Voters who swung to Trump in 2024 are against his Iran war : NPR

Voters who helped reelect President Trump in 2024 say they don’t support his decision to go to war in Iran and instead want to see U.S. tax dollars spent tackling mounting economic pressures facing most Americans.

NPR observed two online focus groups on Tuesday night with 12 voters from Michigan who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and then swung to Trump in 2024. These groups included eight self-described independents, two Republicans and two Democrats. The focus groups were part of the Swing Voter Project conducted by messaging group Engagious and market research firm Sago. NPR is a partner on the project.

Out of the 12 focus group participants, nine said they disapprove of what the U.S. is doing in Iran. And 11 of the 12 reported feeling more anxious about the economy now than they did before Trump took office again.

Rich Thau, president of Engagious and the moderator of both groups, said some of these voters directly attributed some of their economic concerns to military action abroad.

“People are very stressed about the economy, and the attacks on Iran have added to that stress,” he said. “They’ve seen gas prices spike. They have a fear of traveling. … So, they’re stressed. And when they’re stressed, they’re less likely to spend money — they’re less likely to go out. And they’re just concerned about their futures.”

Linzi B., a 48-year-old independent voter, was among the voters who have misgivings about U.S. military action in Iran. (Participants agreed to be part of the focus groups on the condition that they be identified by their first names and last initials only.)

Linzi said she isn’t “even sure yet” why the U.S. started bombing Iran, “considering all the various versions” of reasons she has heard from the Trump administration.

“And the enormous cost of war in terms of what it does to our economy, what it does to the world economy,” she said, “when we have enormous need within our own societies in Michigan, there are families, there are children, there are enormous levels of poverty, and that needs help. We need to help our own citizens first before we go to Iran, Iraq, I don’t know, anywhere else to fight their wars for them.”

While focus groups don’t provide statistically significant results like a poll does, they do provide some insight into what small groups of voters make of what’s happening in the country.

And in this case, the participants’ sentiments match the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted last week, which found that most Americans oppose U.S. military action in Iran.

The three participants who backed the war cited Iran’s long history of antagonism toward the U.S. and its allies.

But Gina S., a 41-year-old Republican who approves of Trump’s job performance, still opposes the decision to go to war in Iran, making a connection to America’s long war in Iraq.

“I’m afraid that it’s going to turn into something that’s larger than what it is right now,” she said. “So when we went to Iraq, and it just went on and on and on, and I’m afraid that it will turn into something like that.”

U.S. relations with Israel

Several voters said they believe the United States’ relationship with Israel at least partially prompted the war in Iran. Recent polling from Gallup shows that Americans’ views on Israel have been shifting more negatively in recent years.

The focus groups’ swing voters expressed mixed feelings too. Five participants said they support America’s relationship with Israel, three said they oppose it and four said they’re neutral or don’t know enough to have an opinion.

Mark O., a 48-year-old Democrat, said that Israel remains a “safe harbor” for the Jewish people post-World War II and that the U.S. has an “obligation to support that relationship and to support that sovereign nation” and its people.

But Susan B., a 38-year-old Democratic-leaning voter, said she believes it is “not necessary for America to intervene always and fight Israel’s wars for them.”

“I do not understand this relationship,” she said. “I don’t see where our interests lie in this. How is this helping the American interest? That’s what we have yet to understand and [Trump] has yet to explain to us.”

Stephanie S., a 41-year-old independent voter, said she is concerned about “the amount of money that we’re sending over” to support Israel.

“It’s extreme,” she said. “A lot of money is going to Israel, and every time Israel says that they need more money, we are giving it.”

Brandon D., a 37-year-old independent voter, said he does “believe that Israel is a safe haven for Jews. And the only thing I do feel like maybe we could be a little bit more firm with them when it comes to Gaza and stuff like that, because I do feel like Israel overreaches in that department.”

But Brandon said, ultimately, he does have concerns about the rising costs of oil because of this war.

“I feel like we’re stretched too thin, and the cost of gas has gone up 20 cents in my neighborhood,” he said. “So I feel like we always have money for bombs, but no money for infrastructure.”

“I never ever see prices going down”

Nearly across the board, these voters reported feeling less secure financially since Trump took office again. When asked, they cited housing, health care, groceries and child care as the most concerning sources of economic stress.

Linzi said more than a year into Trump’s second term, she still sees rising costs on “everything.”

“I have to go to the grocery store every week, and every single week the cost of everything seems to be going up,” she said. “The tariffs have added prices to everything, and I never ever see prices going down.”

Stephanie J., a 35-year-old independent, said she doesn’t believe the administration is focused on addressing inflation, which was one of Trump’s key campaign promises during the 2024 race.

“We still seem to be supporting billionaires more than the middle class,” she said.

Thau, the moderator, said swing voters have been frustrated with the economy for some time, but Trump’s focus on military action abroad has made these frustrations deeper.

“What stood out for me with these Michigan swing voters is that they sounded as though the president has handed them another reason to disapprove of his job performance,” he said, “that it’s an unforced error. That they want him to focus on the economy and immigration, and instead he’s taking his eye off the ball.”