houston.
- $50,000 Cowboys moneyline -125 vs. Bears (DraftKings). Dallas got shut out in the second half, losing 31-14.
- $50,000 Dolphins +12 vs. Bills (DraftKings). Miami made a game of it, but lost 31-21.
As if all these intestine punches weren’t sufficient, that is simply the dangerous beat of the week: A $75,000 wager on Rams +4.5 vs. the Eagles, at Caesars Sports activities.
L.A. blew all of a 26-7 lead, trailing 27-26 within the last minutes. However the Rams have been nonetheless masking as 4.5-point underdogs, so a $68,181 win was nonetheless in sight for the bettor.
That’s, till place-kicker Josh Karty’s 44-yard subject objective was blocked and returned for a landing as time expired.
Eagles 33, Rams 26.
Oof.
Which makes this time to remind you that we’re speaking about sports activities betting. It’s playing. So please maintain it affordable. By no means wager greater than you possibly can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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