With the first round of the College Playoff kicking off, I know fans are more interested in the marquee matchups of Miami-Texas A&M and Alabama-Oklahoma.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m into those games, too.
However, there’s a lopsided matchup that I think everyone should have an eye on and maybe even set aside a few bucks for a wager.
Here’s what I’m backing in the first round of the 2025 CFP.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
No. 9 Alabama @ No. 8 Oklahoma
Here’s a rematch of Bama-OU to kick off the College Football Playoff. Earlier this season, Oklahoma got the 23-21 victory over Alabama.
The Sooners won that game by forcing multiple turnovers, but Alabama outplayed them for 60 minutes. Oklahoma had a 5% post-game win expectancy but managed to get out of Alabama with the win.
It would be easy to look at that result and just blindly wager on Alabama to win this game, but I’m going with the home team to win.
The best unit in this game is the Oklahoma defense. The Sooners are seventh in yards per play, second in success rate and sixth-best in the country on third down. These numbers include playing against five teams in the top 22 of offensive efficiency.
OU’s defense is facing an Alabama offense that’s too one-dimensional to win a road game against this kind of unit. Bama’s offense is 84th in rushing success rate and 126th in yards per rush, excluding sacks.
Yikes.
The Tide offense has faced four SEC teams in its five games. It scored 9, 21, 27 and 7. Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop this group, and I expect Oklahoma’s defense to have an awesome plan.
On the flip side, I am concerned about Oklahoma’s offense. The Sooners rank 95th in yards per play, 110th in rushing success rate and 80th on third down. However, Alabama’s defense is prone to allowing explosive plays and doesn’t get to the quarterback.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer will be the healthiest he’s been since his wrist injury, which I’d imagine could jump start more offensive success.
I like Oklahoma to cover this game.
I also like a prop and that’s Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer to have over 13.5 rushing attempts.
He’s been over this number in four games this season, and he’s eclipsed that number in some of the biggest matchups — Michigan, Texas, Tennessee and at Missouri in a close one.
His legs are valuable for the Oklahoma offense and, with rest, he will be healthy. Oklahoma has to use his legs in this contest.
PICK: Oklahoma (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
PICK: John Mateer Over 13.5 rushing attempts
No. 12 James Madison @ No. 5 Oregon
I feel like this handicap is simple for me: All 22 of Oregon’s starters will be the best players James Madison has seen the entire season.
With that in mind, the Dukes do deserve to be here. They’ve had a fantastic season and won the Sun Belt Championship after running the table in conference play. They’re led by their defense, which is eighth in points per drive and first in success rate.
I’m having a difficult time trying to understand what these numbers mean against Oregon because JMU has yet to play an offense like the Ducks.
On the flip side is the Oregon defense, which is sixth in yards per play and 10th in points per drive. It’s a defense that’s outstanding at limiting explosive plays, which is what James Madison’s offense is. The Dukes have a ton of plays that are not successful, but then running back Wayne Knight will have a 50-yard rushing touchdown.
Because of that, JMU is routinely in third-and-long situations (48%) which is less than ideal against an Oregon pass defense that just doesn’t allow many yards.
I think there’s a narrative that Oregon doesn’t play well in these games since the Ducks struggled with Idaho in the first game of the 2024 season. The good news is we have a season full of data from 2025 to show that they have dominated games this year as favorites of three touchdowns or more.
Oregon covered against Montana State (-29.5), Oklahoma State (-28.5), Oregon State (-33.5), Rutgers (-18) and Minnesota (-26.5). The Ducks failed to cover 24.5 against Northwestern after NW scored two late touchdowns after being down 34-0. Oregon also failed to cover against Wisconsin in a monsoon and with Dante Moore leaving just after halftime.
I like Oregon to cover 20.5
PICK: Oregon (-20.5) to win by more than 20.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
